If all politics is theater, then a nationally televised presidential debate is like Broadway show. This cycle may be the first season in which the play will open as a matinee.
The nation will get its first formal glimpse of the Republican field today in a two-part debate hosted by Fox News. Thanks to the enthusiasm within the GOP to succeed the current President, Barack Obama, 17 candidates of sufficient profile qualified to take part in the festivities.
That created another problem for Fox and the Republican National Committee, which spent a considerable amount of effort after 2012 gaining more control over the debate process in order to minimize the internecine damage a proliferation of debates could cause. Ironically, Fox and the RNC had to create two debates out of one in order to allow for more than just introductory and closing remarks from each candidate in one two-hour event.
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In other words, the first debate will unfold over six hours, with a two-hour intermission between Act I and Act II. That may be asking a bit much from even the most enthusiastic political junkies. Normally, primary voters do not begin to truly engage until after Labor Day. Even Congress takes August off each year, reducing the amount of interest in national politics.
Still, the debate will matter, perhaps more than it should, to the media in particular. The competitive narratives have been forming over the last few months, and we finally get a chance to see all of the GOP’s candidates in one place at one time to see whether they take hold.
Well, in two places at two times. Close enough for government work.
Even with four hours, though, there will not be enough time for the candidates to differentiate themselves in substantive ways. The matinee has a cast of seven competing for at most 100 minutes of airtime, after commercials, and the prime-time event will have ten candidates vying for about the same amount of attention. The format will leave almost no room for an intelligent discussion of policy, of values, or even of strategy, a failing of multi-candidate debates that goes back much farther than the last few cycles.
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In this environment, what should discerning voters look for to determine the winners and losers in time for the inevitable media pronouncements? The first principle to keep in mind is this: don’t look for winners and losers. This is just the start of the process, and there will be few opportunities for knockout punches at this stage.
This may be the only real virtue of the two-tier system in this debate. Most of those who might be expected to act as if they have nothing to lose, and who therefore might swing for the fences against the polling leaders, will be grouped into the same matinee; their targets will all be in the other half of the debate. The candidates in the primetime debate have some standing to protect and will likely expect to stick around for at least the next few debates. There will not be a lot of upside in either debate for going dramatically negative and nasty, especially when those who tune in may be getting their first real look at the participants as presidential candidates.
The first debate has the best opportunity for substance and positive engagement. The candidates in this tier include four past-or-present governors (Perry, Jindal, Pataki, Gilmore), two Senators (Graham, Santorum), and a former CEO (Fiorina), none of whom need to take potshots at their debate partners. Their shots will mostly be aimed at Donald Trump and Jeb Bush, but each will need to focus mainly on raising their own profile. Look for Carly Fiorina to find a way to stand out, and expect a question to Perry about his debate flubs from 2012, but don’t expect much from this opening act to make the news.
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The prime-time debate promises more potential for fireworks. Trump will stand at the center as the polling leader, and the others on stage will have to measure themselves for voters with Trump as a reference. Will Bush or Scott Walker risk angering Trump supporters this early by attacking him directly? Both have been targets of Trump lately, but they want to woo the base rather than alienate them. Trump may well prove to be a passing infatuation, but a frontal attack now may still leave voters with a bad taste in their mouths later. Marco Rubio’s style doesn’t fit with that kind of attack and Ted Cruz has publicly sworn off Trump attacks. However, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and John Kasich have pugnacious personalities and a need to get some attention in the race, and Trump would be a perfect foil for that purpose.
Even if there are no direct attacks on each other, the narrow time slices in this format should play to Trump’s strength now and to Rubio’s as well. Walker has done better than expected on the stump with his folksy charm, but Rubio can spin a tapestry of the American dream in a tight timeframe. Trump can respond in very general terms to policy questions in a similar manner to his television interviews of late, pushing off until later questions about the depth of his policy understanding and his true political orientation.
Still, Trump is most at risk in this format, not so much because of the other candidates but because of himself. He does not have the experience in sharing a political debate stage that his competitors do, and errors at this level can occasionally be fatal to campaigns – as Rick Perry can attest. The other candidates in the prime-time finale might steer clear of Trump in order to give him enough rope to hang himself rather than confront him at this first event. If Trump survives, they can take him on later if necessary.
In other words, viewers should expect not to expect much from tonight’s marathon debate session – except, perhaps, exhaustion. It will be a long night, but it’s just the beginning of a long, long primary cycle. This is one Broadway show where no one knows who has a run of the play contract.
