A Big Week for Republicans’ ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill

Speaker Mike Johnson
Reuters
By Yuval Rosenberg

Happy Monday! Here's what we're watching while waiting to see which looks from the Met Gala, fashion's biggest night, inspire us the most. (No, that's a joke ... unless some star wears a plaid button-down shirt.)

A Big Week for Republicans' 'Big, Beautiful' Bill

This could be a pivotal week for Republicans' push to finalize their massive package of tax breaks and spending cuts.

Seven House committees have passed their portions of the plan. Four committees have yet to do so. Three of those likely still face significant challenges ahead: The Ways and Means Committee, which will decide on tax cuts; the Energy and Commerce Committee, where the size and scope of Medicaid cuts will be determined; and the Agriculture Committee, which will determine cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, more commonly known as food stamps.

Those three committees delayed their markups of reconciliation legislation until next week at the earliest while negotiations continue over the details of their plans. Republicans reportedly have a slew of meetings planned for this week to work toward resolving lingering divisions. House Speaker Mike Johnson set a goal of passing the budget reconciliation bill by Memorial Day, which is three weeks away. Johnson reportedly acknowledged Monday that Republicans might need a little extra time.

The path to the finish line won't be an easy one. Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith acknowledged "some bumps in the road" in an interview with Fox News yesterday. "Failure is simply not an option," he told Fox News's Shannon Bream. "Will it be bumpy, Shannon? It absolutely is. This is the House of Representatives, but will we get the job done? We absolutely will. Failure's not an option."

What happens this week could go a long way to determining whether that's true.

Trump Orders 100% Tariff on Foreign Movies, but Details Are Hazy

In a post published on his social media platform Sunday evening, President Donald Trump announced that he plans to impose a 100% tariff on movies that are produced overseas.

The president said the U.S. film industry is "DYING a very fast death" due to competition from foreign nations, which are purportedly drawing American filmmakers and studios to their shores, creating a "National Security threat" due to "messaging and propaganda." Accordingly, the president authorized the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative to institute a 100% tariff on movies "produced in Foreign Lands."

"WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!" Trump added.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledged Trump's decree, saying on social media, "We're on it."

How will it work? The White House provided no details on how the U.S. could impose a new tariff on foreign films, so it's unclear whether the new tax would apply to all imported media or just major films shown in theaters, or something else entirely. The status of films that are handled by U.S producers but shot in other countries is also unknown.

Films are typically seen as intellectual property, which is classified as a service, and the new tariff could signal a new level of conflict in Trump's burgeoning trade war.

"If Trump is serious about tariffs on movies, it's a very dangerous escalation," said University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers. "Tariffs have not traditionally been applied to services, and the United States is a massive net exporter of services. We would be extremely vulnerable to any service-based retaliation."

In the film business, the U.S. runs a significant surplus, Wolfers noted, with the surplus topping $15 billion in 2023.

Hollywood concerned: Over the weekend, the president reportedly met with actor John Voight, one of his three "special ambassadors" to Hollywood, and their conversation may have played a role in Trump's tariff announcement on Sunday. CNN reports that Voight pitched Trump on new tax incentives for the industry, but not tariffs.

The U.S. film industry has seen a significant decline in domestic production, driven in part by studios pursuing cheaper labor in places like Canada and Ireland, and some in the industry are concerned about the decline of productive capacity.

Even so, Trump's tariff idea was not immediately embraced in Hollywood. An industry insider told CNN that it could be disastrous and may not even be legal. "On first blush, it's shocking and would represent a virtually complete halt of production," the insider said. "But in reality, he has no jurisdiction to do this and it's too complex to enforce."

White House wavering? A White House spokesperson said that the administration is still reviewing the situation. "Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump's directive to safeguard our country's national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again," spokesperson Kush Desai said.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Monday afternoon, Trump said he would consult with U.S. film executives before reaching any final decisions.

Trump Wants to Reopen Alcatraz

President Trump called for the reopening of Alcatraz, a small federal prison on an island near San Francisco, to serve as a symbol of "Law, Order, and JUSTICE."

"When we were a more serious Nation, in times past, we did not hesitate to lock up the most dangerous criminals, and keep them far away from anyone they could harm," the president wrote on his social media platform Sunday. "That is why, today, I am directing the Bureau of Prisons, together with the Department of Justice, FBI, and Homeland Security, to reopen a substantially enlarged and rebuilt ALCATRAZ, to house America's most ruthless and violent Offenders."

While there are no estimates yet of the cost of reopening the facility, it's worth noting that one of the main reasons the prison was closed by Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy in 1963 is that the facility was in poor condition and far more expensive to operate than prisons on the mainland.

"Alcatraz was nearly three times more expensive to operate than any other Federal prison," the Bureau of Prisons website says. "The major expense was caused by the physical isolation of the island - the exact reason islands have been used as prisons throughout history. This isolation meant that everything (food, supplies, water, fuel...) had to be brought to Alcatraz by boat."

Number of the Day: $1,000

The Trump administration today announced what it described as "a historic opportunity" for undocumented immigrants: It is offering a cash stipend of $1,000 and a flight home for anyone willing to voluntarily leave the United States. Immigrants who want to take the offer can use the CBP Home app to self-deport.

"Even with the cost of the stipend, it is projected that the use of CBP Home will decrease the costs of a deportation by around 70 percent," the Department of Homeland Security said in a press release. "Currently the average cost to arrest, detain, and remove an illegal alien is $17,121."

The administration says some migrants have already started accepting the offer, with one person receiving a ticket from Chicago to Honduras and other tickets booked for this week and next. The administration said last week that it had deported 139,000 people since President Trump's inauguration, but immigration experts questioned that number.

Quote of the Day

"I don't know."

− President Trump, responding to a question from Kristen Welker of NBC News on Sunday's "Meet the Press" about whether it is part of the president's job to uphold the Constitution.

During a lengthy, news-making interview, Trump was asked if everyone in the U.S., including noncitizens, deserves due process under the law. "I don't know," Trump said. "I'm not, I'm not a lawyer. I don't know."

Responding to Welker's statement, "Well, the Fifth Amendment says as much," Trump repeated, "I don't know."

Welker then asked, "don't you need to uphold the Constitution of the United States as president?" To which Trump replied: "I don't know."

Trump also pushed back on concerns about his tariffs and tried to deflect blame for the economy shrinking 0.3% in the first quarter. Asked about his ownership of economic conditions, he said: "I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he's done a terrible job."

Fiscal News Roundup

Views and Analysis