The federal budget deficit came to an estimated $1.8 trillion in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, according to the latest monthly analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.
The total is $169 billion larger than the deficit recorded over the same period last year. Revenues from October through July rose $139 billion, or 3%, but outlays rose $308 billion, or 5%.
As always, the timing of weekends and holidays affected the deficit number. If the calendar in 2026 had been the same as in 2025, the 10-month deficit would have been $1.7 trillion, about $71 billion higher year-over-year.
Based on the latest data, CBO now estimates that the deficit for the full 2026 fiscal year will come to $2.1 trillion — a $200 billion jump from the estimate CBO issued in February. Much of that gap is related to the loss of revenues following the Supreme Court’s rejection of much of President Trump’s tariff policy.
Those lost revenues, combined with the cost of refunding some of the illegal tariffs collected earlier in the year, helped push the monthly deficit number to $431 billion in July.
The deficit hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget expressed dismay over the latest numbers. “We’re on track to surpass $2 trillion in borrowing this fiscal year despite not being in a recession. That is not normal,” CRFB’s Maya MacGuineas said in a statement. “Incredibly, such an enormous level of borrowing barely scratches the surface of our fiscal deterioration. We are about to hit the sobering milestone of $40 trillion in gross national debt, and things are only likely to get worse.”