The 2018 elections are looking like a lose-lose proposition for the U.S. bond market, according to Bloomberg’s Liz McCormick and Alex Harris:
“If Democrats take the House, it raises the odds that congressional leaders will propose an infrastructure-spending bill similar in scope to President Donald Trump’s original trillion-dollar proposal. And if the GOP defies expectations and holds on in Congress, tax cut 2.0 becomes more likely. In either case, the result will be debt, debt and more debt.”
With the federal budget deficit high and rising, and the Treasury already increasing its bond issuance even as the Federal Reserve scales back its bond holdings, “any dropoff in investor demand for the burgeoning supply of U.S. Treasuries could mean tens of billions of dollars in additional interest -- all of which taxpayers would ultimately have to pay,” McCormick and Harris write.
The key quote: “Here’s a certainty: It doesn’t matter who wins [in November], we’re going to be issuing debt forever,” Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, tells Bloomberg. “There will be a push toward more expansionary fiscal policy. Be ready.”