November 14, 2012
The record number of Hispanics who voted in the presidential election is likely to double in size within a generation, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, Election Day exit polls and a nationwide survey of Hispanics that was released today.
According to the center, 53 million Hispanics in this country make up 17 percent of the total U.S. population, and close to half of all eligible voters (about 12.5 million) cast their votes.
The Hispanic share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons: “The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation’s youngest ethnic group.” Their median age is 27 years old, and just 18 years old among native-born Hispanics – versus 42 years old for that of white non-Hispanics.
The center projects that Hispanics will account for 40 percent of the growth in the eligible voter base in the U.S. between now and 2030.
“Generational replacement alone will push the age- and citizen-eligible Latino electorate to about 40 million within two decades,” according to the report. “If the turnout rate of this electorate over time converges with that of whites and blacks in recent elections (66 percent and 65 percent respectively in 2008), that will mean twice as many Latino voters could be casting ballots in 2032 as did in 2012.”
The report, “An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate Is Likely to Double by 2030,” is available from the Pew Hispanic Center, www.pewhispanic.org a nonpartisan, non-advocacy research organization based in Washington, D.C.