| | | Trump Predicts ‘Best Stimulus Package You’ve Ever Seen’ — After the Election
President Trump predicted Tuesday that he’ll sign off on a coronavirus relief package after the election — and not just any relief package. “After the election, we’ll get the best stimulus package you’ve ever seen,” Trump told reporters.
Trump blamed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for the lack of a deal thus far, again pointing to Democratic efforts to provide more aid money to states and cities facing a pandemic-related budget crunch. “Nancy Pelosi is only interested in bailing out badly run, crime-ridden Democrat cities and states. That’s all she’s interested in. She’s not interested in helping the people,” Trump said, adding that Republicans would win control the House as a result.
“We’ll take back the House. We’ll hold the Senate. We’ll hold the White House,” Trump maintained.
The reality: Trump’s pre-election bluster is at odds with current election forecasts, which point to the GOP losing seats in both the House and Senate and have him facing a difficult path to reelection. At the same time, prospects of a stimulus deal have clearly evaporated, for now. Both the House and Senate have left Washington, D.C. until after the election and negotiations between Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “have largely been shelved after repeated failed attempts to broker a compromise,” The Washington Post reports:
“Their talks showed scant evidence of progress, but neither Pelosi nor Mnuchin seems to want to be the one to say it’s over. Pelosi continues to insist she wants a deal before the election that would include another round of $1,200 stimulus checks, among other things. But at the same time, her rhetoric has shifted in recent days to emphasize the possibility of a bigger and better relief bill passing in future, with retroactive benefits — a scenario that would seem possible only under a Biden administration.” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Tuesday morning suggested to Politico that negotiators may never have been all that close to agreement: “That was a very complicated negotiation,” he said. “Depending on who you talk to, I’m not sure they got very close.”
The bottom line: With Election Day a week away, talk of a coronavirus relief deal is now either in the past or future tense. Nothing is happening right now. “We’ll come back in November,” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL). “The question might be, will there be something then?”
|
|
| Quotes of the Day
“As the covid pandemic surges again, the American people desperately need additional relief to deal with the economic fallout, but Speaker Pelosi’s intransigence and the Trump administration’s ineptitude have combined to deny it to them, at least until after the election.”
– Michael Steel, a GOP strategist who was a top aide to former House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), in The Washington Post.
"Do I wish that it was a higher priority for the president to rein in spending and the debt? Yes. He didn't run, principally on reining in spending and deficit and debt. That's not what he promised to do. We had real differences between it — and you know what, the voters made a decision."
– Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), in an Axios interview.
Axios’s Orion Rummler notes that former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said earlier this year that the GOP "is very interested in deficits when there is a Democrat in the White House ... Then Donald Trump became president, and we're a lot less interested as a party." Cruz, who voted for the 2017 GOP tax cuts, acknowledged to Axios that Republicans would likely "rediscover" their debt fears, but insisted that the issue has always been a priority for him. “He argued that while the 2017 Republican tax cut contributed significantly to the debt, pro-growth policies are also key to reducing deficits," Rummler notes.
|
|
| Poll of the Day: Federal Response to Coronavirus
Most people think public institutions have improved their responses to the Covid-19 crisis — except for the federal government. “Americans believe the federal government's handling of the pandemic has gotten significantly worse over time,” Margaret Talev of Axios wrote Tuesday, referring to the latest Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index. “The findings suggest people see President Trump and his political team as one of the biggest impediments to turning things around.”
|
|
| | Wall Street Is Counting on More Government Spending
Traders on Wall Street are placing their bets on a “blue wave” come Election Day.
While Joe Biden’s plan for higher taxes on business and the wealthy doesn’t sit well with many on Wall Street, Politico’s Ben White says the prospect of a substantial and well-targeted stimulus package outweighs those concerns. Investors are betting that Democrats can win control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, resulting in a new round of government spending worth as much as $3 trillion – enough to carry the economy until conditions can return to something like pre-pandemic levels.
“Far from panicking at the prospect of a Biden win,” White says, “Wall Street CEOs, traders and investment managers now mostly say they would be fine with a change in the White House that reduces the Trump noise, lowers the threat of further trade wars and ensures a continuation of the government spending they’ve seen in recent years.”
Alternative scenarios: Some Wall Streeters aren’t convinced that a Democratic sweep would be best and would prefer instead to see divided control in Washington to act as a brake on spending. “The thing I’m concerned about with the blue wave is that we go too far on fiscal support and we don’t act responsibly,” one executive told White. “A Biden win and the GOP holding the Senate would temper a lot of that. And everybody actually agrees that we need more stimulus.”
Divided government could have its downsides, though. Richard Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, told White that Republicans maintaining control of the Senate “is the worst scenario because Washington will become like sclerotic Europe and get nothing done. Uncertainty will remain an investment theme. And deregulation likely reverses.”
