How’s your Wednesday going? Congress is pressing toward a debt limit increase and the House late Tuesday passed a massive annual defense policy bill. But while lawmakers are making progress on those key items, Democrats' social spending bill still faces some hurdles, especially given the most recent comments from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Here’s what you need to know.
Pelosi Wants to Pass Biden Agenda by Christmas, but Manchin May Have Other Plans
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Wednesday that she expects the bill containing much of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda to pass both houses of Congress before the holiday break.
“We feel very confident about what is in Build Back Better,” Pelosi told reporters. “We know what some possibilities are, and it would be my hope that we would have this bill done before the Christmas vacation.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is also pushing to finish the roughly $2 trillion package focused on social and climate programs before lawmakers leave town in December.
But at least one member of Schumer’s caucus may make it hard to stick to that timetable. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal event Tuesday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) reiterated his concerns about the bill, saying that he still wants to take a “strategic pause” to give lawmakers time to evaluate the state of the Covid-19 pandemic and the strength of the economy, with a special focus on inflation.
“The unknown we’re facing today is much greater than the need that people believe in this aspirational bill that we’re looking at,” Manchin said Tuesday. “We’ve gotta make sure we get this right. We just can’t continue to flood the market, as we’ve done.”
While Manchin hasn’t explicitly said he is opposed to passing the bill in the next few weeks, he has held back from expressing support for Democratic leadership's ambitious timetable.
A gentle lobbying effort: Manchin and another potential Democratic holdout, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, are the object of a lobbying campaign in the Senate to win their support for the bill. The Washington Post’s Mike DeBonis reports that fellow Democrats have had “polite, respectful and substantive” conversations with the two as they try to lock down two votes they can’t afford to lose in an evenly divided chamber, though so far without noticeable effect.
“To me, the priority is getting 50 votes,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT). “Joe’s been pretty clear about the parts of the House-passed bill that he doesn’t like, and I think there’s still some work to be done. So we’re all going to be invested in creative solutions to get all 50 of us to yes.”
House could remain in town: Pelosi said she is prepared to keep the House in session beyond Friday, when the winter break is officially scheduled to start. If the Senate does pass the Build Back Better bill, it’s expected that its version will differ in some ways from that of the House, and the Democratic leader says she is prepared to work on finalizing the bill as needed.
A Republican Rift Over Raising the Debt Ceiling
The House late Tuesday passed a $768 billion defense policy bill and a separate procedural measure that sets up a fast-track increase in the federal government’s debt limit and delays scheduled cuts in Medicare and other programs.
The procedural bill — essentially allowing for a one-time suspension of the Senate’s filibuster rules — was the result of a deal struck by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). It passed the House by a margin of 222-212 and is expected to get a vote in the Senate on Thursday. If it passes that chamber, Democrats would then be able to raise the $28.9 trillion debt limit on their own, with only a simple majority required in the Senate.
But Republican votes will be needed to get to that point, and Senate GOP members are reportedly divided on the plan, though McConnell has backed it and predicted that enough of his members would do the same. "I’m confident that this particular procedure coupled with the avoidance of Medicare cuts will achieve enough Republican support to clear the 60-vote threshold," he told reporters.
McConnell reportedly approved the extraordinary process because it meets the criteria he set out months ago: forcing the Democrats to raise the debt limit on their own, and to increase it by a specific amount rather than suspend it for a period of time — a combination that Republicans see as ammunition for continued midterm campaign attacks slamming Democrats for their spending. “The red line is intact,” McConnell told reporters Tuesday.
Still, numerous members of McConnell’s conference, including some members of his leadership team, reportedly have pushed back on the plan. “I don’t think Republicans should be facilitating adding trillions in debt,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said, according to Politico. And all but one House Republican, Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, voted against the procedural bill. "Make no mistake. This debt ceiling is being lifted to pay for trillions of wasteful socialist spending," charged Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX).
Politico’s Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers laid out some of the factors driving the Republican rift: “The split between Senate and House Republicans boils down to two key factors: former President Donald Trump and parliamentary rules. The gerrymandered House makes those lawmakers far leerier of primary challenges, which makes bucking [former President Donald] Trump the biggest risk to many House Republicans’ careers. And Trump hates every deal McConnell cuts, from infrastructure to spending to the debt ceiling.”
