FEMA Spent Half Its Disaster Fund in Less Than Two Weeks

It’s Friday! With 25 days to go until the election, former President Donald Trump wasn’t campaigning in a swing state but instead visited Colorado, a reliably Democratic state, to deliver remarks about immigration in Aurora, the Denver suburb that he helped put in the national spotlight with disputed claims about Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment complexes.

At his rally Friday, Trump promised to launch an “Operation Aurora” if he is re-elected “to expedite the removals of these savage gangs.” Trump said he would invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country that the U.S. is at war with, “to target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil.”

Here's what else we’re watching as we wait to find out who the Yankees and Mets will be playing next.

Biden Calls on Congress to ‘Step Up’ With Hurricane Aid

President Biden and other administration officials warned Friday that Congress will soon need to provide more funding to aid the response to hurricanes Helene and Milton.

“We’re going to be going to the Congress,” Biden said. “We’re going to need a lot of help, going to need a lot more money as we identify specifically how much is needed.”

Biden said that he has not spoken to House Speaker Mike Johnson but has spoken with other Republicans, indicating that they may press the GOP leader. “I think Speaker Johnson is going to get the message that he’s got to step up, particularly for small businesses.

The Small Business Administration oversees a disaster loan program and the agency’s leader, Isabel Casillas Guzman, said Friday that funding would run out in “a matter of days.”

“We have been advising for months that the SBA needed to replenish its disaster program so that we could continue to carry through hurricane season, and of course, with the devastation of Helene across those six states and now Milton, SBA’s resources are going to be tapped to be able to help these communities rebuild,” she told CNN.

FEMA disaster fund dwindling quickly: Biden and others have emphasized that the Federal Emergency Management Agency has the funding it needs to respond to the two hurricanes that hit the Southeast. As part of the spending bill it passed late last month, Congress provided just over $20 billion in disaster relief funding for the fiscal year that began on October 1 and runs through next September. FEMA quickly spent half of that money.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said Friday that the agency has spent $10 billion of the $20 billion in just a matter of days, in part because it restarted some $8 billion in recovery projects it had temporarily halted in August to ensure it would have enough funding for life-threatening emergencies.

She told reporters Friday that she is continually tracking her budget to make sure that she has enough funding in case of another disaster. “We need to watch this very closely. Hurricane season is not over,” she said. “And so every day we’re having a conversation about how much is being drawn down from the Disaster Relief Fund.”

For a third straight day, Biden repeated his criticism of the misinformation and “malarkey” about the federal response to the storms. “Again, let me say that the misinformation out there is not only just disgusting, but it’s dangerous and it’s misleading,” he said, adding that “the truth is we’re providing all the resources that are needed.”

Biden said he believes that the truth is breaking through to people as he and Republican officials call for an end to the misinformation. “I think those who have been spreading these lies to try to undermine the opposition are going to pay a price for it,” he said.

Asked if he thinks Donald Trump is singularly to blame for the lies, Biden said: “No, he’s not singularly — but he’s just the biggest mouth.”

Harris Tax Credits Would Benefit Low and Middle-Income Households Most

Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed to boost tax credits for families with children, low-income workers and first-time homebuyers, and according to a new analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, the benefits of those changes in the tax code would flow mostly to low and middle-income households.

TPC modeled three of Harris’s major proposals, which would cost about $2 trillion over a decade: an increase of the Child Tax Credit to as much as $6,000 per child, an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit to include childless workers, and a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The analysis found that about 70% of households earning $113,000 or less per year — the bottom half of all households — would benefit to some degree from the tax credits, with an average tax savings of about $750 per household.

The biggest winners would be households earning $33,000 or less, or the bottom 20% of all households. That group would see a 3.6% increase in household income on average, or about $700 in 2025.

At the upper end, the top 1% of households would get no benefit, while the top 20% would see an 0.1% increase in income, or about $350.

