A Disturbing New Pandemic Record

By Yuval Rosenberg

When to Expect the Next Coronavirus Relief Bill

When can Americans expect to see the next coronavirus relief
bill, which is expected to include some $2 trillion in aid for the
unemployed, state and local governments, small businesses and
efforts to contain the Covid-19 pandemic? Key players in Washington
sent mixed signals Friday, suggesting it could be weeks before any
progress is made.

President Trump repeated his claim that he expected a
“tremendous” coronavirus relief package to come “immediately after
the election,” but the lawmakers who will make or break the deal
appear to have different plans.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
said Friday that he expects to address another
round of Covid-related spending “right at the beginning of the
year,” and that the legislation would focus on aid to small
businesses and hospitals facing a resurgence of the virus.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she was in more of a
hurry, telling MSNBC that she wanted to have a bill passed before
the presidential inauguration in January, adding that “we don’t
want to have to wait that long, because people have needs.”

Is a deal even possible? A senior GOP aide
told The Hill conditions on Capitol Hill could
well improve after the election, with Republicans less worried
about angering their supporters by making a deal with Pelosi that
involves spending on Democratic priorities such as aid for state
and local governments. At the same time, Democrats will lose their
motivation to deny Trump a victory by passing a bill, making it
easier for both sides to come to an agreement.

“The motivation level on both sides will depend on how the
election comes out, but I think either way we’ll do something. The
question is how much,” Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said.

Others have their doubts. A Democratic aide said that
Republicans wouldn’t have much interest in making a deal if
Democrats record big gains in the election. “I don’t think there is
a package, period, if they lose,” the source told The Hill.
Instead, the source expected Republicans to return to the same
stance they took with President Obama, refusing to pass a
substantial relief package in the name of fiscal
austerity.

Quote of the Day

“It’s been surprising to me how long consumers have been able
to hold on. We’re tempting fate by waiting until next year to re-up
some of the stimulus measures.”

– Megan Greene, an economist at Harvard’s Kennedy School
of Government, in a
Politico piece looking at how millions of
Americans face a debt crunch as they run out of money and “will
face hard choices between food purchases and payments on rent,
credit cards and student loans.”

Coronavirus Pandemic Sets New Record

The United States keeps setting troubling Covid-19 records. The
number of daily cases hit a new high of 88,521 on Thursday, up
nearly 83% over the last month, and the weekly case count rose to

536,131, according to data from Johns Hopkins
University.

On Friday, the nation surpassed
9 million total cases — just two weeks after it
reached 8 million.

“It’s not just a few areas driving the surge, as was the
case early on,” The New York Times
reports. “Half of U.S. counties saw new cases peak
during the past month. Almost a third saw a record in the past
week.”

Forty-three states have reportedly seen an increase in
cases compared to last week, and nine states reported single-day
records for new cases on Thursday. Bloomberg News reports that

14 states recorded all-time highs in cases this
week.

Death toll projected to surge: “The recent surge in cases
has not yet brought a similar surge in reported deaths, which can
lag cases by up to several weeks. But already deaths are increasing
in
about half of states,” the Times says.

Another 971 people died of the disease on Thursday, even as
Donald Trump Jr. told Fox News that the number of Americans dying
from Covid-19 amounts to “almost nothing.” And
The Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation at the University of Washington School of
Medicine projects that it’s likely that
some 2,250 Americans will be dying daily by the
middle of January.

The death toll could climb from more than 229,000 as of Friday
to about 400,000 by February 1. “If states do not react to rising
numbers by re-imposing mandates, cumulative deaths could reach
514,000 by the same date,” IHME said in its latest
report. On the other hand, increasing mask use to
the level seen in Singapore could prevent 62,000 deaths by
February, IMHE said.

So wear a mask.

Government Spending Still Providing Major Boost for Economy:
Report

Fiscal policies continued to have a powerful effect on the
economy in the third quarter, boosting growth by 5.4 percentage
points on an annualized basis, according to the
latest Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure,
released Friday.

While the effects of government spending and tax policies were
more pronounced in the second quarter, increasing growth by 14
points, the results for the third quarter were still exceptional,
the second highest reading on the measure since 1973.

“Taxes, subsidies, and transfer programs account for the largest
component of the increase in the FIM over the past two quarters,”
Brookings’ Kadija Yilla and Louise Sheiner said Friday. “This
category captures the boosts to consumption from the CARES Act’s
payments to households and expanded unemployment benefits, as well
as from the automatic stabilizers—the reduction in taxes and
increases in unemployment and SNAP benefits that occur
automatically when an economy falls into recession.”

Looking ahead, the analysts say that if lawmakers fail to
pass another round of relief and stimulus, the effects of fiscal
policy will reverse. “Without any additional stimulus, we project
that fiscal policy will become a drag on economic growth in coming
quarters,” they wrote.

The 10 Wonks Most Likely to Influence Joe Biden’s
Economic Policy

A Biden administration is likely to see a split between
“legacy elements of the Democratic Party and a reformist Left,”
political-risk advisory firm Baron Public Affairs says in a new
report that seeks to analyze which outside experts and
organizations are likely to shape the Democratic candidate’s
economic policy.

“The 10 influencers were chosen through an analysis of the
writings and remarks of 33 advisers, campaign officials, and
platform committee members surrounding Biden, including California
Senator Kamala Harris, his running mate,” Bloomberg Businessweek’s
Peter Coy
reports. “That produced a list of the
thinkers whom those people most often cited.”

The
list includes:

  • Michael Linden, executive director of the
    Groundwork Collaborative, which works with “progressive movement
    leaders and activists on the front lines of progressive
    causes.”
  • Jason Furman, who chaired the Council of
    Economic Advisers under President Obama and is now a
    professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of
    Government and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for
    International Economics.
  • Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the
    Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who was an economic adviser
    to Biden from 2009 to 2011.
  • Heather Boushey, co-founder of the
    Washington Center for Equitable Growth. Baron notes that The
    New York Times described her as “at the forefront of a
    generation of economists rethinking their discipline.”
  • Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and
    director of policy at the Economic Policy
    Institute.
  • Gene Sperling, who was director of
    the National Economic Council under both Bill Clinton and Barack
    Obama.
  • Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury Department
    economist who is now managing director and policy economist at
    research firm Evercore ISI.
  • Justin Wolfers of the Gerald R. Ford School of
    Public Policy at the University of Michigan and the Peterson
    Institute for International Economics.
  • Martha Gimbel, senior manager for economic
    research at Schmidt Futures, an organization founded by former
    Google CEO Eric Schmidt dedicated to advancing
    science.
  • Matt Stoller, director of
    research at the American Economic Liberties
    Project.

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