Trump, GOP Leaders Fight to Win Over Holdouts on Megabill

Speaker Mike Johnson worked to sway GOP holdouts.
Reuters
By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey

Good evening! The House is in the middle of a megabill muddle. Dig in for details - and we promise: no more alliteration.

Trump and House Leaders Fight to Win Over GOP Holdouts on Megabill

President Donald Trump and House Republican leaders worked furiously on Wednesday to try to persuade holdouts to provide the necessary votes to pass the nearly 900-page package of tax and spending cuts sent over by the Senate yesterday. The package remains stalled in the House as negotiations continue and some "no" votes gradually move into the "yes" column, leaving open the possibility that Republicans may be able to pass the bill ahead of the July 4 deadline set by Trump, potentially as soon as tonight.

"Making progress. I mean, good conversations, and I think we can, I'm hopeful we can proceed tonight, get this done," Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters.

Procedural vote stalled: In an appearance on Steve Bannon's War Room podcast after the Senate vote on Tuesday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a MAGA Trump loyalist, warned that House Republicans didn't have the votes to pass the bill and called the process "a s-t show." That show continued Wednesday as House leaders pressed ahead with a series of procedural votes on the bill but were forced to hold open one of those votes for hours as they negotiated with holdouts - and waited for some members delayed by weather to arrive at the Capitol. A vote that began shortly after 2 p.m. ET was still open about five hours later.

Conservatives rail against the bill: The House Freedom Caucus circulated a three-page memo detailing more than a dozen criticisms of the Senate-passed bill. Their complaints included concerns about the deficit-raising effects of the legislation. "The bill violates the House framework of $1 of tax cuts for $1 of spending cuts (with 2.6% economic growth)," the memo says, adding, "This was not what [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune and Speaker Johnson promised."

The Senate version of the bill is projected to add roughly $4 trillion to deficits over 10 years, far exceeding the roughly $2.8 trillion that would be added by a version of the package that passed the House in May.

Discussions with hardliners reportedly focused on ways that the administration could implement the legislation to address the concerns they raised. White House Budget Director Russell Vought joined the talks in the Capitol on Wednesday afternoon, reportedly to address plans for implementing the legislation and discuss additional spending cuts. Those negotiations came after lawmakers also met at the White House with Trump and with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Director Mehmet Oz.

Some moderate Republicans have also raised concerns about the bill, primarily centered on steep cuts to Medicaid that they worry will hurt their constituents and prove costly for GOP candidates in 2026 elections.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana told reporters that GOP leaders were not considering making changes to the bill before the final vote. "It's not as easy as saying, 'Hey, I just want one more change,' because one more change could end up being what collapses the entire thing," Scalise said.

The bottom line: We told you after the Senate vote yesterday that the drama wasn't done...and it still isn't. The House "could be in for another all-nighter," Politico's Meredith Lee Hill reports. "House GOP leadership is optimistic they'll get the holdouts to flip in the coming hours - it's just a matter of when."

Trump Announces a Trade Deal as New Analysis Shows What Tariffs Would Cost Employers

President Trump announced Wednesday that he reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, ahead of a July 9 deadline that would have seen a 46% tariff imposed by the U.S. on all imports from the Asian manufacturing powerhouse.

The 46% tariff was announced on what Trump called "Liberation Day" in early April. It was put on hold for 90 days to allow time for negotiations, with a temporary 10% tariff in place in the meantime.

Trump said the U.S. would impose a 20% tariff on all imports from Vietnam, with a 40% import fee applied to goods that were determined to be transshipped from other countries using Vietnam as an intermediary. In return, Trump said Vietnam agreed to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. goods.

"In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff," Trump wrote on his social media platform.

Trump added that, in his view, American-made sport utility vehicles would be a good product for U.S. firms to sell in Vietnam. "It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam," he wrote.

A significant trade partner: Vietnam has become a major source of textiles and sportswear for the U.S. market and was the sixth-largest supplier of imports to the U.S. in 2024, exporting goods valued at $137 billion. U.S. exports to Vietnam are modest by comparison, totaling just $15 billion last year, resulting in a substantial trade deficit.

Economists note that per capita income in Vietnam is just $4,500 per year, with most workers typically earning less than $400 per month, seriously limiting the market for $60,000 American-made SUVs, as Trump suggested. Goods made in Vietnam and exported to the U.S. tend to be considerably cheaper, including sneakers made for Nike and pants produced for Gap. In recent discussions, Vietnamese officials have offered to increase their purchases of U.S. agricultural goods by as much $3 billion per year.

Broad terms, few details: No term sheet for the agreement has been released, and it appears that many details of the deal still need to be hammered out. The same is true of the trade agreement recently reached with the U.K.

One important issue still to be defined is what goods will fall under the transshipment tariff. Firms from other countries, most notably China, have used countries including Vietnam to ship goods to the U.S. in an attempt to avoid or reduce tariffs, and those will now face the higher 40% tariff rate. But the U.S. may also apply the higher rate to goods made in Vietnam that include a certain percentage of foreign raw materials and intermediate products. Those details still need to be clarified.

Another issue is whether the rates announced Wednesday come in addition to existing tariffs. If so, the total tariff on things such as Nike footwear could exceed 30%.

The high cost of tariffs: Although Trump and senior officials in his administration insist that foreign producers pay U.S.-imposed tariffs, virtually all economists agree that they are paid by U.S. importers, with a portion of the costs distributed one way or another across domestic firms and consumers, even if exporters swallow some of the costs as well. Trump maintained his position on the issue Wednesday, writing that "Vietnam will pay the United States a 20% Tariff" - a fundamental misinterpretation of how tariffs work.

A new analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute provides an estimate of how Trump's tariff plan could affect medium-sized companies in the U.S. According to the report, such firms - which employ about a third of all private-sector employees in the country - would face about $187 billion in new costs as a result of the full tariff plan announced by Trump in April. With adjustments for agreements reached since then, many of which remain tentative, the cost comes to about $82 billion.

As Josh Boak of the Associated Press notes, the report shows "clear trade-offs from Trump's import taxes, contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed."

Most analysts expect the tariffs to start registering in retail prices soon, with increases large enough to raise the inflation rate in the second half of the year.

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