Happy Monday! We’re a week away from Christmas and just four weeks from the Iowa caucuses.
‘We Cannot Afford to Get This Wrong’: Border-Ukraine Talks Still Going
Negotiators working on a deal combining border policy changes with aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan have made progress, but not enough to suggest that the legislation might be passed before the end of the year.
The White House and a trio of Senate negotiators continue their talks as they try to reach a deal on a $110 billion national security supplemental spending bill that includes border reforms. Senate leaders of both parties said Monday that intensive weekend negotiations had resulted in progress but that much work remained.
"While the job is not finished, I’m confident we’re headed in the right direction," Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in remarks on the Senate floor. "Finding a middle ground is exceptionally hard, and both sides must accept they will have to make concessions and it’s going to take some more time to get it done. But we must succeed."
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell insisted that Republicans would need to see the full details of any deal before voting on it. "There are a number of significant issues our colleagues are still working to resolve," he said. "Our colleagues at the negotiating table are clear-eyed about the fact that getting this agreement right and producing legislative text is going to require some time."
McConnell added that Republican negotiators are committed to continuing to make progress "over the coming week and beyond." But he emphasized the need to proceed carefully and review any deal. "There is simply no room for falling short here," he said. "We cannot afford to get this wrong."
What’s next: Lawmakers reportedly have some significant issues to resolve and challenges in doing so in a way that can pass both chambers of Congress. "We do need to be aware of the fact that this is not just an exercise in the Senate," Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told "Fox News Sunday." "It’s not just the Senate and the president agreeing to something. It’s something that can actually pass the House and be signed into law." And lawmakers on the left and right have already expressed concern about the direction of the talks. Fifteen Senate Republicans on Sunday urged their party leaders to hold a special meeting on January 8 at the earliest to lay out the details of the negotiations, which they called "rushed and secret."
The bottom line: Any vote on an agreement is likely going to have to wait until mid-January, adding to what’s already looking like a very busy month since the House isn’t scheduled to return until January 9 and some government funding expires on January 19.
US Will Run Out of Ukraine Aid by December 30, White House Warns
The Biden administration said Monday that it plans to release one final package of military aid for Ukraine before the end of the year and warned that it could be the last until Congress provides more funding.
President Joe Biden has requested roughly $61 billion in new military assistance for Ukraine as it continues its war with Russia, but as we noted above, that aid package has become entwined with a contentious partisan dispute over immigration policy, leaving the administration with only the dwindling amount of aid Congress had previously approved.
Michael McCord, the comptroller of the Department of Defense, informed congressional leaders last week that it plans to transfer $1.07 billion to its accounts to replenish items sent to Ukraine from Pentagon stocks, as well as to reimburse the U.S. for defense services provided. The transfer is scheduled to occur by December 30.
"Once these funds are obligated, the department will have exhausted the funding available to us for security assistance to Ukraine," McCord wrote.
White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday about the exhaustion of the replenishment funds and called on lawmakers to pass the aid package. "Ukraine still needs our help, and it’s well past time for Congress to act and stand up for freedom and democracy and our own national security interests, which are very much at play," he said.
The Pentagon still has $4.4 billion in presidential drawdown authority for Ukraine, which enables it to send weapons and materials directly from U.S. stocks, Politico reports. But the drawdowns are reportedly limited by the amount of replenishment authority available, which will be exhausted by the end of the month.
Tables of the Day
In a social media thread, Michael Thorning of the Bipartisan Policy Center shared some "fun facts" about the first year of the 118th Congress provided by the House Majority Leader's office.
Number of the Day: 60%
Student loan payments resumed in October following a three-year pause during the pandemic, affecting 28 million borrowers. However, the Department of Education reports that just 60% of the 22 million borrowers who had payments due in October had made payments by mid-November.
Undersecretary of Education James Kvaal said that 4 million of those borrowers were facing their first payments, and millions more had stopped making payments before the pandemic. "While most borrowers have already made their first payment, others will need more time," he said in a blog post. "Some are confused or overwhelmed about their options."
To provide a cushion for borrowers, the Biden administration has declared an "on-ramp period" of 12 months, during which those who fail to make their payments will be protected against default. There are concerns, however, that some borrowers don’t realize that they will pay a financial price if they don’t start paying. Scott Buchanan of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance told CNBC that, except for the protection from default, student loans have started operating as they did before the pandemic. "Interest is accruing now," he said.
Fiscal News Roundup
- Hopes for Quick Passage of Ukraine Aid Bill Dim as Border Talks Drag On – New York Times
- Senators Get More Impatient With ‘Secret’ Border-Ukraine Talks – Politico
- Congress Unlikely to Finish Work on Ukraine, Border Deal This Year – Politico
- Biden Faces Battle With Democratic Base Over Israel, Ukraine, Border – The Hill
- Pentagon Warns Ukraine Military Aid Fund to Run Out Dec. 30 – Bloomberg
- White House Planning 1 More Ukraine Aid Package Before Year’s End – The Hill
- Biden Administration Pleads With States After Millions of Kids Lose Medicaid Coverage – Politico
- HHS Tells States to Do More to Protect Kids After Millions Lose Medicaid Coverage – The Hill
- U.S. Fines Southwest Airlines $140 Million for Holiday Meltdown – New York Times
- Only 60% of Student Loan Borrowers Made Payments When Bills Restarted – CNBC
- Biden’s Approval Rating Hits New Low on Economic Worries, Poll Shows – Bloomberg
- Biden Said to Be Increasingly Frustrated by Dismal Poll Numbers – Washington Post
Views and Analysis
- Everyone Expected a Recession. The Fed and White House Found a Way Out – Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein, Washington Post
- Wall Street’s ‘Bond Vigilantes’ Are at Battle as U.S. Debt Soars – Talmon Joseph Smith, New York Times
- So It’s Come to This: We Might Have to Worry About the Deficit – Emily Stewart, Vox
- McCarthy’s Exit Changes Little: House Republicans Are Still Lost – Paul Kane, Washington Post
- Ukraine Shouldn’t Have to Pay the Price of the GOP’s Wedge Politics – E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post
- Why Are the Republicans Against Funding Ukraine? – David Ignatius, Washington Post
- A Historian’s Advice to the Democrats Trying to Build Stuff – Rachel M. Cohen, Vox
- Baseball Star Shohei Ohtani's New Contract Is a Massive Tax Avoidance Scheme. Nice! – Eric Boehm, Reason
- Brace Yourself. The Elections of 2024 Could Shock the World – David A. Andelman, CNN