Happy Thursday! Today, 9/25/2025, is the last “perfect square day” — in which the month, day and year are all square numbers — in most of our lifetimes. The next perfect square year won’t be until 2116. Who knew? But this Saturday, September 27, is also a cool mathematical date.
Here’s the more serious stuff you should know this evening.
White House Threatens Mass Firings if Government Shuts Down
The White House on Wednesday night raised the stakes in the ongoing clash over a possible government shutdown. In a memo to federal agencies, the White House Office of Management and Budget, led by Russell Vought, threatened another mass firing of federal employees if Congress allows government funding to lapse after September 30 — a significant departure from the procedures followed in recent shutdowns and a significant escalation of the potential risks involved in the current partisan showdown.
The memo, first reported by Politico, instructs agencies to prepare “reduction in force” plans for employees in programs, projects and activities that see a lapse in discretionary funding, don’t have alternative funding available and are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” The memo also notes that “many core Trump Administration priorities will continue uninterrupted” because of funding provided by the Republican reconciliation bill passed this summer.
Accusing Democrats of ‘insane demands’: The White House directive seeks to place the blame for any shutdown squarely on Democrats, who have rejected the Republican plan for a “clean” extension of funding through November 21. It notes that Congress has frequently passed continuing resolutions to extend federal funding in recent years. “Unfortunately, congressional Democrats are signaling that they intend to break this bipartisan trend and shut down the government in the coming days over a series of insane demands, including $1 trillion in new spending,” the memo says, adding, “With respect to those Federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded, such programs are no longer statutorily required to be carried out.”
Firings, not just furloughs: Recent government shutdowns have seen federal workers temporarily furloughed, not fired, and employees returned to their jobs, typically with back pay, after a deal was reached to end the shutdown and restore funding. The OMB memo indicates that Vought and the Trump administration will instead look to use a possible shutdown as an opportunity to continue their efforts to slash the federal workforce. Those past efforts have at times cut too deeply and required the government to hire back laid off workers — and they might again. “Once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their RIFs as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions,” the memo says.
Asked why his administration is threatening to lay off federal workers, Trump on Thursday deflected the blame. “This is all caused by the Democrats,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “They asked us to do something that’s totally unreasonable. They never change. They want to give money away to illegals, people that entered our country illegally. They want to give them massive federal money, and we don’t want to do that.”
Those remarks echoed comments from House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said in a social media post on Thursday that Democrats are demanding “free tax-payer funded health care for illegal aliens,” a somewhat misleading reference to Democratic demands to rollback Republican changes to Medicaid, including new measures to ensure that undocumented immigrants can’t enroll in public benefit programs.
“Democrats are holding the AMERICAN government HOSTAGE — in an attempt to give FREE health care to NONCITIZENS, which was just outlawed by Congress,” Johnson wrote. “This isn’t governing. It’s putting illegal aliens FIRST and Americans LAST.”
(On a related note, Politico pointed out this morning that Republican messaging on the shutdown has already shown fractures, with Trump, Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune all hammering different points, raising some concern among GOP members.)
Democrats dismiss the threat: While the White House threat was clearly meant to ratchet up the pressure on Democrats, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries insisted that they won’t be bullied into submission. Democratic leaders have demanded that any funding bill include concessions, most notably an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire at the end of the year and a rollback of $1 trillion in Republican cuts to Medicaid.
“This is an attempt at intimidation,” Schumer said in a statement. “Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one—not to govern, but to scare. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government. These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back.”
During a similar standoff in March, Schumer warned that a shutdown would empower Vought and the Trump administration to scale up their assault on the federal workforce by deciding which agencies continue operating and which government offices would be shuttered. Schumer has argued that this time is different because the Trump administration has demonstrated a willingness to pursue mass firings and withhold or cut funding in ways Democrats say are illegal. Schumer also argues that his party is more united now and the public perception of the administration has hardened.
In a post on X, Jeffries blasted Vought. “Listen Russ, you are a malignant political hack. We will not be intimidated by your threat to engage in mass firings,” Jeffries wrote. “Get lost.” In another post, he urged voters in Virginia, where many federal workers live, to take note of the White House stance. “Their goal is to ruin your life and punish hardworking families already struggling with Trump Tariffs and inflation,” he wrote. “Remember in November.”
‘Not bargaining chips’: The American Federation of Government Employees blasted the OMB memo, saying that “illegal mass firings” will add to the current chaos. “The truth is simple: Republicans cannot fund the government without Democratic votes. That means the only path forward is compromise,” AFGE National President Everett Kelley said in a statement. “Federal employees are not bargaining chips. They are veterans, caregivers, law enforcement officers, and neighbors who serve their country and fellow Americans every day. They deserve stability and respect, not pink slips and political games.”
The bottom line: A shutdown seems increasingly likely. “Both sides are almost incentivized for a shutdown,” analyst Chris Krueger of TD Cowen wrote in a note to clients on Thursday, pointing to the funding Republicans already secured in their big bill and the pressure on Democrats to look tough against Trump. “A shutdown could go for a while,” Krueger added, since the main catalyst for a resolution would be the November 1 start to open enrollment in Affordable Care Act plans. “And even that isn't really a 'hard' catalyst like the debt limit.”
