House Republicans Rebel Against DHS Funding Deal

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By Michael Rainey

Good evening. Lots of developments in the last 24 hours, so let's dive right in.

What Deal? House Republicans Punt on DHS Funding

It looks like the shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security will continue at least until next week, and probably longer.

Early Thursday morning, the Senate sent its bipartisan DHS funding bill to the House for the second time, amid hopes that the House would pass it by voice vote in a brief pro forma session.

Under the terms of an agreement announced yesterday by House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, House Republicans would pass the Senate bill, which funds DHS except for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection - an approach the House rejected just last week. Republicans in both chambers would then fund ICE and CBP, perhaps for as long as three years, via budget reconciliation, with the latter process playing out over the coming weeks.

But the House took no action to pass the Senate bill Thursday morning, quickly gaveling in and out of session, leaving the issue until at least Monday, when the House has its next scheduled pro forma session.

Conservative fury: House conservatives have angrily rejected the Senate bill, saying they would never support a DHS bill that leaves out funding for ICE and CBP agents. Johnson himself called the bill "a joke," but reversed himself yesterday when he agreed to provide funding for DHS in two separate bills, and President Trump expressed approval for the approach.

House conservatives, though, have stuck to their guns in opposition to the Senate bill. In a conference call Thursday afternoon, they reportedly bashed the leadership plan. Johnson defended it, but conservatives demanded that the House start working on the reconciliation bill before approving the Senate's bill.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he didn't know when the House would address the bill. "My assumption is, at some point, hopefully they'll move it," he said. "And you know, [with] the understanding that we're going to come behind it with the recon bill. I mean, I think this whole - where we are is just a regrettable place."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on the House to act quickly. "House Republicans own the longest government shutdown in history," Schumer said in a statement Thursday. "The deep division and dysfunction among House Republicans is needlessly extending the DHS shutdown and hurting federal workers who are missing another paycheck."

Trump to order pay: President Trump said Thursday that he plans to sign an executive order directing DHS to pay all employees. The move could reduce pressure on lawmakers to solve the problem through legislation anytime soon.

"Republicans are UNIFIED, and moving forward on a plan that will reload funding for our FANTASTIC Border Patrol and Immigration Enforcement Officers," Trump wrote on his social media platform. "I will soon sign an order to pay ALL of the incredible employees at the Department of Homeland Security."

Last week, Trump ordered DHS to pay TSA employees, and the new order would presumably cover all other workers in the massive department, which includes the Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Secret Service, among others.

Trump did not say where the funds would come from, or how long DHS employees could expect to be paid. Some DHS employees, including those in ICE and CBP, have been paid throughout the shutdown, drawing on funds provided by the reconciliation bill Republicans passed last summer.

The bottom line: The plan to fund DHS appears to be in limbo following vigorous pushback from House conservatives. There is now little expectation that the House will address the issue before Congress returns from its break in mid-April.

Trump Says Iran War Will Continue for Several Weeks

Those hoping that the war against Iran had reached its conclusion were disappointed Wednesday night as President Trump told the nation that he expects the conflict to last another two or three weeks.

Although Trump did say that the war will be over soon - "We are going to finish the job, and we're going to finish it very fast," he said - his lack of a firm end date, along with his pledge to hit Iran "extremely hard" in the coming days while bombing them "back to the Stone Ages where they belong," made some observers think there is still a threat that the war could continue for some time.

Reports that another aircraft carrier is headed to the Middle East, along with thousands of additional U.S. troops, have done little to ease those concerns. Adding to the threat, Trump said that if no deal can be made with Iran, the United States is "going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and properly simultaneously." Iran, which denies that any negotiations are currently taking place, has vowed to reply in kind against Israel and U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.

Sensing a hawkish tone in Trump's sometimes contradictory statements, investors sent oil prices sharply higher Thursday, with U.S. crude futures surging more than 10%, closing above $110 a barrel.

Republicans, for the most part, celebrated Trump's primetime address. Sen. Ted Cruz called it a "majestic speech," while Sen. Lindsey Graham said it offered a "defining moment" that clearly defined the war's status and goals.

Democrats had a very different reaction. Sen. Chris Murphy said the speech was "grounded in a reality that only exists in Donald Trump's mind," while Sen. Mark Warner said Trump left too many questions unanswered. "There is still no clear plan to secure Iran's nuclear material, its ballistic missile capabilities remain a threat, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," Warner said. "At the same time, the administration is easing oil sanctions in a way that is sending billions of dollars back to the very regime we are confronting."

Chart of the Day: A Tough Job

We have arrived at the one-year anniversary of "Liberation Day," when President Trump unveiled a tariff regime that he said would deliver a new "golden age" for the country.

"April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again," Trump said last year at the White House. "With today's action, we are finally going to be able to make America great again, greater than ever before. Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country ..."

As economists continue to battle over the effects of the tariffs, one thing is clear: they haven't achieved one of Trump's main objectives, which is to increase employment in the manufacturing sector. As former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman noted Thursday, the U.S. has lost about 100,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office.

According to Furman, Trump is simply experiencing what every president since Ronald Reagan has been forced to confront: "Reversing the loss of manufacturing jobs is extremely hard - and not necessarily desirable."

Furman argues that what really matters for Americans is "productivity, affordability and the growth of the whole economy." Creating more factory jobs isn't necessarily a good thing, since employment in fields as diverse as financial services, construction and education tends to pay more, and the desire to increase manufacturing employment is more rooted in nostalgia than in sound economics.

"Manufacturing jobs ... used to pay more than nonmanufacturing jobs with similar skill requirements," Furman writes. "Not anymore: Today people in nonmanagerial manufacturing jobs average $30 an hour as compared with $32 for truck drivers, $33 for wholesale trade workers and $38 for construction workers. Trying to push more people into manufacturing jobs is therefore more likely to harm the middle class than help it."

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