Republicans won their battle to pass the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Now they’re turning to the battle to define the law for voters. House Speaker Mike Johnson told NBC News on Tuesday that he has “no concerns at all” that the megabill might hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
“This is a bill that was written for hardworking Americans, middle- and lower-class Americans in particular, and they will feel the effects of that in the economy and they’ll have higher wages and more opportunity and more economic growth, and that’s a major factor in a midterm election,” Johnson said before listing other elements of the bill and predicting voters will reward Republicans.
“In fact, it’s going to gain seats for us,” Johnson said. “We’re that confident.”
A messaging challenge: A Congressional Budget Office analysis last month found that a version of the bill would benefit top-earning households and hurt low-income ones. The nonpartisan agency estimated that Americans in the bottom 10% of earners would lose an average of $1,600 in resources annually, representing a 3.9% drop in income.
Another analysis by the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation of the major tax provision in the bill found that the new law prevents a tax hike that would have affected most households and that middle-income households would see the biggest gains in after-tax income next year — but also said that, by 2034, top earners would be the biggest beneficiaries, while the bottom fifth of earners would gain the least, or would see incomes fall, under conventional modeling.
Those analyses and others like them, combined with the widespread healthcare coverage losses projected because of the new law and poor polling numbers for the legislation so far, suggest Republicans have a long way to go to turn perceptions of the package in their favor.
Democrats are already gearing up their own political messaging efforts in hopes of ousting Republican lawmakers who got the legislation to Trump’s desk — in large part by highlighting criticisms of the bill that Republicans offered before voting for it. Democrats can look back to their 2018 campaign playbook, in which they slammed Trump’s original tax cuts as disproportionately benefitting the wealthy, and used those attacks to win back control of the House. And the reportedly already have research demonstrating the effectiveness of messaging about the GOP combination of Medicaid cuts and tax cuts helping the rich and corporations.
“This is a rare policy gift to Democrats in that it was perpetrated by Republicans, harms almost everybody, and it’s actually relatively easy to talk about,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer told The Hill.
The GOP plan: NBC News’s Sahil Kapur, Melanie Zanona and Julie Tsirkin report that Republicans say they have an aggressive strategy to tout their new law and defend against Democratic attacks: “Republicans say they will campaign on individual pieces of the bill that poll well and ignore the provisions that are less popular. GOP leaders and strategists are encouraging their candidates to lean into the ‘wins’ of Trump’s agenda: tax cuts on overtime and tips, child care subsidies and work requirements for able-bodied adults.”
Republicans reportedly also expect workers to start seeing the benefits of Trump’s tax cuts on tips and overtime pay ahead of the midterms — and won’t see the effect of $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts, which were delayed until after the 2026 election. And the NBC report adds that the National Republican Congressional Committee plans to go on the offensive, urging Republican lawmakers to accuse Democrats of voting to “block tax cuts” and “leave the border wide open.”