The price of gasoline has surged again amid the ongoing war with Iran, hitting an average of $4.18 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA. Analysts are blaming an impasse in peace talks between Iran and the United States for the 1.6% jump in a single day.
Gas prices are touching highs not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and are more than $1 higher than they were before the start of the war. In March, gasoline registered its largest monthly price increase in nearly 60 years.
The underlying cost of crude oil has risen, as well, though it has bounced around depending on the state of the war. In Tuesday trading, West Texas futures touched $100 per barrel for June delivery, and Brent futures moved above $110.
In related news, oil giant BP reported Tuesday that its profit more than doubled in the first quarter of 2026. “Given soaring energy costs the stellar performance from BP was anticipated,” the Associated Press said, “yet it still exceeded the heightened expectations of industry analysts for both profit and revenue.”
More pain at the pump? Some energy analysts think that the price of oil has been held in check by President Trump’s repeated claims that the war with Iran is almost over, or that peace talks are going well. Those claims have been effective in keeping a lid on oil futures, which have remained close to $100 per barrel, even as the spot price of immediate purchase has soared closer to $140. But, as the war drags on, that may change.
“There’s a day of reckoning coming,” Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, told Politico. Pickering said he expects to see a price shock that arrives with the summer driving season. “It will be painful because I can tell you that the stock market’s ignoring this.”
Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at the non-interventionist think tank Defense Priorities, says that Trump’s efforts to hold back energy prices could backfire as oil producers sit on their hands. “By talking down the market so effectively, when the price spike becomes inevitable, it’s going to hurt way worse because we’ll have lost weeks or even months of time where producers could have been ramping up output,” she told Politico.