The main Social Security trust fund will run dry in late 2032, resulting in a 22% reduction in benefits unless Congress acts to shore up the program’s finances, according to the latest projections from the program’s trustees. That means that more than 70 million people could see a significant reduction in their retirement incomes in just six years.
The trustees’ annual report, released Tuesday, moves the depletion date of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund up by one quarter from last year’s projections to the fourth quarter of 2032. The separate, smaller Disability Insurance Trust Fund is projected to remain in the black for at least the next 75 years.
If the reserves of the two trust funds were combined, the resulting fund would run dry in the third quarter of 2034, and revenues would be sufficient to cover 83% of scheduled benefits. (“The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program,” the trustees’ report says.)
What’s behind the revisions: The report names several factors driving the new projections. Analysts have lowered the estimated fertility rate from 1.90 children per woman to 1.75, thereby lowering the long-term estimates for the total number of workers, payroll taxes collected and economic growth. Analysts have also cut their projections of the number of immigrants coming to the United States in the future, further weighing on growth estimates.
On the revenue side, the trustees say that the tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that became law last summer will reduce inflows into the Social Security trust funds.
Some key details: Total income for the combined Social Security Trust Funds was $1.45 trillion in 2025. About $1.32 trillion of that total came from payroll taxes, $58 billion came from income taxation of benefits paid and $69 billion came from interest. The combined trust fund reserves earned an interest rate of 2.6%.
Social Security paid out $1.60 trillion in 2025, with roughly 70 million beneficiaries at the end of the year. An estimated 185 million people paid payroll taxes.
The Social Security program cost $7 billion to run in 2025 — or about 0.4% of total expenditures.
Calls for reform: Frank J. Bisignano, the commissioner of Social Security, noted that Congress has work to do to stabilize the program. “To protect the promise of Social Security, it is important for lawmakers and the Social Security Administration to work together to ensure the trust funds continue to provide financial stability now and for future generations,” he said.
Myechia Minter-Jordan, chief executive of AARP, called on lawmakers to work together on the problem. “This should be a wake-up call: Congress needs to act,” she said. “Americans have worked hard and paid into Social Security their entire lives, and they deserve to count on it when they retire. No family should see any cuts to what they’ve earned in Social Security.”
Medicare Part A weakening: The Medicare trustees — who are the same as the Social Security trustees, though the boards are technically separate — also published their annual report Tuesday. According to those latest projections, the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, known as Medicare Part A, is projected to run dry in the second quarter of 2033, a quarter earlier than previously projected. At that point, revenues would cover an estimated 89% of scheduled benefits.
The Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund, which covers Medicare Parts B and D, faces no shortfalls. Unlike the other trust funds, its financing is adjusted each year to cover all required payments.