It’s Thursday, and things are still a mess.
The White House said today that the number of Americans known to have been killed in the terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel has climbed to at least 27, and 14 remain unaccounted for, though it’s not clear how many are being held hostage. And we still don’t have a speaker of the House, as Rep. Steve Scalise, the Republican nominee for the job, faces growing opposition from his conference as he tries to round up the floor votes he’d need.
Chaos Reigns as Scalise Struggles to Win Support for Speaker Bid
Majority Leader Steve Scalise reportedly faces unyielding opposition from some members of his Republican conference as he scrambles to save his bid to be the next speaker of the House. As the fight over House GOP leadership drags on, the chamber remains paralyzed — and the days keep ticking down toward a November 17 deadline to avoid a government shutdown.
House Republicans met for more than two hours Thursday, but Scalise failed to win over the holdouts he’d need to win the gavel. He can only afford to lose four GOP votes, but some 20 Republicans reportedly won’t support him, resulting in a deadlock with no clear path forward.
“Several Republicans described Thursday’s meeting as a venting session that wasn’t terribly productive,” CNN reported. “Many said it didn’t feel like anyone could actually get to the 217 votes needed.”
What’s next: As Scalise continues his seemingly doomed efforts to win over holdouts, some Republicans are also reportedly considering other options, including expanding the powers of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry or working with Democrats. It’s not clear what would happen next if Scalise’s bid collapses — or whether any Republican could get the votes needed. “Members joke Jesus couldn't get the 217 votes to be their speaker,” CNN’s Lauren Fox posted on X. “The amount of shrug emojis I've gotten from sources when asking what happens next? Too many to count.”
Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment Will Be 3.2%
The Social Security Administration announced on Thursday that benefits will increase 3.2% next year.
The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will affect more than 71 million people starting in January 2024, with retirement benefits increasing by more than $50 per month on average. About 66 million people receive retirement benefits through Social Security, while 7.5 million receive benefits called Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, with some overlap between the two groups.
In addition to the boost in benefits, the maximum income subject to Social Security taxes will also rise next year, increasing to $168,600 from $160,200.
The 2024 benefit bump is less than half the 8.7% increase seen in 2023, reflecting the easing of inflation over the last year, but it’s still higher than the 2.6% average annual increase over the 20 years.
Still, despite the higher-than-average increases over the last few inflationary years, some advocates say it’s not enough. Mary Johnson, an analyst at the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group that seeks to protect programs for the elderly, told CBS News that inflation has eaten away at the value of benefits, even after the adjustments. “What we are hearing from our surveys is the household budgets went up by more than the amount of their COLA — that is what is worrying people today,” she said. “We still have inflation with us.”
Separately, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced price increases for Medicare coverage in 2024, the cost of which is typically deducted from Social Security benefits. The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B enrollees will be $174.70 next year, up from $164.90 in 2023. The annual deductible will rise to $240, up from $226.
Mixed Signals on Inflation in September
The rate of inflation eased a bit in September, as prices rose 0.4% from the previous month, down from the 0.6% rate recorded the month before, according to government data released Thursday. On an annual basis, however, the rate of inflation was unchanged, with September’s year-over-year rate holding steady at 3.7%, the same as in August.
The core inflation rate — a measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve that strips out volatile food and fuel prices — also told a mixed story. Core prices rose 0.3% in September, the same as in August. On an annual basis, though, core prices rose 4.1%, easing slightly from the 4.3% rate recorded the month before.
Overall, the inflation numbers are “a mixed bag,” Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, told the Associated Press. “It still suggests that we have exited the higher inflation regime of the pandemic, but we’re still elevated.”
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said the major drivers of inflation in September were energy and housing costs. “Both illustrate the difficulties in restoring price stability, and given growing risks to oil prices linked to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, that challenge has only grown,” he wrote.
At the same time, those sources of inflation are slowing down in the most recent data, suggesting that inflation will continue to fall along a bumpy path in the coming months.
The latest inflation data isn’t expected to alter the Fed’s campaign of anti-inflationary tightening, and most analysts expect the central bank to hold steady on interest rates at its next meeting, even as it continues to remain vigilant for any signs of backsliding.
“The Fed can for sure claim progress on inflation,” Lara Rhame, chief U.S. economist at FS Investments, told The Wall Street Journal. “But they definitely can’t claim victory.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday that economic conditions are still moving in the right direction as the central bank pursues its goal of 2% inflation. “Financial markets are tightening up, and they are going to do some of the work for us,” he said. “We’re in this position where we kind of watch and see what happens.”
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Fiscal News Roundup
- GOP Opposition Hardens Against Scalise, Leaving Speaker Bid in Peril – CNN
- Hard-Line Republicans Won’t Back Scalise for Speaker and Frustration Grows as the House Sits Idle – Associated Press
- GOP Says Time Is Running Out for Scalise to Lock Down the Speakership – Politico
- Scalise Bid for Speaker Meets Resistance From Web of G.O.P. Factions – New York Times
- ‘Big Hill’: McCarthy Shades Longtime Rival Scalise’s Speakership Chances – Politico
- With Support for Scalise in Limbo, Some Republicans Look for Alternatives – Washington Post
- Centrist Republican Pushes Effort to Temporarily Grant More Powers to Acting House Speaker – Washington Post
- US Inflation Eased Slightly Last Month as Price Increases Extend Slow Descent – Associated Press
- US Jobless Claims Remain at Historically Low 209,000, a Sign of Continuing Labor Market Strength – Associated Press
- Social Security Payments to Increase by 3.2 Percent as Inflation Cools – Washington Post
- U.S., Qatar Agree to Stop Iran From Tapping $6 Billion Fund After Hamas Attack – Washington Post
- The US Is Moving Quickly to Boost Israel’s Military. A Look at What Assistance It’s Providing – Associated Press
Views and Analysis
- Chaos in House GOP Intensifies With Scalise’s Speakership Bid in Peril – Stephen Collinson, CNN
- Steve Scalise Can Avoid Repeating Kevin McCarthy’s Mistakes – Washington Post Editorial Board
- 16 Republican Holdouts on Scalise for Speaker, Parsed – Aaron Blake, Washington Post
- Newt Gingrich Called Them ‘Cannibals.’ Now They Decide Who Gets to Be Speaker of the House – Nicole Hemmer, New York Times
- Getting to 2% Inflation Won’t Be Easy. This Is What Will Need to Happen, and It Might Not Be Pretty – Jeff Cox, CNBC
- Hurting From Rate Hikes? The Fed Looks as If It’s Finally Done – Conor Sen, Bloomberg
- The Fed’s Latest Inflation Risk: War – Victoria Guida, Politico
- What I’ve Learned From Watching Powell’s Inflation Fight – Jonathan Levin, Bloomberg
- Investing in Disinvested America – Harold Meyerson, American Prospect
- Can Biden’s Economic Policies Help Those Left Behind? – Claudia Sahm, Bloomberg