The last U.S. government shutdown stretched for a record 35 days from December 2018 into late January 2019, during President Donald Trump’s first term. The next U.S. government shutdown appears very likely to start Tuesday night after a White House meeting this afternoon between Trump and congressional leaders failed to yield any progress toward a deal to extend expiring federal funding.
The two sides emerged from Monday’s meeting saying that the gap between them remained large and insisting that the onus was on the other party to determine whether the government would shut down.
“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting. “I hope they change their mind, but we’re going to see.”
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said that “very large differences” remain on healthcare issues and on Trump’s efforts to exert more control over congressionally approved spending. “It’s up to the Republicans whether they want a shutdown or not,” Schumer said, adding that Trump is “the decision-maker” and can avoid a shutdown by agreeing to some Democratic demands. “Their bill has not one iota of Democratic input. That is never how we’ve done this before,” Schumer said.
The Republican side: Republicans argue that Democrats should accept a “clean” seven-week stopgap funding bill passed by the House to allow time for further negotiations on annual spending bills and other policy issues. They say Democrats are injecting extraneous and expensive policy demands into what could be a straightforward, non-partisan agreement to keep the government running. And they insist that they won’t agree to a Democratic list of demands that would add well over $1 trillion in spending in exchange for only a short-term funding deal. The cost total includes $350 billion to permanently extend higher Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire at the end of the year.
“This is purely and simply hostage-taking on behalf of the Democrats,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “As of right now it this is a hijacking of the American people, and it’s the American people that are going to pay the price.”
Vance called some Democratic demands “crazy” but added that he and Trump found other Democratic ideas reasonable and that Republicans would be willing to negotiate, just not in the context of a shutdown fight. “What’s not reasonable is to hold those ideas as leverage and the shut down the government unless we give you everything you want,” the vie president said.
The Democratic side: Democrats, eager to show they are fighting what they describe as a “lawless” administration, want to frame this showdown around healthcare costs and insist that they can’t trust promises from Trump or Republicans to engage in good-faith negotiations based on their partisan actions this year.
Schumer said that Democrats had laid out some of the healthcare issues they want to address, including the threat of steep premium increases for millions of Americans if those enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits are allowed to expire and the possibility of more rural hospitals closing due to Medicaid cuts. Schumer said that, based on how Trump looked, it seemed he was hearing about the issues for the first time. “He seemed for the first time to understand the magnitude of this crisis, and we’ll hope he’ll talk to the Republican leaders and tell them we need bipartisan input,” Schumer said.
As Democrats strategize for a shutdown, Schumer has “sounded out” his members about the possibility of a shorter-term stopgap bill that would allow the government to reopen for seven to 10 days, Axios reported.
“Progressives see this as a sign that Schumer is caving,” Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News wrote in a post on X, “but sources close to the leadership say he’s preparing for a bunch of different scenarios to get out of a shutdown & to keep pressure on GOP to negotiate on Obamacare subsidies — & to make House look bad for being on recess.” Desiderio added that the Democratic stopgap plan would come into play under the assumption that Trump agrees to negotiate on the Obamacare subsidies.
Who the public will blame: Democrats are betting that Americans will blame the party in power across Washington, D.C., and a new poll out today suggests that they might have an early edge on that front. The Morning Consult poll of 2,202 voters finds that 45% say they’d blame Republicans in Congress for a shutdown, compared with 32% who say they’d blame Democrats. By a margin of 41-24, independent voters are more likely to blame Republicans. The poll was conducted last week.
“As is nearly always the case with shutdowns, all parties will come out looking worse, at least for a brief period of time,” Cameron Easley, Morning Consult’s head of political and economic analysis, told Politico. “Republicans should also understand that there is a palpable perception among voters that their majority status in Washington renders them responsible.”
What’s next: Probably a shutdown.