Sanders Pulls Ahead in Iowa, but a Tougher Clinton Aims to Even the Score

Sanders Pulls Ahead in Iowa, but a Tougher Clinton Aims to Even the Score

Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders addresses the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Summer Meeting in Minneapolis, Minnesota
© Craig Lassig / Reuters
By Martin Matishak

A new poll unveiled Thursday finds populist Bernie Sanders squeezing past Hillary Clinton for the first time as the preferred choice among likely Iowa caucus-goers.

The survey by Quinnipiac University shows the Vermont lawmaker receiving 41 percent, while Clinton garnered 40 percent. The figures put Sanders’ lead well within the poll’s 3.4 percent margin of error, but the numbers serve as another indication of how tight the Democratic primary has become, especially in Iowa where Clinton has long maintained an advantage.

Related: With Trump and Sanders Riding High, How Low Will Bush and Clinton Go?

The poll found another 12 percent of voters would support Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to decide if he will enter the 2016 race. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley received 3 percent, and the same number were undecided.

While many could view the survey as the latest sign Clinton’s campaign is flailing, the timing of the poll could prove crucial.

The study was conducted between August 27 and September 8. That was the same day the former secretary of State told ABC News that using a personal email account while in office was a mistake and that she is sorry for it.

Related: Hillary’s E-Mail Lapse ... Mistake ... Responsibility ... er, 'Apology'

“I do think I could have and should have done a better job answering questions earlier. I really didn’t perhaps appreciate the need to do that,” Clinton said. “What I had done was allowed, it was above board. But in retrospect, as I look back at it now, even though it was allowed, I should have used two accounts. One for personal, one for work-related emails. That was a mistake. I’m sorry about that. I take responsibility.”

The interview marked the first time she apologized for her unique email arrangement. Questions over Clinton’s use of a private server have dogged her candidacy since she entered the White House race earlier this year.

Republicans have used the controversy surrounding the server to paint Clinton as untrustworthy and unfit to serve in the White House.

Related: Clinton: Trump Is Bad for American Politics

Indeed, Thursday’s poll found that while Clinton is still liked among Democratic voters who believe she would make a good leader, Sanders fares better on the question of trustworthiness.

The Quinnipiac poll also closed before Clinton gave a muscular foreign policy speech at the Brookings Institution on, among other things, the Iran nuclear deal.

“We should anticipate that Iran will test the next president,” she said. “They'll want to see how far they can bend the rules.”

“That won't work if I'm in the White House. I'll hold the line against Iranian noncompliance,” Clinton added.

On the softer side of things, Clinton’s interview on “The Ellen DeGeneres Show” will air Thursday afternoon. The appearance will give her a chance to connect with female voters who are the backbone of her support.

Taken together, the various actions could put Clinton back atop the polls, at least in Iowa, and help her gain back ground she lost to Sanders in New Hampshire as well.

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Can Trump Bring Democrats Along on Taxes?

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a speech on tax reform legislation at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 13, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
CARLOS BARRIA
By The Fiscal Times Staff

Although Republicans are prepared to go it alone on tax reform, President Trump suggested creating a bipartisan working group on the topic during a Wednesday meeting with senators from both parties. Some senators were open to the idea, but it doesn’t look like Republicans have much interest in slowing down the process with in-depth negotiations. “I don’t really personally see the benefit of creating additional structure. I think we’ve got all the tools we need,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who attended the meeting, according to Politico. Democrats appear skeptical, too. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said he told Trump that the distance between what Republicans were saying about their plan and what it actually does is a serious problem.

Where Trump Will Compromise on Tax Reform

U.S. President Trump speaks about tax reform during a visit to Loren Cook Company in Springfield
KEVIN LAMARQUE
By The Fiscal Times Staff

White House officials tell USA Today’s Heidi Przybyla that President Trump will include a number of compromises to limit his tax plan’s benefits for the wealthy when he promotes the blueprint next month:

“The compromises will include ending a 23.8% preferential tax rate for hedge-fund managers, or the so-called carried interest rate, White House legislative affairs director Marc Short told USA TODAY. … Retaining parts of a state and local tax deduction that benefits many middle-class families in blue states is also an area where Trump is expecting compromise.”

Trump campaigned on raising the carried interest rate, saying its beneficiaries are “getting away with murder.” But changes to the carried interest rate may run into opposition from House Republicans, and the tweaks appear unlikely to win any Democratic support.

Larry Summers Savages Trump Tax Plan Analysis

By Michael Rainey

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers made his distaste for the Trump administration’s tax framework clear last week when he said Republicans were using “made-up” claims about the plan and its effects. Summers expanded his criticism on Tuesday in a blog post that took aim at the report released Monday by the Council of Economic Advisers and chair Kevin Hassett, which seeks to justify the administration’s claim that its tax plan will result in a $4,000 pay raise for the average American family.

Never one to mince words, Summers says the CEA analysis is “some combination of dishonest, incompetent and absurd.” The pay raise figure is indefensible, since “there is no peer-reviewed support for his central claim that cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 to 20 percent would raise wages by $4000 per worker.” In the end, Summers says that “if a Ph.D student submitted the CEA analysis as a term paper in public finance, I would be hard pressed to give it a passing grade.”

One of the authors cited in the CEA paper also has some concerns. Harvard Business School professor Mihir Desai tweeted Tuesday that the CEA analysis “misinterprets” a 2007 paper he co-wrote on the dynamics of the corporate tax burden. Desai’s research has found a connection between business tax cuts and wage growth, but not as large as the CEA paper claims. “Cutting corporate taxes will help wages but exaggeration only serves to undercut the reasonableness of the core argument,” Desai wrote.

For Tax Reform, It May Be 2017 or Bust

By The Fiscal Times Staff

National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn said Monday that tax reform has to happen this year, even if it means Congress has to stay in session longer. "I think we have a unique window in time right now, but unfortunately we keep losing days to this window,” he said. “The opportunity is now." House Speaker Paul Ryan said last week he’d keep members over Christmas if that’s what it takes. And Ryan predicted Monday that tax reform would pass the House by early next month and then get through the Senate to reach the president’s desk by the end of the year. But there are plenty of skeptics out there, given the hurdles. Issac Boltansky, an analyst at the investment bank Compass Point, told Business Insider, "The idea of getting tax reform done this year is a farcical fantasy. Lawmakers have neither the time nor the capacity to formulate and clear a tax reform package in 2017."

Do Republicans Have the Votes for the Next Step Toward Tax Reform?

The U.S. Capitol Building is seen shortly before sunset in Washington
REUTERS/Zach Gibson
By The Fiscal Times Staff

Passing a budget resolution for 2018 through the Senate will open a procedural door to a $1.5 trillion tax cut over 10 years. The resolution is expected to reach the Senate floor this week, although there are questions about whether Republicans have the 50 votes they need to pass it. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) said this weekend that she would vote for it and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is likely a “yes” as well, but Sen. Rand Paul (R-TN) is reportedly a likely “no” and John McCain (R-AZ) appears questionable. Now it looks like Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MI) won't be back in Washington this week to vote on the resolution due to health problems. The Hill says Cochran’s absence puts tax reform “on knife’s edge.”