The 35-day-old government shutdown will set a record tonight as the longest ever. As the funding lapse enters an unprecedented sixth week, optimism is percolating in the Senate that a deal to end the standoff may be coming together as bipartisan talks among rank-and-file lawmakers gather momentum.
“I do believe we are finally making progress. It’s too soon to declare that this nightmare of a shutdown is over, but I’m very cautiously hopeful that it will be resolved by the end of this week,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins told reporters Monday evening, while also warning that talks could still fall apart.
With no deal in place yet, the House-passed Republican bill to fund the government through November 21 was blocked again in the Senate on Tuesday, the 14th time the legislation has failed to advance.
Still, senators on both sides are reportedly pressing to move ahead with the annual government funding process and set up votes on a package of appropriations bills that have bipartisan support. The senators working behind the scenes to find a path forward reportedly include Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Chris Coons of Delaware and Gary Peters of Michigan. On the Republican side, Collins of Maine, Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Katie Britt of Alabama have been involved in the talks.
The nascent deal being discussed would also involve a vote on extending the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies at the heart of the shutdown fight. Many differences remain, though, including over the duration of a new stopgap bill that funds federal agencies to reopen the government.
Democrats divided: Democrats are also split on precisely what promises they need to get regarding the renewal of Affordable Care Act subsidies, the primary concession they have demanded. The deal being discussed would reportedly fall short of the goal many Democrats had set: to ensure that the subsidies set to expire at the end of the year are extended, preventing a surge in out-of-pocket premium costs.
Democrats had initially rejected the offer made by Senate Majority Leader John Thune to hold a vote on extending the expiring subsidies once the government reopens because it did not include any guarantee that the vote would succeed.
Before the shutdown began, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries insisted that any deal with Republicans to protect Americans’ healthcare be “ironclad” and in writing, but on Tuesday he indicated that he may have some wiggle room. Asked if House Democrats would be skeptical about an agreement coming from the Senate, Jeffries
“We said from the very beginning that we will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan agreement that emerges from the Senate, reopens the government, makes life better for the American people and decisively addresses the Republican healthcare crisis. Until we see details, we’re not in position to do much more than that.”
Other Democrats are pressing for the party to continue its fight until it secures a firm deal to extend the subsidies, not just a vote.
“If the Democrats cave on this, I think it would be a betrayal to millions and millions of working families who want them to stand up and protect their health care benefits,” Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats, told reporters on Tuesday. In an op-ed for The Guardian this weekend, Sanders warned that “surrendering” to Trump now would only speed his move toward authoritarianism.
Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut also cautioned against a deal and warned that Democrats would be “suckers” to think that Republicans who have long opposed Obamacare and its subsidies are suddenly going to back it in a month.
Warnings of more trouble ahead: With hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed or forced to work without pay, SNAP benefits interrupted for millions of Americans, airport delays causing havoc for travelers, the pressure to end the shutdown continues to intensify. The notices of insurance premium hikes being delivered to American households also adds to the pressure to find a solution on the Obamacare subsidies.
The pain may only get worse. The U.S. Travel Association, which represents companies in the travel and tourism industry, said in a letter to congressional leaders on Monday that their sector of the economy has already lost more than $4 billion because of the shutdown and urged them to “prevent a Thanksgiving travel crisis.”
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy followed that warning with one of his own today, suggesting that air travel will devolve into “mass chaos” if the shutdown continues and air traffic controllers miss a second payday next Tuesday. “You will see mass flight delays,” Duffy warned. “You’ll see mass cancellations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have air traffic controllers.”