3 Reasons to Bet the Euro Deal Will Work
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The Fiscal Times
October 31, 2011

Global stock markets today are reflecting the many uncertainties that still surround the eurozone rescue package European Union leaders announced in Brussels late last week. It is not yet clear how some of the EU’s plans will be financed, and a detailed blueprint that would save Greece from default, avoid similar crises elsewhere, and preserve the euro as the EU’s shared currency is still days or weeks away.

But there is cause for optimism nonetheless. The deal reached among EU leaders in the early hours of last Thursday morning broke significant new ground. It is effectively the workable framework of a plan that will rest on three main pillars:

  • Banks holding Greek debt will accept losses of 50 percent on their Greek securities. This has been the subject of intense negotiation for months and is by far the most important breakthrough achieved in Brussels last week. Nominally, accepting the write-downs is voluntary, so it remains to be seen how many banks will take up the offer. But as German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear during what turned out to be a tough round of negotiations, the only alternative left is a disorderly (and more costly) Greek default. In effect, it is an offer the banks can’t refuse.

  • The E.U.’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will be recapitalized. The fund currently has about €250 billion, or $355 billion, left in its account. This will have to be raised to at least €1 trillion and very likely up to €1.4 trillion. The interesting aspect of this part of the plan is the role Asians, notably the Chinese, seem willing to play. When a long-impoverished China comes to the rescue of the long-dominant West, you can’t help but think there’s a certain amount of gloating going on in Beijing.

  • European banks will have until next June to increase the proportion of their reserves relative to their lending portfolios from 6 percent to 9 percent. Early reports indicated that this would mean raising about €106 billion to strengthen banks against future calamities among their borrowers. But a lot of leading banks have already absorbed their Greek losses, and the remainder will have to raise an estimated €20 billion to €30 billion in fresh capital—not a life-altering sum.

The global financial markets told the story of this deal well enough late last week. They took a big upside bounce on Thursday in response to the announcement in Brussels that a framework for a rescue had been agreed upon. But by Friday they were edgy again, having considered some of the outstanding details, and the jitters are continuing today. The major European bourses were down, with the DAX dropping by 2.16 percent. As of mid-morning, the Dow was down by more than 100 points.

Chief among the details spooking the markets is Italy. With about €1.9 trillion in debt, it is simply too large to rescue, and European bankers plainly question Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s ability to deliver on a package of reforms intended to get the economy going. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition is weak, and the structural reforms he has promised would present a rigorous political challenge for any leader. Last Friday, a day after the Brussels deal was announced, Italian debt was priced at a record 6.06 percent, up from 5.86 percent just one month earlier. This was not, plainly enough, a vote of confidence.

Then there is Greece itself. Prime Minister George Papandreou is also in a politically fragile position, primarily because of painful austerity measures already introduced in parliament. To meet its obligations under the terms of the Brussels deal, Athens will have to move in two directions at once: On one hand, it is relying on the privatization of public-sector assets to finance the recapitalization of its banks. At the same time, Papandreou acknowledged last week that Athens might have to nationalize some banks to restructure them effectively. Is Papandreou getting the government out of the economy or moving further into it? And even if Greece’s plans are successful, Greek debt will still be 120 percent of GDP by 2020—the level of Italy’s debt-to-GDP now.

A correspondent, editor and critic for more than 30 years, mostly for the International Herald Tribune and The New Yorker, Patrick Smith has also lectured in journalism and media studies. He is the author of five books.