Just as deficits, government spending and taxes dominate much of the debate in the congressional midterm campaign, red ink rhetoric has also spilled onto the electoral terrain of many of the 37 gubernatorial races.
- Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley and his predecessor, Republican Bob Ehrlich, are trading charges over who was most fiscally irresponsible as governor, with O’Malley leading in the polls.
- In Pennsylvania, Republican state attorney general Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato, the Democratic Allegheny county executive, each arguing that he would be best at streamlining government.
- In Minnesota, Republican Tom Emmer contends the state’s gaping budget hole can be closed solely through spending cuts, while Democrat Mark Dayton takes the politically risky position in the close race that some taxes may need to be raised.
How fiscal issues play out with voters will help determine who controls statehouses — and congressional redistricting, according to political analysts and state government experts. The current political balance of 26 Democrats and 24 Republican governors is likely to change significantly, with 18 Republican and 19 Democratic governorships up for grabs. Republicans are ahead in 11 states they now hold, whereas Democrats are behind in 11 states they hold, according to Rasmussen Reports. Polls suggest Republican net gains of at least a half dozen statehouses, although 19 are not solidly in either party’s column. Among these are a striking number of traditional blue states including California, Maryland, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Illinois.
this fall. Democrats are on the ropes and find the other side
attacking them by tying them to Obama…”
Yet, the stinging accusations of robbing taxpayers, driving states deep into the red, and implicitly increasing the national debt by accepting federal stimulus funds are capturing voters’ attention, increasing their ire, and often confusing them. Andy Barth, Ehrlich’s press secretary, said: “For Maryland, the budget is pretty nearly the top issue.”
as the price to pay for lower state deficits.
Ehrlich charges the current administration in Annapolis with “spending at unsustainable levels and mortgaging our future.” O’Malley, who defeated Ehrlich four years ago, counters: “Over his four-year term, Bob Ehrlich increased state spending by more than any other governor in Maryland history.” There is truth and deception in both statements, as each candidate raised taxes while in the statehouse, but — as their allies say — they did so for the fiscally responsible purpose of meeting Maryland’s needs without plunging the state deeper into debt.
Obama administration fiscal policies — especially the massive stimulus package signed into law last year — are the target of many Republican candidates, despite the fact that governors of both parties overwhelmingly welcomed $246 billion of those funds to help close huge state budget deficits. Almost all have tacitly accepted higher federal deficits as the price to meet state legal requirements to balance their own budgets.
Tax increases are decidedly off the table for Republican candidates and largely in the shadows for Democrats, although incumbents have raised state sales and income taxes by a total of $26 billion in the last year, says Scheppach. Similarly, spending increases are rarely mentioned by Democrats. “I don’t know anyone with a platform to raise taxes, and no governor is going to have the ability for new spending programs,” Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers, said.
In Pennsylvania — where Obama won 54 percent of the vote in 2008 — the Republican, Corbett, is leading Onorato by 15 points. Both candidates are playing the popular anti-government card. They call for restoring faith in government, curbing special interests and increasing transparency, but Corbett has taken the offensive on budget issues.
Corbett pledges to oppose all taxes and crack down on a “state government (that) has grown out of control.” Short on specifics, he calls for rooting out corruption and waste, cutting administrative costs and introducing performance-based budgeting.
Onorato emphasizes his record of bringing greater efficiency and saving taxpayers “tens of millions of dollars” in Allegheny County. Trying to convince voters of his budgetary bona fides, he highlights modest accomplishments such as eliminating a handful of offices and consolidating emergency call centers.
eliminating excessive and unnecessary bureaucracies,
and spending will reduce naturally.”
The old industrial heartland and upper Midwest have turned into key battleground states where Republicans are poised to pick off states that have been more likely to elect Democrats. In Michigan, former computer executive Rick Snyder, a Republican, leads Virg Bernero, Democratic mayor of Lansing, by 13 to 21 points in the polls; a similar Republican blowout is brewing in Illinois, where Bill Brady is 8 points up on the Democratic incumbent, Pat Quinn, in a tightening race. In Ohio, Republican John Kasich has parlayed his former position as chairman of the House Budget Committee into a narrow lead over incumbent Ted Strickland.
Minnesota, a longtime progressive bastion that elected Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty in 2002, is an especially telling example of how anti-big government sentiment is boosting Republicans’ fortunes and reshaping Democratic rhetoric. Like virtually all Republicans this year, conservative state legislator Tom Emmer decries the state’s “major budget deficit,” but categorically rejects revenue increases, saying: “A long-term solution can be found in one place: spending.” His appealing, but improbable, solution is of the relatively painless variety. “We must reduce the size of government by eliminating excessive and unnecessary bureaucracies, and spending will reduce naturally.”
In the current anti-government, anti-tax climate, former Senator Mark Dayton, his liberal Democratic opponent, has said little about spending on pressing needs. Instead he touts his record as “a tough watchdog of the taxpayer’s dollar” as state auditor. However, Dayton does say that “there are no easy answers,” asserting that laying off every state employee and closing public universities for two years would not eliminate Minnesota’s $5.8 billion projected deficit over the next two years. Like President Obama, his most daring call to raise revenues is to increase income taxes on a sliver of the highest-income Minnesotans and property taxes on mansions.
Unlike the congressional races, neither party in the gubernatorial contests can easily blame the other or even the Obama administration, but only cast aspersions on their opponents. Budget issues loom large in statehouse races, but the Republicans’ national narrative about spendthrift Democrats and fiscally responsible Republicans can only seem to fit the facts when Democrats are incumbents. Even then, as Maryland shows, both parties can blame the other for their state’s fiscal problems.
Related Links:
In Age of Social Networks, Some Candidates Adapt Better than Others (The Fiscal Times)
State Budget Woes Threaten National Economy (The Fiscal Times)
Will2010 Repeat 1994 in Governors’ Races (Stateline)
