The key policy issue at the heart of the shutdown battle is the looming expiration at the end of this year of enhanced tax credits for Affordable Care Act plans. Democrats want to extend those higher subsidies, first introduced in 2021, while Republicans are more divided on the issue, with some pressing to avoid a surge in premiums for millions of families while others want to introduce tighter limits to the program or eliminate the credits completely.
A new analysis by KFF, a non-partisan, nonprofit healthcare foundation, shows what’s at stake. It estimates that, if Congress extends the enhanced tax credits, subsidized enrollees would save an average of $1,016 in premium payments for 2026. The vast majority of the 24 million people enrolled in ACA plans receive subsidies.
Put differently, if the enhanced tax credits are allowed to expire, subsidized enrollees would see their annual out-of-pocket premiums soar by an average 114%, from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.
The new estimate is sharply higher than an earlier one by KFF, which put the savings at an average $705, or about 76%. KFF’s analysts say the difference stems from Trump administration changes to the way tax credits are calculated as well as rising premiums for 2026. Insurers in the Affordable Care Act marketplace are proposing the largest rate hikes since 2018, with a median increase of 18%, KFF says.
