How much do presidential debates impact voter choice?
Minimally, usually. In fact, in essentially every election since we’ve started polling, the candidate who was in the lead going into the debates was in the lead coming out of the debates.
Romney’s polling improved dramatically after the first debate – so there are exceptions.
Yes, in the first 2012 debate, one candidate so clearly outperformed the other that it made some voters take notice. But I’m still not sold on [the first debate being] a game changer.
How much does style matter over substance?
Style matters a good bit, largely because the substance is so low [in debates]. Voters tend to discount or simply not believe many of the policy-related comments the candidates make.
Does the town hall favor one candidate or the other?
Not necessarily. It might be thought to favor Obama; he’s in his element when he talks directly to voters about their concerns. But he can’t seem or sound too aggressive.
Conveying a sense of urgency to voters: Isn’t this a priority?
There’s some need for this. Obama has to convince us things are on the right track. Romney, by contrast, has to argue the Obama economy has been a failure.