Number of the Day: 1.8%

In another positive sign in the battle against inflation, the Producer Price Index registered an increase of just 1.8% for the 12-month period ending in September, according to data from the Labor Department released Friday. The annual results were above expectations of 1.6%, but a revision of the previous month’s numbers means the PPI inflation rate declined from August (1.9%) to September. On a monthly basis, the PPI, which measures changes in wholesale prices, was flat, as falling goods prices offset a slight increase in services prices.

In a research note Friday, RSM economist Tuan Nguyen said the PPI numbers imply that the personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve sees as the most reliable measure of inflation, grew at a rate of 0.2% in September. “That would bring the year-over-year PCE inflation for all items to 2.1%, the lowest since February 2021,” Nguyen said, adding that those results would confirm “that a soft landing has been achieved.”

Chart of the Day: A Growing Reliance on Government Income

Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen of Axios argue today that a dramatic rise in Americans’ reliance on government income over the past 25 years helps explain the Trumpification of the Republican Party. They point to a recent study that found that as the American population has aged and many areas suffered economic strains, 53% of U.S. counties drew more than a quarter of their income from the government as of 2022, up from 10% of counties in 2000 and fewer than 1% as of 1970.

That study was published by the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan think tank, and highlighted recently by The Wall Street Journal, which noted that the counties that rely heavily on government assistance are home to nearly 22% of the U.S. population.

“EIG used a government definition of income that includes spending on programs that Americans pay into, such as Medicare and Social Security. Another major government health program—Medicaid—is also counted,” the Journal explained. “The analysis also includes unemployment insurance, food stamps, the earned income tax credit, veterans benefits, Pell grants, Covid-era payments and other income support. States help pay for some of these programs, such as Medicaid, but the federal government covers roughly 70% of the total cost.”

VandeHei and Allen say that trend explains the remaking of the Republican Party under Trump. “Republicans spent decades railing against welfare recipients. Now, they're deeply reliant on them to win elections,” they write, equating programs like Social Security with welfare. “This helps explain the massive surge in government spending under Trump, his continued opposition to trade agreements, his scorn for GOP ideas to gut Social Security and Medicare, and his us-vs.-them rhetoric.”

Fiscal News Roundup

• Biden Warns Hurricane-Relief Funding Needed Soon as He Calls on Congress to ‘Step Up’ – CNN
• SBA Will Exhaust Disaster Relief Funds by Next Week, Chief Says – Washington Post
• Helene, Milton Wreckage Puts Spotlight on Disaster Loan Program – Roll Call
• On Drug Prices, Harris Pushes for Deeper Cuts While Trump Offers Few Specifics – New York Times
• Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis. Most Economists Disagree – New York Times
• Obama Sends Stark Warning Message to Democrats – The Hill
• JPMorgan Calls It: The U.S. Economy Has Made a Soft Landing – Wall Street Journal
• The Ex-Soros Executive Who Is Trump’s New Obsession – Wall Street Journal
• Vance, Given 5 Chances to Say Trump Lost in 2020, Takes None – New York Times
• Most Voters Say Harris Will Concede – and Trump Won’t – If Defeated in the Election –Pew Research Center
• The Life-or-Death Consequences of Killing Congestion Pricing – New York Times

Views and Analysis

• Eight Years Ago, Trump Vowed to ‘Drain the Swamp.’ Now He Swims in It – Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey, Washington Post
• ‘Everything Is Politicized’: Chris Christie on Trump, Harris and Hurricane Lies – Frank Bruni, New York Times
• Trump Has a Sweet Deal for American Tax Dodgers Overseas – Timothy Noah, New Republic
• Help vs. Lies: Hurricane Relief Is a Microcosm of the Election Stakes – Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post
• Understanding Disaster Appropriations: Funding and More – Erin J. Greten, Law.com
• AI Is Threatening the Social Safety Net – Ami Fields-Meyer and Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, American Prospect
• Social Security: Why It Matters for Young People, Not Just Retirees – Mark Miller, New York Times
• Behind the Curtain: The Republican Welfare State – Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Axios
• Why ‘Call Her Daddy’ Got More Time With Kamala Harris Than CNN – Erik Wemple, Washington Post