All the Weapons the US Is Sending Ukraine

By Yuval Rosenberg

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Expanded Child Tax Credit Would Pay Huge Dividends: Report

Federally funded child benefit programs that provide cash transfers to families provide long-term benefits that significantly exceed their costs, according to a new study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Relying on existing studies of the effects of cash and near-cash transfer programs such as food stamps and the Earned Income Tax Credit, a team of seven researchers from Columbia University and the Open Sky Policy Institute looked at the long-term benefits produced by such programs for children and parents. Those benefits include future earnings and taxes paid, educational attainment and multiple positive health outcomes for children, and greater health and longevity for parents.

The researchers then compared the cost of providing those benefits to the associated decline in costs of providing things like health care, child protective services, criminal justice and other social welfare programs.

Overall, the researchers concluded that the benefits of virtually all cash-transfer programs outweigh their costs, by a factor of between five and 10, depending on the program and the need of the households involved.

Yes, but: The study comes with some important limitations. For one thing, the researchers had little data on the variation of effects by income. It’s likely that a very low-income household will receive far more benefits from $1,000 in cash aid than a household closer to the middle class, but the researchers had little insight into different effects for different income groups. And researchers could not determine how rapidly the positive effects decline as cash transfers increase. It’s likely that the first $1,000 in aid produces more powerful effects than the second or third thousand, but researchers do not have a good way of determining by exactly how much.

A look at Democrats’ child tax credit: The researchers applied their results to the costs and benefits of the proposal backed by the Biden White House to provide a permanent refundable child tax credit, similar to the temporary program included in the American Rescue Plan in 2021 that expired in December. In their analysis, the program, which provides cash benefits of $3,600 per child under the age of 6 and $3,000 per child between ages 6 and 17 for qualifying households, would cost about $97 billion per year, while providing about $982 billion a year in overall benefits — "very high net returns for the U.S. population," the authors write.

The largest single component of that benefit comes in terms of the health and longevity of children, which the researchers calculated to be worth $424 billion. But even in the more concrete terms of income, the program still produces a net positive, with children’s future earnings rising by an estimated $270 billion. Public health expenditures are projected to decline by $16 billion, while the decline in the overall cost of crime is a substantial $208 billion.

Once all the savings and increased expenditures are factored in (including, for example, higher Social Security spending for beneficiaries who lead longer lives), the net savings for taxpayers in terms of direct expenditures comes to $135 billion, the researchers said.

"While this benefit-cost ratio is quite high, it is in the same ballpark as other investments in children such as high-quality pre-k programs, public education, and Medicaid," the researchers said.

Better child care would provide big benefits, too: A separate report released by The Century Foundation, a liberal think tank, finds that the proposal to subsidize child care services and universal pre-kindergarten included in Democrats’ Build Back Better bill would also provide significant individual and social benefits. The proposed program would pay money to both service providers and directly to parents to expand child care options and make it more affordable for families. Although the analysis doesn’t dig into the cost-benefit tradeoff, it does conclude that improved child care would provide billions in benefits to families, businesses and communities.

According to the analysis, the proposed child care plan would increase overall economic output by about $48 billion as more parents are freed up to return to work; boost business and government tax revenue by $60 billion as disruptions caused by child care problems decrease; and provide a roughly $30 billion increase in the economy as child care services and employment expand.

"The child care and [universal pre-kindergarten] policies being considered in Congress will support children’s healthy development, family economic security, and gender and racial equity," say authors Julie Kashen, Julie Cai, Hayley Brown and Shawn Fremstad. "This report shows that they are also essential to helping state economies grow and prosper."

White House Warns New Funding Needed for Booster Shots, Testing

As Congress considers how to provide billions of dollars in additional coronavirus funding, the Biden administration is warning that it doesn’t have the money to buy another round of Covid vaccines for all Americans if needed.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday that he is exploring possible ways to cover the cost of additional pandemic funding with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) and other Republicans. "We are trying to get COVID relief. I'm working with Senator Romney and other Republicans in good faith to find some pay-fors that are acceptable to Democrats and Republicans in the House and the Senate. We hope to get it done," Schumer told reporters.

Congressional leaders had agreed earlier this month to include $15.6 billion for vaccines, treatments and testing as part of a $1.5 trillion omnibus annual spending package, but they were forced to drop the measure from the larger package after a number of Democrats objected to the planned repurposing of relief money previously allocated to states. That shifting of funds was part of a compromise worked out by negotiators in response to GOP demands that any pandemic aid be fully offset.

The new round of Covid money has been stalled since then, despite Biden administration warnings that a lack of funds could seriously hamper pandemic preparedness. Several top Republicans are calling for a more detailed accounting of previous funding and supply levels. Democrats need the support of at least 10 Republican senators to advance any new funding plan through the Senate.

"There's plenty of unspent money. It's a question of priorities," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday. "The money is there. It should be reprogrammed. That's the way forward."

As talks continue in Congress — and with a new version of the omicron variant of the virus now causing a surge of cases in Europe — White House officials say that the administration lacks the fund to buy another round of Covid vaccine shots for the entire population.

"Right now, we don’t have enough money for fourth doses, if they’re called for," White House coronavirus coordinator Jeff Zients said Monday on the podcast "In The Bubble With Andy Slavitt," The Washington Post reports. "We don’t have the funding, if we were to need a variant-specific vaccine in the future."

The federal government has enough doses to cover a fourth shot for seniors and initial doses for children under age 5, if approved by regulators, the Post says, citing administration officials. An analysis by the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation reportedly determined that the administration would need to buy about 750 million more vaccine doses to ensure that every American could get a fourth shot if needed. But the administration says it cannot plane new orders to cover other age groups without more funding, leaving open the possibility that other countries could move ahead of the United States.

Officials also warn that, without new funding to ensure production of Covid-19 tests continues, the country could again face a shortage of tests as manufacturers cut their output in the face of declining demand. "If we get to a point where companies really are turning off lines or laying off people — are not making investments in the Covid test market — and we have another surge, then we will not be ready to go," Tom Inglesby, White House senior adviser for Covid response, told Politico. "We will be in a situation that is potentially much worse than what we had with Omicron."

The bottom line: Experts warn that the country may be repeating mistakes from earlier in the pandemic by not preparing for another potential wave of infections ahead of time. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told Politico that as the country dials back on measures like mask mandates it needs to stay vigilant in tracking of new Covid variants and outbreaks. "I am much more worried about our surveillance than I’ve ever been," Nuzzo said. "We’re at this point where the numbers get smaller, you need a brighter light to shine to spot problems before they become huge."

The Military Aid the US Is Giving to Ukraine

The U.S. has pledged to provide about $2 billion in military aid to help that country defend itself against the brutal invasion by Russian forces. Politico’s Joseph Gedeon provides a rundown Tuesday on the aid being provided by more than 25 countries, including rocket launchers from Canada, anti-tank weapons from Sweden and armored cars from the United Kingdom.

Here’s Gedeon’s breakdown of the aid being sent by the U.S. as of today’s date:

• 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems,

• 4,600 Javelin anti-tank missiles,

• five Mi-17 helicopters,

• three patrol boats,

• four counter-artillery and counter-drone tracking radars,

• 2,000 light anti-armor weapons,

• 300 grenade launchers and ammunition,

• 600 shotguns,

• 600 machine guns,

• 5,000 rifles,

• 1,000 pistols,

• 25,000 sets of body armor,

• 25,000 helmets,

• nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition,

• more than 1 million grenade, mortar and artillery rounds,

• 70 Humvees and other vehicles,

• 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems,

• 100 Switchblade drones.

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