
Happy Tuesday! The White House today sent Congress a long-anticipated package of $9.4 billion in approved spending it wants to see clawed back, including cuts to the State Department, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the World Health Organization and other international aid programs. House Republican leaders reportedly plan a vote on the rescissions package next week.
Here's what else we're watching while marveling at the new portrait of President Donald Trump unveiled by the White House.
A 'Disgusting Abomination': Musk Blasts GOP Budget Bill
Well that didn't take long.
Elon Musk, freshly departed from the Trump administration, lashed out on Tuesday against the Republican tax and spending package now in the Senate, calling it a "disgusting abomination" and warning that it will "massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit."
In a series of posts on X, Musk amplified his recent criticism of the GOP bill, which he had previously said undermines the cost-cutting of his Department of Government Efficiency. "I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore," Musk wrote Tuesday afternoon. "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it."
Minutes later, he added: "It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to $2.5 trillion (!!!) and burden America citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt."
The bill, which squeaked through the House last month in a 215-214 vote, is likely to undergo changes in the Senate, where some Republicans are demanding steeper spending reductions while others have expressed concern about the Medicaid cuts it would require.
President Donald Trump on Monday evening urged Congress to send the bill to his desk by July 4 and called the legislation "a massive step to balancing our Budget" because of the spending cuts it includes, even as experts project that the package as passed by the House will add roughly $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
"The president already knows where Elon Musk stood on this bill," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at her press briefing Tuesday when asked about Musk's comments. "It doesn't change the president's opinion."
Leavitt also repeated criticisms of the Congressional Budget Office and its projections, claiming that the non-partisan scorekeeper has become "partisan and political." She said the White House was confident in its own economic analysis of the GOP bill. Leavitt and other administration officials have argued that the legislation will not add to the deficit, based on its spending cuts and rosy projections of increased economic growth.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has also insisted that the GOP bill will not add to the deficit, told reporters he was very disappointed and surprised by Musk's comments, especially after the two men had just discussed the legislation yesterday. "With all due respect, my friend Elon is terribly wrong about the one big, beautiful bill," Johnson said.
"It's not personal," Johnson added. "I just deeply regret that he's made this mistake."
Democrats, meanwhile, were all too happy to play up Musk's comments. "I agree with Elon Musk!" Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer gleefully told reporters, holding up a printout of Musk's social media posts. "Republicans should listen to him."
The bottom line: Musk's opinions aren't likely to sway senators now deciding what changes to make to the House-passed bill. "We're going to proceed, full speed ahead," Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters.
Trump Trade War Threatens US Growth: New Report
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development downgraded its growth projections for both the U.S. and the global economy Tuesday, citing the threat posed by President Trump's new tariff regime as the leading cause of the darkening outlook.
"Global economic prospects are weakening, with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts on growth," the OECD said. "Lower growth and less trade will hit incomes and slow job growth."
The intergovernmental organization, which has 38 member nations with relatively advanced economies, reduced its GDP growth estimate for the U.S. to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, assuming tariffs stay at mid-May levels. As recently as March, the OECD was projecting a 2.2% growth rate for the U.S. this year.
Globally, the OECD reduced its growth estimate from 3.1% to 2.9% in 2025, and from 3.0% to 2.9% in 2026. The most pronounced slowdowns are expected to be seen in the countries most directly affected by Trump's tariff policies: the U.S., Canada, Mexico and China, with Mexico growing just 0.4% this year. Other nations will see smaller drags on growth.
Inflation gets stickier: Even as they slow growth, the tariffs will put upward pressure on prices. The OECD now projects an average inflation rate in member nations of 4.2% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026. In December, those projections stood at 3.7% and 2.9%, respectively.
"For most countries, inflation will stay a bit higher for longer ... even though we do think that by the end of '26, they'll be closer to their targets," OECD Chief Economist Álvaro Santos Pereira told reporters Tuesday.
A growing chorus: Trump's tariffs have prompted other leading forecasters to reduce their economic growth estimates. The Federal Reserve cut its projection for growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, while Goldman Sachs reduced its growth projection from 2.2% to 1.7%.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told The Wall Street Journal that the OECD downgrade "adds more credibility to the private-sector view that the U.S. economy will feel a cold wind until we start getting clarity on the trade and tax environment that businesses and households will face."
Knightley added that the OECD report supports the view that "while Donald Trump's policies may generate some positives for the U.S. economy over time, there will be a tricky and potentially quite painful transition period for parts of the economy."
The bottom line: The downgrades from the OECD reflect the strains in the global economy produced by Trump's trade war, and much depends on how the battle over tariffs plays out. If Trump pulls back and leaves only modest tariff increases in place, the outlook could improve considerably. But if Trump shifts the trade war into a higher gear, the results could be worse, featuring an unsteady mix of stagnating growth and inflationary pressure that ripples through the U.S. and global economies.
Trump Wants to Slash 107,000 Federal Jobs Next Year
President Trump's 2026 budget request calls for the elimination of 107,000 jobs at non-defense federal agencies next year. If Congress enacts the request, the cuts would result in a 7% reduction in the non-defense federal force relative to 2025, according to Eric Katz of Government Executive.
