6.6M Homes at Risk of Hurricane Damage This Year. Here’s Which States They’re In

As hurricane season gets underway, real estate analytics firm CoreLogic is warning that there are more than 6.6 million U.S. homes at risk of being hit by a storm surge. That could lead to as much at $1.5 trillion in damage.
The homes are in 19 states and the District of Columbia along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Six states account for more than three-quarters of all at-risk homes, with Florida having the most (2.5 million), followed by Louisiana (760,000), New York (465,000), New Jersey (446,148), Texas (441,304) and Virginia (420,052).
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“The number of hurricanes each year is less important than the location of where the next hurricane will come ashore,” CoreLogic’s senior hazard risk analyst said in a statement. “It only takes one hurricane that pushes storm surge into a major metropolitan area for the damage to tally in the billions of dollars. With new home construction, and any amount of sea-level rise, the number of homes at risk of storm surge damage will continue to increase.”
The District of Columbia has the lowest number of properties at risk (3,700), followed by New Hampshire (12,400) and Maine (22,500
State Table (Ranked by Number of Homes at Risk)
Rank |
State |
Extreme |
Very High |
High |
Moderate |
Low* |
Total |
1 |
Florida |
793,204 |
461,632 |
524,923 |
352,102 |
377,951 |
2,509,812 |
2 |
Louisiana |
97,760 |
104,059 |
337,495 |
138,762 |
82,196 |
760,272 |
3 |
New York |
127,325 |
114,876 |
131,039 |
91,294 |
N/A |
464,534 |
4 |
New Jersey |
116,581 |
178,668 |
73,303 |
77,596 |
N/A |
446,148 |
5 |
Texas |
45,800 |
70,894 |
112,189 |
116,168 |
96,253 |
441,304 |
6 |
Virginia |
94,260 |
115,770 |
98,463 |
84,015 |
27,544 |
420,052 |
7 |
South Carolina |
107,443 |
57,327 |
65,885 |
46,799 |
30,961 |
308,415 |
8 |
North Carolina |
73,463 |
51,927 |
48,595 |
40,155 |
37,347 |
251,487 |
9 |
Massachusetts |
31,420 |
65,279 |
74,413 |
49,325 |
N/A |
220,437 |
10 |
Maryland |
47,990 |
39,966 |
27,591 |
28,975 |
N/A |
144,522 |
11 |
Georgia |
41,970 |
52,281 |
28,852 |
19,190 |
8,465 |
150,758 |
12 |
Pennsylvania |
1,467 |
45,776 |
37,983 |
32,426 |
N/A |
117,652 |
13 |
Mississippi |
14,809 |
20,643 |
29,387 |
27,507 |
10,588 |
102,934 |
14 |
Connecticut |
25,292 |
23,656 |
22,230 |
26,529 |
N/A |
97,707 |
15 |
Alabama |
7,403 |
12,707 |
10,182 |
13,749 |
14,086 |
58,127 |
16 |
Delaware |
11,523 |
10,854 |
13,528 |
13,811 |
N/A |
49,716 |
17 |
Rhode Island |
6,595 |
5,988 |
6,720 |
7,187 |
N/A |
26,490 |
18 |
Maine |
5,159 |
2,753 |
7,368 |
7,211 |
N/A |
22,491 |
19 |
New Hampshire |
2,514 |
3,470 |
4,234 |
2,272 |
N/A |
12,490 |
20 |
District of Columbia |
N/A** |
N/A** |
545 |
3,123 |
N/A |
3,668 |
Total |
1,651,978 |
1,438,526 |
1,654,925 |
1,178,196 |
685,391 |
6,609,016 |
* The "Low" risk category is based on Category 5 hurricanes, which are not likely along the northeastern Atlantic coast. States in that area have N/A designated for the Low category due to the extremely low probability of a Category 5 storm affecting that area.
** Washington, D.C. has no Atlantic coastal properties, but can be affected by larger hurricanes that push storm surge into the Potomac River. Category 1 and 2 storms will likely not generate sufficient storm surge to affect properties in Washington, D.C.
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More than half of registered voters polled by Morning Consult and Politico said they support work requirements for Medicaid recipients. Thirty-seven percent oppose such eligibility rules.
Martin Feldstein Is Optimistic About Tax Cuts, and Long-Term Deficits
In a new piece published at Project Syndicate, the conservative economist, who led President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984, writes that pro-growth tax individual and corporate reform will get done — and that any resulting spike in the budget deficit will be temporary:
“Although the net tax changes may widen the budget deficit in the short term, the incentive effects of lower tax rates and the increased accumulation of capital will mean faster economic growth and higher real incomes, both of which will cause rising taxable incomes and lower long-term deficits.”
Doing tax reform through reconciliation — allowing it to be passed by a simple majority in the Senate, as long as it doesn’t add to the deficit after 10 years — is another key. “By designing the tax and spending rules accordingly and phasing in future revenue increases, the Republicans can achieve the needed long-term surpluses,” Feldstein argues.
Of course, the big questions remain whether tax and spending changes are really designed as Feldstein describes — and whether “future revenue increases” ever come to fruition. Otherwise, those “long-term surpluses” Feldstein says we need won’t ever materialize.
JP Morgan: Don’t Expect Tax Reform This Year
Gary Cohn, President Trump’s top economic adviser, seems pretty confident that Congress can produce a tax bill in a hurry. He told the Financial Times (paywall) last week that the Ways and Means Committee should be write a bill “in the next three of four weeks.” But most experts doubt that such a complicated undertaking can be accomplished so quickly. In a note to clients this week, J.P. Morgan analysts said they don’t expect to see a tax bill passed until mid-2018, following months of political wrangling:
“There will likely be months of committee hearings, lobbying by affected groups, and behind-the-scenes horse trading before final tax legislation emerges. Our baseline forecast continues to pencil in a modest, temporary, deficit-financed tax cut to be passed in 2Q2018 through the reconciliation process, avoiding the need to attract 60 votes in the Senate.”
Trump Still Has No Tax Reform Plan to Pitch
Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur writes that, even as President Trump prepares to push tax reform thus week, basic questions about the plan have no answers: “Will the changes be permanent or temporary? How will individual tax brackets be set? What rate will corporations and small businesses pay?”
“They’re nowhere. They’re just nowhere,” Henrietta Treyz, a tax analyst with Veda Partners and former Senate tax staffer, tells Kapur. “I see them putting these ideas out as though they’re making progress, but they are the same regurgitated ideas we’ve been talking about for 20 years that have never gotten past the white-paper stage.”
The Fiscal Times Newsletter - August 28, 2017
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