Can Trump Close the Deal on His ‘Big Beautiful Bill’?

Trump floated a lower tariff rate on China.

House Republicans cleared a big hurdle Sunday night as they work to pass their massive 1,116-page package of tax cuts and other GOP priorities. The House Budget Committee, which had failed to advance the bill on Friday, managed to do so by the slimmest of margins, 17-16, as four conservatives voted “present” to allow the measure to move ahead. But with the fate of the bill still uncertain, President Donald Trump will try to rally support on Capitol Hill Tuesday for what would be a legacy-defining piece of legislation.

Conservatives still unsatisfied: Conservatives made clear that a weekend of additional negotiations had not yet resolved their concerns about the legislation. 

“While progress has been made on advancing the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ out of the Budget Committee, it does not yet meet the moment,” the House Freedom Caucus said in a statement Sunday night. “As written, the bill continues increased deficits in the near term with possible savings years down the road that may never materialize. Thanks to discussions over the weekend, the bill will be closer to the budget resolution framework we agreed upon in the House in April, but it fails to actually honor our promise to significantly correct the spending trajectory of the federal government and lead our nation towards a balanced budget.”

Hardliners are calling for Medicaid work requirements to take effect sooner and for clean energy tax credits to be eliminated faster. They are reportedly also calling for additional Medicaid changes that could lead to benefit cuts, even as more centrist Republicans oppose such moves and worry about their political ramifications. 

Meanwhile, Republicans from blue states including New York and California are still pushing for a higher cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes. The current $10,000 cap was set as part of the GOP’s 2017 tax law, and a small group of Republicans has rejected an increase to $30,000 as insufficient.

Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged that negotiators still have to iron out key details. “We’re almost there, and I’m very optimistic that we will find the right equilibrium point to get this bill delivered,” Johnson told reporters Monday.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told CNBC on Monday that the Medicaid work requirements in the bill would take effect in early 2027 instead of 2029. That and other changes to the bill will be included in an amendment that Republicans hope to pass through the Rules Committee, which will begin consideration of the legislation at 1 a.m. — yes, 1 o’clock in the morning — on Wednesday. Republican leaders still hope to hold a vote on the full House floor by the end of the week.

What’s next: Trump is expected to join a meeting of the House Republican Conference on Tuesday morning and House GOP leaders reportedly want him to press hardliners to ease off their demands and support the bill. Trump reportedly may also look to whip support for the plan via social media.

The bottom line: Republicans remain divided, leaving the outlook for the megabill clouded — especially because Senate lawmakers will likely also want changes and are reportedly already reviving talk of dividing the bill into two or three pieces and passing the easiest portions first.