Trump Squeezes House Republicans on His Big, Beautiful Bill

Good evening! Who's staying up tonight to catch the scheduled 1 a.m. meeting of the House Rules Committee on the Republican budget reconciliation bill? Here's the latest.

Trump Pressures House Republicans to Fall in Line on His Big, Beautiful Bill

President Donald Trump visited Capitol Hill on Tuesday to try to convince divided and quarrelsome Republicans to rally behind the massive and costly budget bill that party leaders hope to pass by the end of the week. Trump reportedly urged both moderates and conservatives to ease off their demands and made clear that he's growing tired of the holdouts who are threatening to derail the package, titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Trump called the meeting "just a pep talk," but he reportedly also made eminently clear to House Republicans that he's willing to use his bully pulpit against anyone blocking passage.

Some holdouts left the meeting insisting that they were still not sold. Hours later, as negotiations continued and the two factions of lawmakers expressing reservations seemed to soften their opposition, House Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly expressed confidence that the bill was on track to pass before Friday. "We're still finalizing things, but it's not going to be a heavy lift," Johnson said.

Strong words on Medicaid: Trump reportedly delivered a blunt warning to conservatives pressing for deeper cuts to Medicaid. "Don't f--- around with Medicaid," Trump said, according to reports.

He later told reporters he only wants to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse in the program. In the GOP plan, that means removing undocumented immigrants from the rolls, introducing new work requirements and stiffening eligibility checks. The latest Congressional Budget Office estimates, released Tuesday, project that the Medicaid changes in the House Republican budget would leave 7.6 million people uninsured, while changes to the Affordable Care Act could leave a few million more without coverage (see more below).

Still stuck on SALT: The president also urged blue-state Republicans not to let their desire for a larger deduction for state and local taxes to upend the bill. Trump had pledged to expand the SALT deduction while campaigning last year, but on Tuesday he said the move would mainly benefit Democratic governors in New York, Illinois and California.

A group of Republicans from New York were not moved, publicly calling for further negotiations to deliver what they described as tax relief for their middle-class constituents. (The SALT deduction primarily benefits higher earners.) "Our states are donor states, consistently subsidizing so-called fiscally responsible red states," they argued in a statement, referring to the net financial flows to and from the federal government from taxes and federal programs.

Negotiations on the SALT deduction reportedly continued throughout the day - and may have yielded some progress. Yet with the House Rules Committee set to start debate on the legislation at 1 a.m. this morning, Trump's visit failed to immediately beat down any or all resistance to key elements of the plan from both moderates and conservatives. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose just three votes if they are to muscle their plan through this week.

The bottom line: Republicans still have some work to do before they can rest assured that their bill will pass the House, as deficit hawks and the SALT Caucus continue talks with GOP leaders. The coming hours will be critical.

GOP's Big Bill Would Reduce Health Coverage by More Than 10 Million: CBO

An updated Congressional Budget Office analysis of Republicans' reconciliation bill finds that the number of people without health insurance would increase by about 10 million people by 2034 because of the legislation.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act - the bill's formal name - would result in 7.6 million fewer people receiving care through Medicaid in 2034 relative to the baseline, CBO said. Another 3.1 million would be uninsured through changes made to the federal health care exchanges operated under the Affordable Care Act.

The reduction in coverage in the Medicaid program would result from changes in the law written by the Energy and Commerce Committee, while the losses in ACA coverage would be produced by changes written by both the Energy and Commerce and the Ways and Means Committees. As KFF's Larry Levitt notes, the total of all projected coverage losses is a bit unclear, since CBO has not reviewed the interaction between reductions driven by the two committees among those who would otherwise be covered under the ACA.

The loss in coverage includes an estimated 1.4 million people who would be unable to document their citizenship status or satisfactory immigration status, CBO said.

