The Senate last night voted 60-40 to pass the bipartisan deal to end the record-long government shutdown, with eight Democrats again joining with Republicans to get the bill past the finish line. Now it’s the House’s turn. Members are returning to the Capitol for their own vote on the bill tomorrow — the first vote in the House since September 19, more than seven weeks ago.
Speaker Mike Johnson has said he thinks he has the votes to pass the measure, which includes full-year funding for several agencies and keeps the rest of the federal government open through January. House Democratic leaders oppose the bill and are working to keep Democratic defections to a minimum.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday praised Republican congressional leaders and congratulated them for what he called “a very big victory” in the shutdown fight. “We’re opening up our country. Should’ve never been closed.”
Lingering questions: Left unresolved is the fate of the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and whether lawmakers will eventually do something to keep insurance premiums from soaring for millions of families. The Senate on Monday night rejected a simple one-year extension of the ACA tax credits, proposed by Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, in a 53-47 vote. All 53 Senate Republicans opposed the amendment. While the deal to reopen the government sets up a vote next month on a Democratic healthcare bill, Johnson has refused to commit to any House vote on the Affordable Care Act subsidies.
The agreement by eight moderate Democrats to agree to end the shutdown without securing concrete concessions regarding the subsidies has infuriated progressives and reignited calls for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer to be replaced.
Republicans feel vindicated today for refusing to negotiate with Democrats and instead waiting them out, allowing the effects of the shutdown to grow increasingly painful — and, in some cases, dialing up that pain themselves. While the Trump administration took extraordinary steps to pay military servicemembers and law enforcement officers, it also went to court to fight paying SNAP food benefits and required flight cancellations that left travelers frustrated and angry.
Still, it’s not clear if Republicans may face voter anger down the line for their role in the shutdown and their refusal to extend the more generous Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Another Obamacare fight: As the economy and the issue of affordability move to the political forefront, Democrats succeeded in using the shutdown to once again put healthcare costs on the national agenda. Voters favor Democrats on the issue, and Republicans, including Trump, have only begun to float their own plans to address it.
Johnson has repeatedly insisted in recent days that Republicans have long lists of ideas on healthcare, notebooks full of plans. Those claims are reminiscent of Trump’s own 2024 presidential debate comment that he has “concepts of a plan” on healthcare — and a reminder that Republicans have struggled for 15 years to coalesce around a healthcare fix. Trump has thus far only proposed a vague plan to replace the ACA subsidies with direct payments to help Americans pay for healthcare costs.
“We want a health care system where we pay the money to the people instead of the insurance companies and I tell you, we’re going to be working on that very hard over the next short period of time,” Trump told reporters Monday.
Looking to 2026: Democrats can hope that their shutdown gambit will pay off over the coming year by making clear to voters that they tried to keep healthcare costs down and that the blame for higher premium payments and unaffordable insurance coverage should fall on Republicans. That clash over staggering healthcare costs also ties into the broader battle over the state of the economy, as Trump defensively insists that conditions are much better than Americans perceive them to be. “We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” Trump insisted in an interview with Fox News on Monday. Americans seem to feel differently.
The final political outcome of the shutdown has yet to be determined. The two parties have a year to try to enact policies that address the cost-of-living concerns that now dominate the political conversation, or at least to convince voters that they, and not the other side, are the party of affordability. Democrats will have to see if they can avoid getting bogged down by infighting. Trump and Republicans will have to demonstrate that they have a plan. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
What’s next: The House is slated to convene tomorrow, and Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva of Arizona will be sworn in seven weeks after her special election win. The House will vote on the shutdown-ending deal — and then will leave town again until next week.