American consumers and companies are paying roughly 90% of the cost of President Trump’s tariffs, according to new research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University.
In an analysis published Thursday, economists Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan and Sebastian Heise of the New York Fed and David E. Weinstein of Columbia reviewed tariff rates and import data to determine who shouldered the burden of Trump tariffs between January and November 2025.
As a general rule, the cost of tariffs — which economists refer to as the tariff incidence — is split between exporters and importers. Although importers by definition pay the tariff fees at the port of entry, the cost is usually shared to some extent by exporters, who can lower their prices to help soften the blow of higher import taxes.
Since Trump began to impose dramatically higher tariffs on trading partners around the world, he and administration officials have insisted that the tariff incidence from the new levies is falling on foreign exporters, presumably through major price cuts. The data, however, indicates otherwise.
According to the four economists, between January and August of 2025, U.S. importers covered 94% of the cost of the tariffs. In October, the tariff incidence inched lower to 92%, and by November, the most recent data available, it stood at 86%. Although the incidence shifted over time, it’s clear that American consumers and companies were paying most of the cost throughout the year.
Over the course of the first 11 months of 2025, the average import tariff rate rose from 2.6% to 13%. The findings on the tariff incidence imply that consumer prices for imported goods rose on average 11% more than prices for goods not subject to the tariffs.
Similar findings: The results of the new research are consistent with other analyses. In January, the Kiel Institute concluded that American firms and consumers have paid 96% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs, while a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the tariff incidence is close to 100%.
In new economic projections released this week, the Congressional Budget Office said it expects the U.S. to pay 95% of the cost of the tariffs, with consumers ultimately bearing the full cost through higher prices. In addition, CBO said the tariffs will reduce investment and employment in the long run, lowering the level of gross domestic product relative to a scenario without the tariffs.
The bottom line: The researchers in the Fed paper offered a simple conclusion: “In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.”