There are many things that are unclear about the just-announced presidential candidacy of Republican former CIA operative and investment banker Evan McMullin. Is this for real? Who talked him into it? Is there much point in mounting an independent bid for the presidency after the deadline for filing to be on the ballot in half the states in the union has already passed?
One thing is pretty certain, though: In November, an unknown 40-year-old who was until recently employed in the rather obscure position of policy director for the House Republican Conference is not going to be measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.
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So what’s going on here? So far, it’s hard to be sure. Anti-Trump Republicans have been searching for months for an alternative candidate -- someone who could give Republican voters who dislike Trump a reason to come to the polls in November and support down-ballot candidates instead of staying home and yelling at the television.
One by one, different names have been floated, like conservative writer David French and retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, briefly elevating the hopes of the #NeverTrump movement, only to step aside.
None, though, appear to have gone to the lengths that McMullin and his supporters have. The candidate has a fairly polished website and apparently a campaign committee called McMullin for President (there is currently no record of the committee in the Federal Elections Commission’s database).
To be clear, it doesn’t take much to set up a nominal run for the presidency. A quick search of the Federal Elections Commission’s website finds dozens of campaign committees that have registered over the past few months on behalf of candidates ranging from Abozaid Abdulraqueeb to Todd Zornow, with all sorts of others in between.
But McMullin, a graduate of Brigham Young University who also holds an MBA from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania (the same school from which Trump received his undergraduate degree) feels a little more committed to the effort than his predecessors.
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His website includes a “Letter to America” excoriating both of the major party candidates running in this election.
“Hillary Clinton is a corrupt career politician who has recklessly handled classified information in an attempt to avoid accountability and put American lives at risk including those of my former colleagues,” McMullin writes. “She fails the basic tests of judgment and ethics any candidate for President must meet.”
Trump, however, doesn’t come off any better. “Given his obvious personal instability, putting him in command of our military and nuclear arsenal would be deeply irresponsible. His infatuation with strongmen and demagogues like Vladimir Putin is anathema to American values. We cannot and must not elect him.”
Of course, even if he dislikes both of them, in the end, McMullin’s entry into the race is only likely to benefit one of the major party candidates on the ballot. That’s Hillary Clinton. While it’s conceivable that he might draw the votes of a small number of national security-minded Democrats angry at Clinton’s use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, it’s pretty clear that the vast majority of unmoored voters looking for a safe harbor in November are Republicans appalled by Trump.
So, what’s McMullin’s game here? Nobody seems too sure.
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Right now, there’s speculation that his candidacy is aimed specifically at denying Trump a victory in Utah. McMullin, a Mormon, was born in Provo and returned to the state for college. The Mormon vote is usually decisive in Utah, and while they tend to break toward the GOP, members of the Church of Latter Day Saints are notably uncomfortable with Trump. Giving Mormon voters a conservative alternative to Trump might siphon off enough votes to hand the race in the state to Clinton.
However, if the whole idea behind a McMullin candidacy is to prevent Trump from collecting Utah’s six electoral votes -- just over one percent of the 538 available in November -- it seems like a rather elaborate effort given the remote likelihood that the state’s vote will be decisive.
That said, given the terms in which many in the GOP foreign policy establishment are describing the possible effects of a Trump presidency, perhaps even a remote chance at preventing it feels worth the effort to the people backing McMullin.
On Monday, for example, a group of 50 national security experts associated with past Republican presidential administrations released a joint letter saying they would not vote for Trump and denouncing his candidacy in the strongest terms.
“From a foreign policy perspective, Donald Trump is not qualified to be President and Commander-in-Chief. Indeed, we are convinced that he would be a dangerous president and would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.”
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They continued, “Mr. Trump lacks the character, values, and experience to be President. He weakens U.S. moral authority as the leader of the free world. He appears to lack basic knowledge about and belief in the U.S. Constitution, U.S. laws, and U.S. institutions, including religious tolerance, freedom of the press, and an independent judiciary.”
“Unlike previous Presidents who had limited experience in foreign affairs, Mr. Trump has shown no interest in educating himself. He continues to display an alarming ignorance of basic facts of contemporary international politics.”
If it’s really that bad, maybe the effort to prevent Trump from taking Utah is -- just in case -- worth the effort for #NeverTrump Republicans.
