The White House and GOP lawmakers have struggled with economic messaging in the face of affordability concerns that have only increased as the Iran war continues, causing gas prices to surge above $4 a gallon on average. With November’s midterm elections rapidly approaching, Tax Day provided a rare opportunity for the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to try to make some political hay by touting the trillions of dollars in tax cuts they passed last year in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Republicans now prefer to call the Working Families Tax Cuts.
“President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts have put a historic amount of money back into the pockets of the American people this year,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday. “With Tax Day officially here, the numbers prove these tax cuts have been nothing short of extraordinary.”
The tax season numbers so far: The IRS says that, as of the week ending April 3, nearly $242 billion in tax refunds were sent out, with an average refund of $3,462, up 11% from 2025. (That’s less than the increase of $1,000 or more that the White House had projected early this year.) The Treasury Department says that more than 53 million filers claimed at least one of President Trump’s signature new tax cuts, including more than 25 million who took advantage of the break for overtime wages (for an average deduction of more than $3,100) and more than 6 million who claimed the break for tip income (average deduction of more than $7,100).
Still, Americans’ views of their tax bills are increasingly negative. A recent Fox News poll found that a record 70% of voters think their taxes are too high, up 11 percentage points from March 2025, the largest annual increase since that poll first asked the question in 2004.
“The legislation is so revolutionary because it is permanent,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said at a news conference to tout the Republican tax law. “For the first time since 1986, Americans’ tax rates are permanently reduced. Permanently.”
While the lower tax rates first enacted in 2017 were made permanent, some of the key provisions of the law were only temporary, including Trump’s tax breaks for tips, overtime pay and certain auto loans as well as the new tax credit for seniors, which expire after 2028, and the raised $40,000 deduction limit for state and local taxes, which reverts to $10,000 after 2029. The federal government’s $1,000 contributions to “Trump accounts” are limited to certain children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028.
Democrats have their own Tax Day message: “Hardworking families are watching as the Trump administration spends billions to bomb Iran, yet they can’t seem to find any funding for health care, housing or food for hungry children,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the Democratic caucus chair.
Not a lot of talk about the fiscal impact: GOP messaging largely ignores Congressional Budget Office projections that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add some $4.2 trillion to the national debt through fiscal year 2034 (or $4.7 trillion after factoring in dynamic effects on the economy.)
“The central fiscal effect of the Act is clear: Despite substantial reductions in health, nutrition, and education spending, the Act substantially increases federal deficits and debt because of the magnitude of the tax cuts,” a recent Tax Policy Center report concluded. “Although most analyses find a short- or medium-term boost to economic activity, the resulting growth is not nearly large enough to offset the law’s substantial revenue losses.”
What’s next: The White House hopes to keep hammering the tax messaging this week; President Trump will head to Nevada tomorrow to tout the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But Trump himself has a habit of overshadowing economic messaging by making other headlines (such as threatening to fire the Fed chair). We’ll see if he does it again on Thursday.