A Trump win, on the other hand, could cause a powerful reaction on Wall Street, with traders celebrating the continuation of lower taxes and weakened regulations with a big jump in the markets. However, the run-up may not last, White says, as the prospect of heightened trade wars and a lingering pandemic chip away at investor confidence.
|
|
| No Pre-Election Details on Trump’s Promised Tax Cuts
Add President Trump’s second term tax plan to the long list of items that he will release at some point in the future. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Monday that while administration officials have been discussing new tax cuts, there are no plans to release a proposal before the election.
“Look, we’ve put out a lot,” Kudlow told Fox News. “We’ve mentioned it. I’ve talked about it. I don’t see any reason why we have to put out a detailed plan.”
The Trump campaign has listed some proposals for tax and economic policy in Trump’s second term, including “Cut Taxes to Boost Take-Home Pay” and “Create 10 Million New Jobs in 10 Months.” But as Bloomberg noted, the campaign hasn’t provided any details on how it would accomplish those goals.
|
|
| The Democratic Senators Set to Take Over Key Committees
With a week to go in the election, Democrats are favored to win control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast — but it’s close.
Given that outlook, Politico’s Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan look ahead to which senators would take over as committee chairs if Democrats do reclaim a majority in the chamber for the first time since 2014.
The new chairs “will include a senator tried on federal corruption charges, two octogenarians, a democratic socialist and a former tech industry executive, among others,” they write. “Potential committee chairs include 79-year-old Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at Budget; 80-year-old Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) at Appropriations; 87-year-old Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) at Judiciary; Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) at Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs; Mark Warner (D-Va.) at Intelligence; and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) at Foreign Relations.”
Here’s a bit more on four chairs who will play critical roles on the fiscal policy front.
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon would lead the Finance Committee, giving him a key role in Democratic efforts to rolls back parts of the 2017 GOP tax cuts. Wyden told Politico that he’s also focused on another coronavirus relief package. “We’re going to make sure that the lesson of the Great Recession is learned — you don’t take your foot off the gas in the middle of an economic recovery,” he said.
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is poised to take over the Budget Committee chairmanship. “Sanders’ committee would be involved in crafting reconciliation bills, allowing a potential Biden administration to push tax and spending bills through the Senate on a simple-majority vote,” Politico notes. Sanders told the site that he would look to “create a budget that works for working families, and not the billionaire class.” Sanders has reportedly also expressed interest in joining a Democratic administration as Labor secretary, but such an appointment would allow Vermont’s Republican governor to appoint a temporary successor to the Senate.
Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont would take the reins of the powerful Appropriations Committee, responsible for writing the spending bills that allocate federal dollars across government departments and agencies. “With Leahy atop Appropriations and Sanders chairing Budget, a small state like Vermont would have an outsize impact on federal spending, and it would almost certainly guarantee additional funds for the state,” Politico notes.
Sen. Patty Murray of Washington would lead the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, giving her a crucial role in Democratic efforts to protect, expand and improve on Obamacare — potentially including Joe Biden’s proposed creation of a public option. Read more at Politico.
|
|
| | | | | | | - If Trump Wins, Don’t Hold Your Breath Waiting for That ACA Replacement Plan – Julie Rovner, Kaiser Health News
- If the ACA Falls, Protecting Preexisting Conditions Could Be Harder Than It Sounds – Selena Simmons-Duffin, NPR
- We Just Had a Decade-Long Debate on Health Care, and Democrats Won – Paul Waldman, Washington Post
- States Need Billions to Prepare for COVID-19 Vaccines. The Federal Government Isn’t Helping – Katherine Harmon Courage, Vox
- Why North and South Dakota Are Suffering the Worst COVID-19 Epidemics in the US – German Lopez, Vox
- The Trump Tax Cut Wasn’t Just for the Rich – Peter Coy, Bloomberg
- Why the Best G.D.P. Report Ever Won’t Mean the Economy Has Healed – Ben Casselman, New York Times
- Don’t Let Flashy 3rd Quarter GDP Growth Fool You, the Economy Is Still in a Big Hole – Jay Shambaugh, Brookings Institution
- A Rising Deficit Isn't the U.S. Economy's Worst Problem – Noah Smith, Bloomberg
- Political Progress Is Possible in America. But Only if We Don't Give Up — and Only if We Vote. – Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), NBC News Think
- A Long Overdue Discussion on Pentagon Spending – William D. Hartung and Ben Freeman, The Hill
- Paid Leave and Child Care Are Fundamental to Recovery – Erika L. Moritsugu and Avenel Joseph, The Hill
- I Ran the Numbers Again. Stocks Are Not the Economy – Nir Kaissar, Bloomberg
|
|
|
|
|