Economic Growth Revised Upward for Q2
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8% clip in the second quarter this year, faster than originally thought, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
The department initially said GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. That estimate, released in July, was revised higher to 3.3% in August before being raised again today. The revisions show a significant bounce back from the first quarter, when GDP shrank 0.6% as U.S. businesses ramped up imports ahead of President Trump’s new tariff regime.
The stronger GDP growth was driven by an upward revision in consumer spending, which grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, better than the previous estimate of 1.6%.
What the experts are saying: Bret Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro, told CNN that the size of the revisions has been unusual, probably due to rapid changes in policy under Trump. “This year’s economic data — especially over the past few months — has been noisy, and economic policy uncertainty has remained elevated throughout 2025,” he said. “With so many moving parts in the GDP report, it’s not surprising that larger-than-expected revisions are showing up, particularly in a year marked by heightened volatility and mixed signals.”
Overall, the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than some analysts feared. “The U.S. consumer remained a lot stronger than many thought, even in the midst of a stock market sell-off and a lot of trade uncertainty,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote on social media.
This suggests that the economy could gather steam in the third quarter, and perhaps beyond. “The economy is clearly recovering from the shock of tariff implementation,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, per Bloomberg. “Accelerating growth should mean stronger job growth within the next few months.”
Healthcare Providers Could Lose $32 Billion if Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies Expire: Report
If the enhanced Obamacare tax credits at the center of the shutdown showdown are allowed to expire at the end of the year, healthcare providers could see a $32 billion loss in revenues in 2026, as well as a $7.7 billion increase in uncompensated care, according to a new study by researchers at the Urban Institute.
Those losses are the flip side of millions of people losing their health coverage. In an analysis published last week, the Urban Institute estimated that the expiration of the enhanced tax credits would result in 7.3 million fewer people receiving health coverage under the Affordable Care Act in 2026, with 4.8 million of them going uninsured.
The prospective revenue losses would be spread across all kinds of providers. Hospitals would lose $14.2 billion, office-based doctors $5.1 billion and drugmakers $5.8 billion. The jump in uncompensated care would be shared by providers, as well, with hospitals accounting for about $2.2 billion and doctors $1 billion worth of services that go unpaid.
“The negative effects of allowing these tax credits to expire couldn’t be more stark,” Katherine Hempstead, senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which funded the study, said in a statement. “Millions of people will lose coverage, and providers will face the one-two punch of losing revenue and increasing uncompensated care.”
Fiscal News Roundup
- White House Budget Office Threatens Mass Firings if Government Shuts Down – CNN
- Democrats Dig In on Shutdown After White House Layoff Threat – Politico
- ‘Get Lost’: Democrats Refuse to Back Down in Shutdown Standoff as the White House Threatens Mass Firings – Time
- The US Economy Grew at a 3.8% Rate in the Second Quarter, Significantly Stronger Than Previously Reported – CNN
- Trump Says Tariff Revenue Will Fund Relief for US Farmers – Bloomberg
- Trump’s Steel Tariffs Are Triggering Counterstrikes From US Neighbors Against China – Bloomberg
- Trump Extends Georgia Health Insurance Program With Work Requirements, Despite Red Tape Findings – Associated Press
- Trump Administration to Hold Back Grants From NYC, Chicago, Fairfax Schools Over Trans Bathroom Policies – Associated Press
- Trump’s Corporate Tax Break Worth $67 Billion Hits a Snag – Bloomberg
- Social Security Payments to Go Electronic Starting Next Week as Agency Moves Away From Paper Checks – CBS News
- Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen Urge Supreme Court to Let Lisa Cook Keep Her Job as a Fed Governor – Associated Press
- Millions of Student Loan Borrowers Still Aren’t Making Payments – Bloomberg
- Hegseth Orders Rare, Urgent Meeting of Hundreds of Generals, Admirals – Washington Post
- More Kids Are Severely Ill or Dying From the Flu, CDC Reports – NBC News
- RFK Jr.’s Big Vaccine Decision – Politico
- Research Tying Tylenol to Autism Lost in Court. Then It Won Trump’s Ear – Washington Post
Views and Analysis
- A Federal Shutdown May Be Imminent. How Would It Affect the Economy? – Tony Romm, New York Times
- Republicans’ Shutdown Blame Game Is Fracturing – Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney and Nicholas Wu, Politico
- The Shutdown That No One, and Everyone, Wants – Washington Post Editorial Board
- Hypocrite Democrats Are Driving Us Off the Government Shutdown Cliff – Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), New York Post
- Mike Johnson May Want a Government Shutdown to Avoid Epstein Files Vote – Ed Kilgore, New York
- Russ Vought’s Empty Shutdown Threat – Ryan Cooper, American Prospect
- Bessent’s Bizarre Bailout – Robert Kuttner, American Prospect
- What DOGE’s Sledgehammer Did to Virginia’s Economy – Abigail Spanberger, Washington Post
- Five Troubling Themes That Show Where CDC Vaccine Policy Is Headed – Leana S. Wen, Washington Post
- Millions of Americans Are Becoming Economically Invisible – Nir Kaissar, Bloomberg
- Understanding Debt, Deficits, and Interest – William McBride and Nate Scherer, Tax Foundation