Pelosi's 'Expensive' Plan for More Coronvirus Aid

Pelosi's 'Expensive' Plan for More Coronvirus Aid

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Plus: the devastating economic outlook from the CBO
Friday, April 24, 2020

Pelosi's 'Expensive' Plan for More Coronvirus Aid — and What the White House Wants

President Trump signed the $484 billion pandemic relief package into law on Friday, but even before the ink was dry lawmakers had already shifted their focus to the next phase of stimulus legislation as the U.S. coronavirus death toll climbed past 50,000.

The new battle has begun: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters Friday that a fifth package would be ready before long — and, though she did not put a price tag on it, she reportedly said it will be “expensive.”

Bloomberg News reports: “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is gathering a long and expensive wish list from her fellow Democrats that would expand the social safety net as well as provide $500 billion to struggling state and local governments.” The total size of the stimulus package reportedly could run into the trillions.

Pelosi reportedly also warned that, despite Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s resistance to providing more money to state and local governments, “there will not be a bill” without such aid. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, said Friday that he is seeing “more momentum” for providing assistance to state and local governments. “[McConnell] is isolated. Republican senators, Republican governors have denounced him,” Schumer said in an interview with National Public Radio. “I hope McConnell comes to his senses, turns around and helps us get state and local. But if he doesn’t, I think there will be the momentum to defeat him.”

What the White House wants in the coronavirus stimulus: Before we get to the details, we’ll point out this remarkable line from Politico’s Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer: “You don’t have to pay much attention to what the president says about what he wants in this bill, since Congress and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin just got nearly $3 trillion in spending done without any meaningful engagement from him.”

That said, the administration is looking for three broad elements in the package, Sherman and Palmer report: “some sort of infrastructure measure, a tax break of some variety and policies that would help bring manufacturing back from China. Republicans both on Capitol Hill and in the White House view aid to state and local governments as the leverage point to achieve their policy goals.”

But the grand plans for $2 trillion in infrastructure spending are reportedly seen as infeasible right now, leaving the White House focused on a smaller but potentially bipartisan plan to boost 5G cellular technology and broadband access. And the administration’s idea for a payroll tax cut still faces stiff resistance in Congress. On China, the White House reportedly is looking to bring the manufacturing of PPE, drugs and other critical infrastructure back to the United States and may back tax breaks for companies that move toward that goal.

On the other hand, a big infrastructure package may not be dead yet. “If you’re spending another trillion dollars, unpaid for, Republicans would rather spend it on infrastructure than on direct aid to prop up states,” a senior Senate GOP staffer told Reuters.

How quickly will Congress move? Pelosi reportedly told Democrats this week that the legislation is nearly done and she has said it must happen “as soon as possible.” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters Thursday that the goal is to complete the package by May 4 and vote shortly after that. But the Trump administration and congressional Republicans reportedly say they have weeks until serious negotiations start. “There is a risk that the effort to write a comprehensive rescue bill gets bogged down for months or falters given how far apart both parties are now as well as the increasingly bitter exchanges over what should come next and who will be to blame if the economy doesn’t rebound,” Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan, Erik Wasson, and Steven T. Dennis write.

But if the small business assistance Trump signed into law on Friday runs out in days, as many expect, any push for additional small business bailouts could give Pelosi fresh leverage to demand aid for states.

Deficit Will Hit $3.7 Trillion This Year: CBO

It’s clear that the budget deficit will soar as the coronavirus wreaks havoc on the economy, but on Friday the Congressional Budget Office put a number on the expected shortfall in fiscal year 2020: $3.7 trillion.

The new analysis from CBO director Phill Swagel includes preliminary estimates for how the economy will perform through the end of 2021 — and some of the numbers are pretty shocking. Here’s a rundown:

  • The economy is projected to shrink by about 12% in the second quarter of 2020 — an annualized rate of 40%. For the full calendar year, GDP is projected to decrease by 5.6%.
  • The unemployment rate will average about 15% in the second and third quarters, up from less than 4% in the first quarter. The increase reflects the loss of 27 million jobs, with 8 million people leaving the labor force. 
  • The employment picture will begin to improve in the fourth quarter, but the labor market will struggle to recover completely, with the unemployment rate still at 9.5% at the end of 2021.
  • The national debt (federal debt held by the public) will rise to 101% of GDP in fiscal year 2020.
  • The deficit is projected to equal 17.9% of GDP in the current fiscal year and 9.8% of GDP in 2021, sharply higher than the 4.6% in 2019. 
  • Interest rates will remain at historically low levels, with 10-year Treasury notes averaging just 0.7% in 2021, only slightly higher than the current 0.6%.

The CBO said its analysis assumes there is no further legislation to provide additional federal aid to individuals, companies and state and local governments. If lawmakers and the White House are able to negotiate another relief package, as many expect, the deficit numbers would be that much larger.

Whatever the size of the deficit, the CBO noted that low interest rates are making increased debt loads more affordable. “Even with increased federal borrowing, declines in interest rates mean that net interest outlays will decline,” the report says.

Michael Linden of the Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal-leaning Washington group that advocates for a fairer economy, said that low interest rates should encourage policymakers to take further steps to keep the economy afloat. “It means spend money to boost the economy and don't worry about debt,” he wrote Friday.

Chart of the Week

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is tracking the trillions of dollars being poured into the national coronavirus response. Here’s its’ breakdown of what’s been enacted so far.

IRS Has Sent 88 Million Coronavirus Payments Totaling $158 Billion, With More on the Way

The Internal Revenue Service said Friday that it had issued 88.1 million Economic Impact Payments totaling nearly $158 billion as of April 17.

The tax agency also released a geographical breakdown of the payments. Unsurprisingly, California and Texas — the most populous states — top the list, with residents having received $15.9 billion and $14.4 billion, respectively. The highest average payments ($2,048) went to Utah, likely as a result of larger families in the state, while the lowest ($1,422) went to the District of Columbia, where higher incomes may have made many residents ineligible for the full direct payments, as The Wall Street Journal’s Richard Rubin notes.

Rubin reports that the next wave of IRS payments is set to go out over the next few days, with payments likely arriving by April 29. Those next payments, he says, will likely go to tax filers who provided the IRS with their bank information online by midday on April 22 and to Social Security beneficiaries who don’t file tax returns. “The IRS hasn’t released amounts, but this round of payments will put the $292 billion program of one-time payments—$1,200 per adult and $500 per child—well beyond its halfway point,” Rubin writes.

People waiting to get their payments by check may have to wait far longer — potentially months, in some cases — because the government is only able to print about 5 million checks a week, according to Rubin.

The IRS says that more than 150 million payments will be sent out in all. Here’s the agency’s breakdown of payments sent as of April 17 (you can also see the list on the IRS website):

Your Prize for Making It Through the Week

Check out what The Washington Post called "The first great Zoom music video."

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