Senate Republicans Unveil Trickiest Parts of Their Big Tax Bill

Happy Monday! On this date 10 years ago, Donald Trump famously descended the golden escalator at his eponymous tower in New York to announce he was running for president, launching a political rise - and a major reshaping of American politics - that few if any foresaw.

Today, Trump met with other G7 leaders in Alberta, Canada, and his sons announced a new mobile phone service. The president on Friday filed a 234-page financial disclosure form reporting more than $600 million in income from cryptocurrency, golf clubs, licensing royalties and other businesses. Trump also reported assets worth at least $1.6 billion.

Here's what else we're watching.

Senate Republicans Unveil Trickiest Parts of Their Big Tax Bill

The Senate Finance Committee late Monday afternoon released the long-awaited text for its portion of the Republican budget reconciliation bill, including key changes to thorny elements of the House version of the legislation that could upset the delicate balance GOP leaders need to pass the package.

The 549-page bill calls for:

• Steeper Medicaid cuts than in the House plan. "Republican senators are proposing deeper cuts to Medicaid spending by lowering the provider tax that certain states are allowed to assess," Axios reports. "For states that have adopted Medicaid expansion, it gradually lowers the provider tax from 6% to 3.5% in 2031."

  The legislation still would impose work requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries starting at age 19, but the Senate reportedly would also apply those requirements to adults with dependent children older than 14, unlike the House bill, which would exempt all adults with dependent children.

• Making various business tax provisions permanent. That includes full expensing for domestic research and development as well as new capital investments in equipment.
   
• A $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Blue-state moderates in the House had insisted on an increase to the $10,000 limit set by the GOP's 2017 tax law, and they won a boost to $40,000 after weeks of negotiations. The Senate bill undoes that, restoring the $10,000 number, reportedly as a placeholder pending further negotiations - a move that some moderate House Republicans said could threaten the entire package. The House SALT Caucus includes enough members to derail the plan. "If the Senate reduces the SALT number, I will vote NO, and the bill will fail in the House," New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler warned.
   
• Tweaks to the phaseout of clean energy tax credits. The Senate plan reportedly would allow more projects to take advantage of the tax credits, which were introduced as part of the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, before they are eliminated. That could create problems with House hardliners who pushed to roll back the credits faster.
   
• A smaller increase in the Child Tax Credit. The credit would be raised from $2,000 to $2,200, less than the $2,500 in the House plan.
   
• A larger debt-limit increase. The Senate bill would increase the debt limit by $5 trillion, or $1 trillion more than the House-passed plan.

What's next: This is a short week for the Senate because of the Juneteenth holiday, but Republicans are still racing to get their full package to President Trump's desk by July 4, meaning the coming days will be key as GOP leaders work to whip the votes they need. Now that this final portion of the Senate package is out, Republicans will also have to make sure their plans comply with the Senate's "Byrd Rule" governing what can and cannot be included in a reconciliation bill.

'I'm a Tariff Person': Trump Attends G7 Amid Trade Tensions

Attending the Group of Seven meeting Monday in Alberta, Canada, President Trump faced questions about the lack of progress in his effort to reach new trade agreements with much of the world, including the host nation.

Asked what is holding up the agreement with Canada as he stood with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said the leaders had different "concepts" about tariffs and trade. "I have a tariff concept, Mark has a different concept," he said, indicating that he hopes the two could resolve their disagreements today.

"I've always been a tariff person," Trump explained. "It's simple, it's easy, it's precise, and it just goes very quickly." The Canadian leader's idea is "more complex," he added," but also very good."

Trump said more broadly that new trade deals should be coming along soon, while making it clear that his idea of a deal may be more like a command. "Look, we have our trade deals. All we have to do is send a letter: 'This is what you're going to have to pay,'" he said. "But I think we'll have a few, few new trade deals."

**Trillion-dollar price tag:**Trump arrived at the G7 meeting soon after the release of ananalysisfrom Bloomberg Economics indicating that the president's new tariff regime, combined with the effects of his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017, will cost the world economy upwards of $1 trillion by 2030.

The TPP was a trade agreement negotiated by the Obama administration that was intended to bind the 12 Pacific-rim signatories into a free trade zone that could counter China. Trump's rejection of the agreement was the first concrete sign of his plan to move away from free trade and toward greater protectionism for the U.S. economy.

More than a third of the economic loss would fall on the U.S. as the nation's share of international trade shrinks, even as China's remains steady, the analysis concluded. Reduced growth would mean 690,000 fewer American jobs by 2030, relative to the baseline in which TPP was enacted and Trump's high tariffs were not in place.

