How the US Could Save 160,000 Lives This Fall

The Commonwealth Fund
By Yuval Rosenberg

Happy Tuesday! Here’s what’s going on while we
ponder the
future of Choco Tacos and peruse former President
Barack Obama’s almost too perfect summer
playlist.

Covid Booster Campaign Could Save 160,000 Lives This Fall:
Report

With the latest variants of Covid-19 spreading rapidly and
another surge of cases expected as the weather cools in the months
ahead, a
new study from The Commonwealth Fund finds
that an aggressive campaign to deliver more booster shots could
save 160,000 lives this fall.

About 67% of Americans are currently vaccinated, and
booster shots are available for anyone over the age of 5, but less
than half of all vaccinated people have received boosters, which
have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of Covid
cases. Both booster and vaccination rates have steadily declined
over the last few months.

To see how effective a public health campaign would be,
researchers modeled three different scenarios for booster
deliveries: continue at the present rate, increase the rate to that
achieved during a recent influenza shot campaign, or achieve an 80%
booster rate for the population over the age of 5.

The researchers found that under the most ambitious
scenario, the country would experience 160,000 fewer deaths, as
well as 1.7 million fewer hospitalizations. The health care system
would also save $109 billion in direct medical costs by the spring
of 2023.

Yes, but: While an aggressive booster campaign
makes sense from both public health and fiscal perspectives, it
faces an uphill battle. For one thing, it seems that many Americans
have given up on the battle against Covid. For another, Congress
has refused to provide additional funding for efforts to combat the
latest variants.

The big takeaway: "The continued absence of new
federal funding for COVID-19 vaccination will limit efforts to
increase booster vaccination coverage and could lead to thousands
of avoidable hospitalizations and deaths," the report says in
conclusion.

Quote of the Day

"This is a very big deal, and if Democrats had tried to just
do this, it would be looked at as an enormous achievement. Because
it was tied in with other things that aren’t going to be included,
a lot of people look at what’s not in it, versus what this achieves
and what it does for people."

– Phil Schiliro, who served as head of legislative affairs
for President Barack Obama, as quoted by
The Washington Post on Democrats’ latest budget
reconciliation bill, which is focused on health care and leaves out
the climate, social spending and tax provisions included in earlier
versions of the legislation.

Column of the Day: Democrats’ Must Close the Medicaid Coverage
Gap

The United States is on the verge of "a monumental health-care
milestone,"
writes Washington Post columnist Catherine
Rampell: we are close to ensuring "virtually universal eligibility
for health coverage, which all other rich countries already
guarantee."

Rampell argues that Democrats have a chance — maybe their last
one for a while — to finally fix the
coverage gap resulting from states that have
chosen not to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. The
gap has left some 2.2 million Americans uninsured because their
income is too high to meet their state’s eligibility rules for
Medicaid but too low to receive tax credits through the ACA
marketplace.

Democrats’ budget reconciliation bill is reportedly set to
include provisions aimed at lowering prescription drug prices and
extending increased subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans. But
Rampell says Democrats should also push to address the Medicaid
coverage gap — for reasons both political and moral.

"Relative to those other health proposals, plugging the Medicaid
coverage gap has not exactly been a Democratic priority," she
writes. "After all, the vast majority of those affected live in red
states and are not represented by Democratic senators. But
Democratic politicians have a duty to make sure these people
finally get health insurance and the better outcomes that go with
it."


Read the full column at The Washington Post.

Survey of the Day: More Recession Predictions

Money managers, analysts and economists
surveyed by CNBC think the Federal Reserve’s
interest rate hikes are likely to lead to a recession. Of the 30
such experts in CNBC’s survey, nearly two-thirds said the Fed would
tip the economy into recession, though most expect any downturn to
be mild.

"A path to a soft landing certainly exists, but it’s narrow,
hidden, and very hard to find,″ wrote Roberto Perli, head of global
policy research at Piper Sandler. "In fact, some indicators suggest
the U.S. economy may either already be in recession or close to
it."

As it seeks to rein in inflation, the Fed is expected to
announce another 75 basis point interest rate hike tomorrow.

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