Critical Week Ahead for the Euro
Business + Economy

Critical Week Ahead for the Euro

Europe's sovereign-debt crisis, which has dragged on for more than two years, is entering a pivotal week, as leaders across the continent converge to prevent a collapse of the euro and a financial panic from spreading.

Expectations are rising that Friday's summit of 27 EU leaders will yield a breakthrough. An agreement on tighter integration of the 17 countries that use the single currency — especially on budget matters — would be seen as a crucial first step. That could trigger further emergency aid from the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund or some combination, analysts say.

The coming days "will decide if the euro will survive or not," Emma Marcegaglia, the head of Italy's industrial lobby, Confindustria, said Sunday.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Central Bank Chief Draghi, and even U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will star in a 5-day financial drama leading up to the summit.

If the summit is a failure, Sarkozy warned last week, "the world will not wait for Europe."

Sarkozy and Merkel meet in Paris on Monday to unveil a proposal for closer political and economic ties between eurozone countries. While the leaders differ on some of the details, their cooperation has been so tight they have come to be known by a single name — "Merkozy."

The two agree overall on the need for tougher rules that would prevent governments from spending or borrowing too much — and on certain penalties for persistent violators.

"Where we today have agreements, we need in the future to have legally binding regulations," Merkel said Friday.

Merkel wants to change the basic European Union treaty to reflect the tougher rules on eurozone countries and make them enforceable. Even if there is general agreement on Friday, actually putting new rules in place through treaty changes could take more than a year. And many economists fear the new rules alone would not be enough to halt the rise in Europe's borrowing costs.

The hope is that a firm expression of intent, however, would reassure the ECB, so that it can make stronger efforts in the short term. That would give governments time to get their finances under better control and make economic reforms that would improve growth.

The urgency has been heightened in recent weeks as Italy and Spain, the continent's third- and fourth-largest economies, face unsustainably high costs to finance their debts. For example, the yield on 10-year Italian bonds is around 7 percent. Yields above that level forced Ireland, Portugal and Greece to seek bailouts. By comparison, bond yields in Germany, Europe's largest and most stable economy, are roughly 2 percent.

The eurozone is threatened to face an existential situation if it becomes clear over the next few weeks that several member states cannot cover their refinancing needs, or can only do so at suicidal conditions," former German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told the Sunday edition of German tabloid Bild.

"Everything must be done to hinder the Eurozone from breaking up," he said.

Italy, whose sovereign debt is equivalent to 120 percent of the country's annual economic output, needs to refinance €200 billion ($270 billion) of its €1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion)of outstanding debt by the end of April.

The size of the problems facing Italy and Spain are considered too large for the existing funds available to the European Financial Stability Facility ($590 billion) and the IMF ($389 billion.) To boost the firepower of the IMF, several economists have proposed that the ECB lend to it.

"We are now entering the critical period," the EU's financial chief, Olli Rehn, said last Wednesday.

That same day, the U.S. Federal Reserve, in coordination with the ECB and four other central banks, sought to give stressed-out European banks some relief. The Fed announced a plan to make it cheaper for banks to borrow American dollars, which is the dominant currency of trade. It was the most extraordinary coordinated effort since October 2008, and it prompted a nearly 500 point rally in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Still, that help did not address the fundamental problem in Europe: unsustainable levels of government debt.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti will have that on his mind, when he unveils new austerity measures at a Cabinet meeting on Sunday. The measures will likely include reforms to require Italians to work longer before drawing pensions, a return of a property tax that Silvio Berlusconi's government abolished in 2008 and a "wealth" tax.

"The first move to save the euro is in Italian hands," Marcegaglia said.

In a sign of how all 17 eurozone nations see their fates as intricately linked, Dutch Premier Mark Rutte will be visiting Monti in Rome.

"It is really important that the markets see that Europe is prepared to help the countries in trouble, so long as those countries commit to very tough reforms and austerity programs," Rutte said.

Indeed, the debt loads of countries like Italy and Greece are everyone else's problem.

Germany's economy depends heavily on exports, and if economic output in the rest of Europe collapses, the people of smaller countries couldn't buy as many German goods. Across the Atlantic Ocean, the United States depends on Europe for 20 percent of its own exports. And investors in American banks have worried about their holdings of European debt.

The United States is ratcheting up its involvement.

Geithner will meet Tuesday in Germany with Draghi and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble. On Wednesday he travels to France for talks with Sarkozy and the prime minister-elect of Spain, Mariano Rajoy Brey. And Geithner will meet Monti in Milan just before the new Italian leader heads for the EU summit in Brussels.

On Wednesday, many of Europe's most important leaders will be in Marseille, France, for a meeting of the conservative-leaning European People's Party. Merkel, Sarkozy and Spain's new conservative prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, will all be there.

On Thursday, the ECB holds its monthly policy meeting. Many analysts expect one or more actions by the bank aimed at boosting growth and steadying the financial system.

One step would be to cut its key short-term interest rate from the current 1.25 percent. It made a surprise quarter-point cut at November's meeting. Another would be to extend loans to banks for up to two or three years, instead of the current limit of 13 months.

Even more significantly, ECB President Mario Draghi hinted last week that the bank could be willing to take a more direct and aggressive role in solving Europe's sovereign-debt crisis, so long as EU leaders agree to the coordinated belt-tightening being pushed by Merkel, Sarkozy and others.

"Other elements might follow, but the sequencing matters," he said in a speech Thursday.

The ECB extends unlimited short-term loans to banks. It cannot lend directly to governments, including by buying their national bonds. It can, however, buy national bonds on the secondary market, lowering borrowing costs for governments.

Many economists have urged the bank to sharply increase its purchases to help the most heavily indebted countries lower their borrowing costs and avoid potentially calamitous defaults.

The ECB has so far resisted expanding its support because it believes that would take the pressure off politicians to cut spending and reform government finances, a concern known as moral hazard. The ECB has also worried that injecting too much money into the European economy would trigger inflation.

Sarkozy and others say the stakes couldn't be higher.

"What will remain of Europe if the euro disappears?" Sarkozy asked. He then provided an answer: "Nothing."


Don Melvin from Brussels, Dave McHugh from Frankfurt, Sara DiLorenzo from Paris, Frances D'Emilio from Rome and Mike Corder from Amsterdam contributed

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press.