Global trade has already been slowed by Trump's tariffs. Both the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have slashed their economic growth projections for the year, with the OECD estimating that the U.S. would grow by just 1.6% in 2025, a sharp drop from the 2.8% growth rate recorded in 2024. The group blamed tariffs for much of the change.

Missing Putin: Trump lamented the removal of Russia from the economic forum. "The G7 used to be the G8," Trump told reporters following a bilateral meeting with Carney. "Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in."

Leaders of the Group of 7 nations - Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States - expelled Russia in 2014 following its military invasion of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula; the Canadian prime minister at the time was actually Stephen Harper, not Justin Trudeau.

Trump said Monday that the full-blown war between Ukraine and Russia that began in 2022 would never have happened if Russia had been kept in the group, adding that it wouldn't have happened if he had been president that year either.

"Putin speaks to me, he doesn't speak to anybody else because he was insulted when he got thrown out of the G8," Trump said.

Free Office Snacks Might Fall Victim to Tax Law: Report

As Republicans work to finalize their tax law, one tax break scheduled to sunset in 2026 remains on the chopping block - and it could threaten your free office meals and snacks, The Washington Post's Julie Zauzmer Weil reports. "Starting in 2026, companies will no longer be able to deduct the cost of on-site cafeterias or takeout for workers who stay late," she writes. "And accountants say the change probably applies to office snacks and coffee, too."

Zauzmer Weil explains that the looming expiration of that tax law could mean another $300 million a year in taxes for businesses, according to estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation. Yet even as Republicans look to cut taxes, conservatives might have reason to let that tax break end as scheduled. Tax Foundation analyst Alex Muresianu tells the Post that an employer-provided lunch is essentially an edible form of tax-free income. "We want to tax all employee compensation the same," he said. "And instead of wages, having employer-provided meals in various contexts is a form of nonwage compensation."

On the other hand, the Republican tax-and-spending bill would eliminate taxes on some other forms of income, including tips and overtime wages.

Some experts tell the Post that any cost-cutting move by employers to eliminate office food or snacks could undercut ongoing efforts to lure workers back to the office after the Covid pandemic.

Fiscal News Roundup

• Senate Republicans Release Revised Tax Cuts and Debt Limit Bill – Bloomberg
• Senate Unveils Trickiest Text of Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" – Axios
• SALT Caucus Republicans Seethe at $10K Cap in Senate’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ – The Hill
• Trump Economist Outlines Case for Business Tax Cuts, as GOP Weighs Bill – Washington Post
• As Trump Returns to G7, Rift With Allies Is Even Deeper – New York Times
• Trump Hints at No More US Sanctions on Russia at G7 Summit – Politico
• Business Lobbyists Scramble to Kill $100 Billion ‘Revenge Tax’ – New York Times
• Trump Fires Democratic Commissioner of Independent Agency That Oversees Nuclear Safety – Associated Press
• Trump’s Trade and Tax Policies Start to Stall U.S. Battery Boom – New York Times
• U.S. Could Lose More Immigrants Than It Gains for First Time in 50 Years – Washington Post
• Judge Orders Many NIH Grants Restored, Calling Cancellation Unlawful – The Hill
• $75 Billion Firm Wins Carve-Out in Tax Bill After Lobbying Push – Washington Post
• Tax Law Might Be Coming for Your Free Office Snacks – Washington Post

Views and Analysis

• The Worst Thing Trump Is Doing to the Economy Isn’t Tariffs – Gene Sperling, Washington Post
• Yes, They’re Going After Medicare Too – Jonathan Cohn, The Bulwark
• GOP Tax Bill Could Hurt the Poorest Households More Than It Helps Them – Theodoric Meyer and Jacob Bogage, Washington Post
• Our Bridges Are Old, Our Grid Is on the Fritz, and Soon America Will Be Obsolete – Jigar Shah and Raj Pannu, New York Times
• Surprise: The “Big, Beautiful Bill” Takes From the Poor and Gives to ICE – Bess Levin, Vanity Fair
• Trump’s Reverse Robin Hood Agenda Hits Home Stretch – David Dayen, American Prospect
• Trump’s Zeal for Factory Work Risks Damage to Growing Segments of Economy – David J. Lynch, Washington Post
• This Tax Testifies to the Utter Corruption of Conservative Thought – Matt Bai, Washington Post
• The Bureaucrat and the Billionaire: Inside DOGE’s Chaotic Takeover of Social Security – Alexandra Berzon, Nicholas Nehamas and Tara Siegel Bernard, New York Times
• Tim Scott’s Video Attacking CBO: Nine Errors in 60 Seconds – Glenn Kessler, Washington Post
• ‘The Age of Trump’ Enters Its Second Decade – Peter Baker, New York Times