Dems’ Bill Would Add $200 Billion to Deficits: Watchdog

By Yuval Rosenberg

CBO to Congress: Full Score of Social Spending Bill Will Take
Time

The Congressional Budget Office told lawmakers on Tuesday that
they’ll have to wait to see the full analysis of the roughly $1.8
trillion Build Back Better bill.

In a brief
statement, Director Phillip L. Swagel said that the CBO
would release parts of its analysis as they become available, with
some arriving as soon as this week, but the full analysis will take
some time.

"The analysis of the bill’s many provisions is complicated, and
CBO will provide a cost estimate for the entire bill as soon as
practicable," Swagel said. "When we determine a release date for
the cost estimate for the entire bill, we will provide advance
notice."

A commitment to vote: Late last week, in a move that
unlocked progressive support for the bipartisan infrastructure
bill, a small number of moderate Democrats in the House pledged to
vote for the Build Back Better bill if or when the CBO provides a
score that backs up the White House claim that the cost of the
legislation is fully offset by tax hikes and other revenue
sources.

"We commit to voting for the Build Back Better Act, in its
current form other than technical changes, as expeditiously as we
receive fiscal information from the Congressional Budget Office –
but in no event later than the week of November 15th," five
centrists — Reps. Ed Case (HI), Josh Gottheimer (NJ), Stephanie
Murphy (FL), Kurt Schrader (OR) and Kathleen Rice (NY) — said in a
statement Friday.

The CBO statement Tuesday raises questions about whether
Democrats will be able to stick to that schedule. House Budget
Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) said last week that he expects the CBO
score to take as long as two weeks, potentially pushing a House
vote into the week of November 22 at the earliest.

Still, House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Tuesday that she
plans to stick to the current schedule. "That is our plan — to pass
the bill the week of Nov. 15 as was indicated in our statements
that were made at the time of passing the infrastructure bill,"
Pelosi said while attending the COP26 climate summit in
Scotland.

Build Back Better Bill Would Add $200 Billion to Deficits:
Watchdog

While lawmakers wait for an official Congressional Budget Office
score of the House’s Build Back Better bill, an independent

analysis released Monday by a budget watchdog
group found that the legislation would add about $200 billion to
federal deficits through 2031.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that
the latest version of the reconciliation package includes about
$2.4 trillion in spending and tax cuts and $2.2 trillion in
offsetting revenue.

The White House and congressional Democrats have said that the
cost of their bill would be offset — or more than fully covered.
The CRFB estimates fall short of that goal largely because of the
group’s projection for revenue generated by increased tax
enforcement. CRFB estimates that the legislation will generate
about $125 billion in net revenue through measures to beef up tax
compliance, including an $80 billion, 10-year boost in IRS funding.
That’s far less than the White House estimate of about $400 billion
in net revenue.

CRFB also noted that extending temporary provisions in the bill
could greatly increase the total cost of the legislation, adding $2
trillion to $2.5 trillion. "Whether these contribute to the debt
depends on the existence or absence of future offsets," the group
said.

The group also acknowledged that the actual deficit impact "is
likely to be somewhat lower" than its $200 billion estimate,
depending on the ultimate cost of immigration provisions and
whether some of the budget authority provided winds up being spent
in 2032 or later.

A pinch from SALT? The CRFB analysis finds that
Democrats’ proposed temporary increase in the cap on state and
local tax deductions would raise a little revenue in the near term,
but likely lower revenue over the longer term.

Roll Call’s Lindsey McPherson
explains:

"The group counts Democrats’ proposal to raise the
current $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions to $80,000
through 2030, with a brief snapback to $10,000 in 2031, as both an
expenditure and an offset. The provision would cost $285 billion
through 2025, when the current $10,000 cap is set to expire, and
raise $300 billion after that, resulting in a net $15 billion in
revenue, according to CRFB’s numbers.

"That’s consistent with Democrats’ estimates that
the SALT provision would raise $14 billion over 10 years, in a
deliberate attempt to make the increased cap pay for itself over
time. … But they note the cap increase ‘would substantially
increase the cost of extending’ other individual provisions in the
2017 GOP tax law that are set to expire after 2025 ‘and thus is
likely to result in lower revenue collections over
time.’"

The bottom line: If the CBO’s official score does
find a shortfall, the White House has reportedly committed to
finding additional revenue to make up the difference and ensure
that the offsets match the spending.

Conservatives Urge Punishment for 13 Republicans Who Backed
Infrastructure Bill

Some conservatives are
lashing out at the 13 House Republicans who last
week helped Democrats pass the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill,
urging that those members of their own party be punished for
advancing President Joe Biden’s agenda.

"The question for Leader McCarthy and the rest of our
conference, really, is whether or not we will allow people to be
designated as Republican leaders on major committees and
subcommittees while they fight for the Joe Biden agenda and against
the America First agenda," Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) said in an
interview with Newsmax cited by
Politico.

Gaetz’s comments come after right-wing Rep. Marjorie Taylor
Greene (R-GA) labeled the 13 Republicans as traitors and posted
their phone numbers. Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) told a Michigan radio
station that he had gotten some "nasty" death threats after
Greene’s post.

The infrastructure package, you’ll recall, is commonly called
the bipartisan infrastructure framework. After being hashed out by
a group of senators from both parties, it passed the Senate in a
69-30 August vote, with 19 Republicans joining all 50 Democrats in
supporting it despite pressure from former President Donald Trump
to oppose it. Trump, who had unsuccessfully pursued an
infrastructure bill throughout his term in office, wanted to deny
President Joe Biden and Democrats a victory.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), one of the 19
Senate Republicans who voted for the bill, on Monday called the
legislation
a "godsend" for his state.

Number of the Day: 432,565

More than 430,000 children under age 12 have received at
least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to preliminary data
from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Pfizer-BioNTech’s pediatric coronavirus vaccine received emergency
use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration on October
29 and the CDC recommended use of the vaccine a week ago. The CDC
data show that more than 227,000 children younger than 12 years old
have started getting vaccinated over the past two weeks. The CDC
said that the data is subject to change and will be updated later
this week.

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