Capital Exchange is a new blog featuring debate among some of Washington’s smartest budget and policy experts. –Eric Pianin, Washington Editor and Moderator
The political question is how the current course compares to alternatives. According to some remarkably wishful (when from editorial writers or centrists) or insincere (if from most Republican politicians) rhetoric, the president should "start over" on a "bipartisan" basis. The substantive gaps between the two parties on this issue are as wide as we have ever seen in American politics. Anyone who believes differently has not followed the debate. In order to see any prospect for bipartisanship you also have to believe that the Republicans have incentives or desire to agree on anything. There is no evidence that they do, short of total concession by the Democrats. I suppose a majority of Republicans might be found for blowing up the current insurance system and replacing it with a mix of tax credits and preferential treatment for health savings accounts, while privatizing Medicare and limiting Medicaid. But Democrats should be running against that, not supporting it.
The real choice for the Democrats is between stopping the effort and doing what Obama is doing. The argument for stopping says that the legislation is unpopular, that the Democrats have been digging themselves into a hole by pushing the effort, and that actually passing it would be equivalent to digging deeper and then ordering a backhoe to shovel the dirt on top of them. Some of the polling data can be used to support this analysis. It is clear that charges about a "government takeover," "ignoring the majority" and budget deficits resonates with much of the public.
Supporters of the president’s course reply that the Democrats have already been identified with the effort to pass a major reform. The portion of the public that strongly opposes the effort will still vote against Democrats just to make sure they don’t try it again. Hence the question is whether, once identified with the initiative, it is better to win or lose. Giving up now will not change the identification, but will add the stigma of being ineffectual losers. This will not help with centrists, will not reduce the anger of conservatives, but will depress the party base, likely reducing turnout for the Democrats in November. From this view, passing the two bills now is the best political strategy.
The Democrats do face a nasty choice, with major risks on either side. Yet neither view is convincing. I’m teaching introductory American politics at the moment, and it seems to me that each view ignores something that we try to make sure our students understand.
First, on most issues, there is no such thing as a stable "public opinion." People do have general attitudes, beliefs that they can use to evaluate a choice. But often voters hold different attitudes that would lead to different evaluations of the same choice. How they answer a question depends on which considerations have been raised in their minds most recently.
Therefore the analysts who predict Democratic defeats in November based on negative survey responses about health care reform now are making a fundamental error. The Republicans have shown great ability to raise considerations that push the evaluation in one direction. Yet some of that effort has been encouraged by the concerns conservative Democrats raised during the debate as they tried to make legislation better fit their preferences. They will not be making those arguments as they run for reelection. In the election campaign there would be far more spending on ads to defend the legislation. The press coverage may focus more on the actual provisions of the bill as opposed to the GOP charges. But focusing on the actual specifics will only be possible if there is a law that passed and can be defended. Democrats have to be able to point to something and say: "this is what we did, this is the truth about it, this is how it would help you." The Democrats also have to remember that the "losers who can’t deliver" consideration will be far more prominent in November if they pass nothing now. In short, the battle over interpretation of the health care reform effort has only begun. We do not know how it will turn out in November, but there are good reasons to believe the Democrats are better off fighting it with a new law in hand.
Therefore if the question were only "what’s the right strategy in general," introductory American politics tells us that the question is how to get the best set of considerations before the voters in the fall; and that favors passing the bills now. But that brings us to the second basic point: elections occur in individual districts. Sometimes there are national trends, and there should be one against the Democrats this year, no matter what they do. Yet districts and states vary greatly, and each member of Congress casts votes based on how he or she assesses their constituency, not the national trend.
This means that the political question is not how passing the bills would shape general public attitudes. It is how voting for the bills some time in the next month or so will affect the reelection prospects of perhaps 30-40 representatives and maybe 10 senators. The general factors I have identified may suggest that they are better off voting for the bills now, especially if they voted for the previous House or Senate bill. But their choices must depend on specific provisions of the final legislation (such as whether abortion is a problem in their district, in either direction); how much they have to worry about depressing the base in their district (such as whether the base is more or less liberal); the strength of their likely opponent; and many other factors.
So, is the president’s endgame strategy the right one? It is right on the substance (if you share my values) and right in terms of the legislative situation (even if you do not share my values). Whether it is good politics is impossible to say. All things considered, as a strategy to address public opinion concerns, passing the bills makes more sense than not. It likely is the best approach for the Democratic party’s image nationwide, and for the president’s.
But whether that strategy will work, in terms of passing the bills and limiting losses in November, simply cannot be known right now. Each of those depends on how the strategy works out, or is judged by legislators to work out, district by district and state by state.
Post your comment below or click here to read the next post in the series.
Joseph White is Director of the Center for Policy Studies at Case Western Reserve University.