So when will the debt limit actually be raised — and by how much? Congress is expected to take action by December 15, the date laid out by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, but the details aren’t clear yet. “Some independent forecasts estimate it would take something like $2 trillion in additional borrowing authority to make it past the November 2022 midterm elections,” Roll Call notes.
The bottom line: Politico’s Playbook noted Wednesday morning that McConnell may have gotten what he wanted — Democrats will own the debt ceiling hike — but he’s now dealing with a mess that he arguably made for himself by playing politics with the debt limit. “The debt ceiling had typically been dealt with on a bipartisan basis in the Senate — until McConnell drew his red line. He could have left precedent alone and avoided this headache. We’ll see in the long run if it was worth it politically for the GOP.”
The deal does free up Democrats to again focus on passing their Build Back Better Act, though that also means it frees them up to resume their intraparty clashes.
Quote of the Day: The GOP Bind on Debt Deal
“It’s an easy vote just to vote no. There’s nobody back home that thinks you should cooperate, in red states, with Democrats at all. I personally think we have a responsibility for those things we’ve agreed on with the operation of government … that’s not a very popular position to take back home.”
—Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) talking to Politico about anger among Republicans in the House over the deal reached in the Senate that will allow Democrats to raise the debt ceiling without the threat of a filibuster from the GOP. “No Republican should enable the Democrats’ reckless spending agenda,” said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), who leads the combative House Freedom Caucus. “It is offensive and dangerous that Leader McConnell is circumventing the 60-vote rule to allow the Senate to raise the debt ceiling with a simple majority.”
Number of the Day: 4.2 Million
About 4.2 million people quit their jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday, highlighting a labor market that continues to experience extraordinary churn. The quits total is close to the record of 4.4 million set in September. The number of job openings in the economy also registered unusually high levels in October, rising to slightly more than 11 million, just below the all-time high set in July.
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News
- GOP Working to Lock Down Votes on McConnell Debt Deal – The Hill
- How Schumer and McConnell Got the Debt Deal Done – Politico
- Trump Rips McConnell for Not Using the Debt Ceiling to Block Biden's Agenda – Business Insider
- Manchin Repeats Call for ‘Strategic Pause’ in Big Spending Package – Roll Call
- Democrats Lobby Manchin and Sinema — Politely — as They Try to Save Their Priorities for the Domestic Policy Package – Washington Post
- Defense Bill’s Assistance for Poor Troops Falls Short, Advocates Say – Roll Call
- How Tech Is Helping Poor People Get Government Aid – New York Times
- Health Care Industry Seeks Surprise Billing Changes This Month – Roll Call
- Dems Begin Souring on Vaccine Mandates –Politico
- Pfizer Says Third Dose of Its COVID Vaccine Protects Against Omicron – USA Today
- Omicron Could Overtake Delta Within Weeks, Experts Say – Roll Call
- Two Years Into This Pandemic, the World Is Dangerously Unprepared for the Next One, Report Says – Washington Post
- Unvaccinated Hospital Patients in Illinois Should Pay for Their Covid-19 Care, Democrat Proposes – Washington Post
- Biden Orders Federal Vehicles and Buildings to Use Renewable Energy by 2050 – New York Times
Views and Analysis
- Why Mitch McConnell Caved Again – Russell Berman, The Atlantic
- Why the Senate Is Making a One-Time Exception to the Filibuster – Li Zhou, Vox
- GOP Senators Make a Powerful Case Against GOP Control of the House – Greg Sargent, Washington Post
- Four States Are Giving Jobless Aid to Those Fired Over Vaccine Mandates – Rachel Roubein, Washington Post
- The Supreme Court Is Ready to Make Taxpayers Fund Religious Schools – Jay Michaelson, New York
- The Next Fed Meeting Will Offer More Surprises – Bill Dudley, Bloomberg
- The White House Gets Testy Over Its Coronavirus Testing Regimen – Aaron Blake, Washington Post
- Yes, Americans Should Get Free Tests – Aaron E. Carroll, New York Times
- The Benefit of Getting Vaccinated, Visualized – Philip Bump, Washington Post
- I’m an E.R. Doctor in Michigan, Where Unvaccinated People Are Filling Hospital Beds – Rob Davidson, New York Times