
Good Wednesday evening.
Democrats today celebrated Sen. Raphael Warnock’s victory in Georgia’s Senate runoff, the final midterm contest of 2022. While the win gives Democrats an outright majority in the Senate and thus has some significant implications for how the chamber — and the Biden administration — will function over the next two years, its repercussions for economic and fiscal policy may be more limited. Goldman Sachs analysts note that essentially all legislative action next year will require 60 votes to clear the Senate, including raising the debt limit. “Bipartisan support will be necessary to raise the limit next year, although it will likely be difficult to achieve given the political environment,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, “and while modest fiscal reforms may be included, we don’t expect substantial spending cuts.”
Here's what else we’re watching while wondering if Aaron Judge’s reported 9-year, $360 million deal to stay with the Yankees will result in one or more World Series titles.
What’s in the $858 Billion NDAA for 2023
After months of negotiations, lawmakers on Tuesday evening released the text of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which would support $857.9 billion in defense spending in fiscal year 2023. The House is expected to vote on the bill as soon as Wednesday evening, with the Senate following suit early next week.
The 2023 NDAA includes $816.7 billion for the Department of Defense, a roughly $45 billion increase over the amount requested by President Joe Biden earlier this year — an increase intended in large part to address the effects of inflation on the Pentagon budget. It would also provide $30.3 billion for national security programs at the Department of Energy. Together, those two items produce a topline figure of roughly $847 billion for the NDAA. Additionally, lawmakers plan to provide $10.6 billion for defense-related projects that fall outside the scope of the NDAA, producing an overall topline for national defense of roughly $858 billion.
Here are some notable highlights from the 4,408-page bill, dubbed the James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, drawn from the more easily digested 18-page executive summary:
* The defense budget will be 8% larger in 2023 than in 2022.
* Over the White House’s objections, the Covid-19 vaccine mandate for military personnel will be repealed 30 days after the bill is signed into law.
* Active-duty personnel will receive a 4.6% pay raise, which Military.com says is the largest pay hike in 20 years, even if it falls short of a roughly 7% inflation rate.
* Ukraine will receive $800 million in additional military assistance.
* Taiwan may receive up to $10 billion in military aid over 10 years, and the Pentagon is tasked with producing a report on China’s strategy for the use of force against the island nation. (DefenseOne reports that Taiwan was the most frequently cited foreign nation in the bill, with 438 mentions, far more than Russia with 237 mentions or Ukraine with 159.)
* The Navy will receive $32 billion for new ships, including three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and two Virginia-class submarines.
* The Pentagon is authorized to purchase 36 more F-35 stealth jets, across three variants.
* The Air Force is authorized to start retiring the A-10 Warthog.
The bottom line: Congress looks ready to pass one of the largest defense authorization bills in U.S. history. It’s worth noting, though, that while the NDAA authorizes defense spending for a given year, Congress still needs to provide the funds through an appropriations bill — a process that is currently bogged down in Washington.
Quote of the Day: White House Says Congress Is Making a Mistake
“We continue to believe that repealing the vaccine mandate is a mistake.”
– White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, reiterating Wednesday that the administration opposes the repeal of the Pentagon’s military Covid-19 vaccine mandate as part of the annual defense authorization bill. “Making sure our troops are ready to defend this country and prepared to do so, that remains the president’s priority and the vaccine requirement for Covid does just that,” Kirby said. He added a dig at GOP lawmakers, who have pushed for an end to the mandate: “Republicans in Congress have obviously decided that they’d rather fight against the health and well-being of those troops, rather than protecting them.”
Republicans have argued that the mandate hurts military recruitment, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reportedly said this week that the military has no data to support such claims. Kirby told reporters that more than 99% of active duty troops have gotten at least one Covid shot. Defense Department data cited by Reuters show that 3,717 Marines, 1,816 soldiers and 2,064 sailors have been discharged for refusing to get vaccinated. The bill would require a report on the question of reinstating those troops.
The White House has not indicated whether President Biden might veto the NDAA over the inclusion of the mandate repeal.
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News
- New NDAA Advocates Bulkier National Defense Budget – Roll Call
- Manchin Pitches Permitting Reform as NDAA Amendment – The Hill
- Democrats Ditch Manchin’s ‘Dirty Deal’ After Opposition From Climate Activists – The Guardian
- Schumer Flexes Democrats’ New Subpoena Power in Warning to CEOs – Bloomberg
- Will Congress Steal Christmas? – Politico
- Trump Administration Veteran Shops Budget Plan With Deep Cuts – Roll Call
- Bruising Stock Reversal Shows How Fed’s Pivot May Come Too Late – Bloomberg
- Economists: A US Housing Recession Has Already Arrived – The Hill
- Americans' Pandemic-Era Cash Pile Is Shrinking – Axios
- Pentagon’s Latest Ukraine Contracts Tally Jumps by $2 Billion – Bloomberg
- Energy Department Rule Would Cut Government Building Emissions 90 Percent – The Hill
- Germany Arrests 25 Suspected of Planning to Overthrow Government – New York Times
Views and Analysis
- A Standoff Is Coming in 2023 — and It’s Over the National Debt – Nancy Cook, Erik Wasson and Christopher Condon, Bloomberg
- Is the NDAA a ‘Victory for Kevin McCarthy’? – Connor O’Brien et al, Politico
- Four Ways Warnock’s Win Helps Biden – Brett Samuels, The Hill
- Why Warnock’s Win in Georgia Will Change the Senate Next Year – Roll Call
- Republicans Haven’t Solved Their Herschel Walker Problem – Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg
- Facing a Divided Congress, Biden Should Dust Off a Powerful but Simple Tool – Jane Harman, Washington Post
- Sorry, USA, $40 Billion Won’t Buy Chip Independence – Tim Culpan, Bloomberg
- The Future Depends on Chips. Is the U.S. Ready? – Washington Post Editorial Board
- Mass Long-Covid Disability Threatens the Economy – Kathryn A. Edwards, Bloomberg
- Med Schools Should De-Emphasize Standardized Admissions Tests – Alessandro Hammond and Cameron Sabet, Washington Post