The Republican megabill signed into law last month by President Trump will benefit the rich and hurt the poor, according to the latest analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
“The agency estimates that, in general, resources will decrease for households toward the bottom of the income distribution, whereas resources will increase for households in the middle and toward the top of the income distribution,” the CBO said in a letter Monday to Democratic leaders in the House and Senate, who requested the analysis.
The budget scorekeeper said that, on average, household resources will increase from 2026 through 2034 as a result of the new law and its tax cuts. But households in the bottom tenth based on income will suffer a decrease of about $1,200 a year, or 3.1%, compared with the income CBO projected in January. “Those projected decreases are mainly attributable to reductions in in-kind transfers, such as Medicaid and SNAP,” the budget office said.
The next lowest 10% of households is projected to see a reduction in resources of about $400 a year.
Meanwhile, the middle 20% of households will see gains of about $800 to $1,200 a year, or an increase of roughly 1%. And households in the top 10% of income earners — those making nearly $700,000 a year and up — are expected to benefit from the new law to the tune of about $13,600 a year, or 2.7% of their projected income. Those gains are mainly due to lower taxes.
The CBO also posted an interactive tool allowing users to dig into the details of its projections year by year.
Democrats used the report to renew their criticisms of the GOP law. “This latest analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office confirms that the deeply unpopular One Big Ugly Law is also deeply unfair. It rips food and healthcare from children, veterans and seniors hurting the most vulnerable among us in order to enact massive tax breaks for billionaire donors,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “The American people deserve better than this cruel Republican budget scam.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the new data confirms what was already evident. “The reality is Republicans knew this when they passed it,” Schumer said in a statement. “They just don’t care. They sold out American families all to line the pockets of their billionaire donors and special interests.”
In touting their bill, Republicans have largely dismissed CBO projections and argued that the budget office routinely misjudges or fails to account for the economy-boosting effects of tax cuts.