With respect to savings, the Energy and Commerce Committee is estimated to reduce spending by about $900 billion between 2025 and 2024 relative to the baseline, with much of the savings resulting from changes in the Medicaid program. New work requirements in Medicaid are projected to save about $280 billion, though that estimate will likely increase if Republicans make those requirements take effect in 2027 rather than 2029, as expected.

CBO has yet to deliver an overall cost estimate for the GOP plan.

Trump Announces Plan for 'Golden Dome' Defense System

President Trump announced Tuesday that his administration has officially selected an overall design for the "Golden Dome" missile defense system he hopes will be deployed during his time in office. Republicans have included $25 billion in initial funding for the program in the massive reconciliation package currently making its way through the House.

Flanked by lawmakers and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump said the funding will fulfill a campaign pledge to build a cutting-edge defense shield to protect the U.S. from the threat of foreign missile attack. The new system will deploy "next-generation technologies across the land, sea and space," and potentially include Canada within its defensive umbrella.

Trump said the program, which will be led by Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein, will cost an estimated $175 billion and take two and half to three years to complete.

Analysts have projected much higher costs for the project, upwards of $500 billion, and have warned of huge technological challenges. Asked about those higher estimates, Trump indicated that he isn't worried about the cost. "We can afford to do it," he said. "You know, we took in $5.1 trillion in the last four days in the Middle East," Trump added, referring to long-term investments in the U.S. economy he says were promised by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates during his recent diplomatic trip to the Persian Gulf.

Fiscal News Roundup

• Trump on Capitol Hill Implores Divided Republicans to Unify Behind His Big Tax Cuts Bill – Associated Press
• 'Don't F--K Around With Medicaid': Trump Moves to Steamroll Megabill Opposition – Politico
• Trump Tries to Persuade, and Threaten, GOP to Support His Budget Bill – Washington Post
• Johnson Says House on Track for Trump Budget Vote Within Two Days – The Hill
• Senators Are Unmoved by Johnson's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' Pitch – Politico
• Johnson Privately Cautions Senate GOP on Trump's Budget Bill – Axios
• Hawley: House GOP Must Listen to Trump on Medicaid – The Hill
• Debt Cloud Suddenly Hangs Over Megabill Talks – Politico
• Senate Unanimously Approves Bill to Eliminate Tax on Tips – The Hill
• Trump's Pick to Lead I.R.S. Promoted a Nonexistent Tax Credit – New York Times
• Democratic Senator Says He Has Recordings of Favors 'Promised' by Trump's IRS Pick – The Hill
• Trump Tax Cuts Would Add $3.8 Trillion to Debt: CBO – The Hill
• Investors Are Jittery as G.O.P. Bill Threatens to Swell Deficit – New York Times
• FDA to Limit Future Covid-19 Shots to Older People and Those at Risk of Serious Infection – CNN
• Elon Musk Says He Will Cut Back on Political Spending After Heavily Backing Trump in 2024 – Associated Press

Views and Analysis

• Behold the New Tax Plan: More Complicated, Less Fair, Totally Unaffordable – Jason Furman, New York Times
• Trump's Tax Cut Faces a New Snag: America's Debt Crisis Is Back in the Spotlight – Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN
• 5 Things to Know About SALT, the Tax Break Holding Up Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' – Tobias Burns, The Hill
• The Spotlight Is on Medicaid Cuts, but the ACA Marketplaces Could See a One-Third Cut in Enrollment – Drew Altman, KFF
• Republicans Tweak the Social Contract to Ask More of States – Zachary B. Wolf, CNN
• Why Moody's Picked Now to Downgrade the United States – Heather Long, Washington Post
• Markets Snap Back, but Moody's Was Onto Something – John Authers, Bloomberg
• JD Vance's Surprise Admission About Trump, Medicaid Boomerangs on Him – Greg Sargent, New Republic
• How Will the 2025 Reconciliation Bill Affect the Uninsured Rate in Each State? – Alice Burns et al., KFF
• The Real Cost of Trump's Cheap Drug Promise – Eduardo Porter, Washington Post
• The President Will Destroy You Now – Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times