The largest workforce reductions would occur in the Department of Education, where the staff would shrink by 38%. Significant cuts would also be rolled out in the Office of Personnel Management (-29%), NASA (-29%), Labor (-27%), Housing and Urban Development (-26%) and Agriculture (-22%).
Some departments would see entire offices all but eliminated. For example, as Katz notes, the Natural Resources Conservation Service of the Forest Service, which sits within the Department of Agriculture, would see nearly all its 4,000 employees fired, including most of the workers focused on forecasting snowpack and water supply.
The only agency that would see an increase in staff is the Department of Transportation, which would grow by 1% as a result of hiring by the Federal Aviation Administration.
The workforce reductions do not reflect the cuts that have already occurred or are planned for this year, nor does the budget request include any cuts in the Defense Department, where reductions of 60,000 are expected. As a result, the total federal job cuts recorded by the Trump administration in 2025 and 2026 could be considerably higher.
Op-Ed of the Day: This Fiscal Policy Isn't Normal
Adam Tooze, a Columbia University history professor who has gained a large following for his economic writing and podcast, argues in a guest essay for The New York Times that the fiscal risks the United States now faces are the result of a dramatic departure from historical norms and the "prudent fiscal rules" that advanced countries generally abided by until at least the 1970s.
The picture now is different, and Tooze argues that Republican politics - and tax cuts - are to blame:
"The real issue is politics. The market is waking up to the scale of Republican deficits - rising up to 7 percent of gross domestic product from under 6 percent; the party's complete refusal to consider serious measures to raise revenue; the state of denial, reminiscent of Saddam-era Baghdad, that pervades Trump administration communications around the issue; and what appears to be a concerted effort to dissuade investment of foreign money in America by depreciating the dollar. ...
"The United States is a rich economy with a good credit rating. It can bear large debts. And there are many things that would be worth greater U.S. borrowing - green investments, or a huge push on child care and human capital. But America's deficits aren't driven by an expansive view of future investments. They are driven by the unwillingness of the richest Americans, who pay by far the most tax, to pay even the modest levels that would be necessary to fund America's far-from-generous public sector. ...
"The inability of the American political class to develop decisive majorities for a coherent and strategic fiscal policy - whether orientated toward a major national investment program or a balanced budget - corrodes not just credit ratings but also democratic legitimacy. No taxation without representation has a corollary. What defines a civilized collective is its ability, through democratic means, to decide who pays for what."
Read the full piece at The New York Times.
Number of the Day: 2,262
In his first 132 days in office, President Trump posted to his Truth Social account 2,262 times, according to a Washington Post tally. Trump's social media activity more than triples the number of tweets he sent during the same period of his first term, the Post says. "The data portrays an influencer-in-chief whose reach has grown vastly larger than during his first term," the Post's Drew Harwell, Clara Ence Morse and Emily Davies write. "His prolific posts also allow him to communicate directly to his fans, without any filtering from media outlets."
Fiscal News Roundup
- White House Asks Congress to Codify DOGE Cuts to USAID and Public Broadcasting – NBC News
- House GOP Leaders Eye Next Week for Vote on Spending Cuts – Politico
- Musk's Latest Megabill Bombshell Exasperates GOP Lawmakers – Politico
- Senate Committees to Start Rolling Out Megabill Text as Soon as This Week – Politico
- Tillis Wants Major Changes to Trump's Tax Cut on Tips – Politico
- Greene Says She'll Oppose Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' if AI Provision Isn't Removed – The Hill
- Trump Amps Up Criticism of Rand Paul as Senator Resists Priority Bill – Washington Post
- Leavitt Repeats Unfounded Criticism of Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office – Washington Post
- The Latest GOP Push to Cut Waste and Spending: Work Requirements – Washington Post
- U.S. Scientists Warn That Trump's Cuts Will Set Off a Brain Drain – New York Times
- US Seeks Best Trade Offer From Countries This Week, White House Says – Reuters
- More Job Openings Point to Resilient Labor Market Despite Tariff Turmoil – Washington Post
- White House Proposes Shutting Down Chemical Safety Agency – Washington Post
- No Hurricane Season? Acting FEMA Chief's Remark Was a Joke, DHS Says – Washington Post
- Tulsa Announces Reparations for the 1921 'Black Wall Street' Massacre – Washington Post
Views and Analysis
- Ernst's 'We All Are Going to Die' Quip Underscores GOP's Medicaid Challenge – Patrick Svitek, Washington Post
- Republican Mega-Bill Charges Federal Workers for Basic Rights on the Job – David Dayen, American Prospect
- Want a Federal Job? Get Ready to Pledge Allegiance to Trump – Ed Kilgore, New York
- We Are Being Governed by the Trump Organization Inc. – Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times
- The Great Trump Riddle on China – Edward Luce, Financial Times
- Privatizing Speculative Gain, Socializing Risk – Robert Kuttner, American Prospect
- Records of Dead People Show How the Pro-Trump Spin Machine Keeps Going – Glenn Kessler, Washington Post
- We Are Witnessing the Suicide of a Superpower – Max Boot, Washington Post