We’re now 22 days away from the deadline to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month, and while appropriators continue to work on advancing annual spending bills, congressional leaders have made little progress toward keeping agencies open into October and beyond.
Republicans are reportedly still trying to coalesce around a strategy and unite splintering factions. Some top GOP lawmakers are looking for a short-term funding extension to buy congressional negotiators more time to hammer out bipartisan spending bills. But the White House and some fiscal hawks reportedly prefer a spending stopgap that would stretch into next year: “Continually running the government on stopgaps is part of White House budget director Russ Vought’s strategy to shrink federal spending as he roots for the government funding process to be ‘less bipartisan,’” Politico reports. “Those kick-the-can funding bills give the White House more leeway to shift cash while depriving Democrats of any increases in non-defense funding and GOP defense hawks the military budget increases they seek.”
The odds of a showdown remain high. “In the end,” Politico says, “the standoff could hinge on Speaker Mike Johnson’s appetite for trying to pass a funding package backed by President Donald Trump but not Democrats, as he did in the spring — and whether Senate Democrats once again capitulate rather than see government operations grind to a halt Oct. 1.”
Democrats insist that they won’t simply accept whatever plan GOP leaders push this time, and Republicans will have to negotiate if they want to get 60 votes in the Senate. Democrats’ resolve in this case has only been hardened by the Trump administration’s push for a so-called pocket rescission of $4.9 billion in foreign aid funding. Democratic leaders have argued that there’s no point in trying to fashion a bipartisan spending deal if the White House and congressional Republicans then try to claw back funding unilaterally.
One issue Democrats and Republicans may have room to negotiate on is an extension of enhanced Obamacare tax credits. The higher credits are set to expire at the end of the year, which would lead to higher costs for enrollees and is projected to leave millions of people without marketplace plans. Republicans are wary of taking the political blame for higher healthcare premiums. But many in the party also oppose renewing the Democratic tax break. “Johnson will lose a lot of GOP support if he includes the Obamacare tax credit in any funding bill,” Punchbowl News says. “House Democrats would be needed to pass that package.”
Politico notes that House and Senate appropriators are moving toward a plan that would provide a full year of updated funding for the USDA, the Department of Veterans Affairs and congressional operations, while other agencies would get short-term extensions to keep the lights on and buy time for further talks.
But it's not completely clear that Democrats will want to play ball this time around after helping avoid a shutdown in March. Already, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein — who is influential with party elites — is encouraging Democrats to consider allowing a shutdown. In a 3,200-word piece published Sunday, and an accompanying 22-minute video, Klein argues that Democrats shouldn’t help further President Donald Trump’s agenda or his power grabs. “I’m not going to tell you I am absolutely sure Democrats should shut the government down. I’m not,” Klein wrote. “At the same time, joining Republicans to fund this government is worse than failing at opposition. It’s complicity.”
The bottom line: Time is running short, and no one knows what’s going to happen.