Trump Promises $2,000 Tariff Refund Checks by Mid-2026

Treasury Secretary Bessent
Reuters
By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey

Happy Monday! House lawmakers are back for their first full workweek in the Capitol since mid-September. Members are expected to vote tomorrow on a bill requiring the release of more files related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. Then on Wednesday, the House is expected to pass a measure to repeal a controversial part of the legislation that ended the government shutdown: a provision that allows senators who unknowingly had their phone records collected by investigators as part of the Jan. 6 probe to sue the government for $500,000 or more. Also on the schedule for the week: A Republican resolution denouncing "the horrors of socialism."

Here's your evening update.

$2,000 Tariff Refund Checks Will Require Act of Congress: Bessent

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that Congress would have to authorize the $2,000 checks President Trump proposes to send to most Americans.

With the White House focusing on questions of affordability following Republican losses on Election Day earlier this month, Trump has said he wants to send "dividend" payments to all but those with high incomes, drawing on revenues generated by the tariffs he has imposed on trading partners around the world.

In an interview with Fox News, Bessent was equivocal about the effort, which he said would target "working families" as defined by an income limit of perhaps $100,000. "We will see," Bessent told Fox's Maria Bartiromo. "We need legislation for that."

Bessent also highlighted policies backed by the Trump administration that he said are already saving people money, including no taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime pay.

Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump indicated that any effort to provide checks would have to wait until 2026. "It will be next year," he said en route to his private club in Florida. "The tariffs allow us to give a dividend. We're going to do a dividend and we're also going to be reducing debt."

In remarks delivered at the White House Monday, Trump suggested that the program could materialize next summer. "We're going to be issuing dividends later on, somewhere prior to, you know, probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that," he told reporters. "Thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income."

Economists have calculated that it would cost more than $200 billion to distribute checks, with the price tag rising as high as $600 billion depending on how the program is designed. An analysis by the Yale Budget Lab estimates that total tariff revenues will come to $228 billion on a static basis and $183 billion on a dynamic basis in 2026.

If Congress decides to dedicate those revenues to "dividend" payments - a big if, given the concerns among many lawmakers about both inflation and the $38 trillion national debt - it would leave little room for debt reduction, or even reductions in the budget deficit, which is projected to top $2 trillion annually starting in 2027.

Medicare Part B Monthly Premiums to Rise 10% in 2026: CMS

The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B enrollees will climb 9.7% in 2026, from $185 this year to $202.90, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said Friday. That means rising Medicare costs will consume much of the 2.8% Social Security cost-of-living increase American seniors are set to receive next year.

The monthly premium increase is reportedly the second-largest dollar increase in the program's history, though it is smaller than the Medicare Trustees had forecast.

USA Today's Medora Lee notes that monthly Social Security checks are slated to rise an average of $56 next year, but that increase will be reduced to $38.10 by the higher Medicare Part B premium.

CMS also said that the annual deductible for Medicare Part B beneficiaries will be $283 in 2026, up $26 from 2025.

"The increase in the 2026 Part B standard premium and deductible is mainly due to projected price changes and assumed utilization increases that are consistent with historical experience," CMS said in its news release.

It added that the increases could have been worse if it hadn't cracked down on a category of spending that has come under scrutiny for fraud and questionable billing practices: "If the Trump Administration had not taken action to address unprecedented spending on skin substitutes, the Part B premium increase would have been about $11 more a month."

Quote of the Day

"One thing that truly unites the country is economic angst."

− Dante Chinni, founder and director of the American Communities Project, in an Associated Press article discussing the findings of a large new survey that found that inflation remains a top concern amid other shifts in how Americans from rural areas to urban ones view the direction of the country.

The survey found rising optimism in rural areas and more pessimism in big cities. "But the American people, and the many communities they call home, seem united around the idea that the economy is at best uncertain and at worst sliding downhill," Chinni and Ari Pinkus write about the poll results, adding, "Inflation dominated as a top issue nationally and locally across the board for the third consecutive year."

The American Communities Project surveyed 5,489 U.S. adults from August 18 to September 4, 2025. The poll was conducted by Ipsos and funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Number of the Day: $2,006

Adding to the economic impact of tariffs imposed by President Trump, Rio Tinto Group, the world's largest producer of aluminum, is adding a surcharge of about 70% on shipments to the U.S., translating to an added $2,006 per ton of raw metal.

Aluminum market participants reportedly describe the aluminum market as nearly broken, as prices reach record highs and inventories shrink. "The surcharge adds stress to an already extremely constrained U.S. market after President Donald Trump earlier this year imposed a 50% import tariff on the lightweight metal, which is used in everything from soda cans to construction," Bloomberg's Yvonne Yue Li reports.

Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, told Bloomberg that the surcharge means prices will move even higher. "If you are a net importer of aluminum units, and you're putting a tariff on those imports, ultimately, it's not the supplier who pays - it's the consumers, hands down," he said.

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