This week’s rollout of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s new book Hard Choices has the feel of a presidential campaign and coronation all rolled into one.
With appearances scheduled with all four major television networks, a new poll out showing the former First Lady, senator and Secretary of State light years ahead of any would-be Democratic challenger and comfortably ahead of GOP rivals, Clinton may well be at the apogee of her influence and popularity.
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Once before, Clinton was considered the inevitable Democratic nominee – before Barack Obama beat her out for the nomination in 2008. For every positive sign in the latest polling suggesting she has a clear path to the White House in 2016, there is another sign of a political minefield ahead.
In a weekend preview of Monday’s interview with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer, a very relaxed looking Clinton said she was in no rush to reveal her decision on whether to seek the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. She noted that her husband Bill didn’t start running for president officially until roughly a year before the 1992 presidential election.
"I will be on the way to making a decision by the end of the year, yes," she told Sawyer. "Certainly not before then," Clinton said, referring to the end of 2014. "I just want to kind of get through this year, travel around the country, sign books, help [Democrats] in the midterm elections in the fall, and then take a deep breath and kind of go through my pluses and minuses about what I will – and will not – be thinking about as I make the decision."
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But nobody is fooled by this professed lackadaisical timetable: Clinton’s recent speeches and travel to drum up interest in her books have had the feel of campaign events, according to media accounts. And the Wall Street Journal reported today that Robby Mook, a Democratic strategist who may be in the running to manage Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, has been meeting with top aides to Clinton to discuss strategies to win enough states to clinch the nomination.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend suggests that Clinton would crush any other Democrat foolhardy enough to challenge her for their party’s nomination. Moreover, she would begin the general election campaign with a healthy 10 to 12-point lead over at least three of the possible Republican candidates – Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.
Clinton enjoys the support of 66 percent of voters who lean Democratic, compared with just 12 percent for Vice President Joe Biden and seven percent for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), the darling of Democratic liberals and progressives, according to the poll. Between 55 percent and 67 percent of Americans think she understands the problems of ordinary Americans, has new ideas, is honest and trustworthy and is a strong leader. And 59 percent approve of her job performance at the State Department.
In head to head matchups with possible Republican rivals, Clinton wins 53 percent to 41 percent against both Christie and Bush and by 53 percent to 43 percent against Paul.
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Despite his problems with the “Bridgegate” scandal, Christie leads all potential GOP candidates with 23 percent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee at 14 percent, Paul at 12 percent and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz tied at 10 percent each, according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey. Much of Christie’s lead comes from those identifying as moderate and somewhat conservative.
As strong as Clinton appears right now, the Washington Post-ABC News survey exposed several important chinks in her armor that could mushroom into major headaches should she decide to enter the presidential battleground. Here are four:
1- Although her numbers look solid across the board, Clinton performs better among party regulars than independents who lean Democratic. The survey found that while 74 percent of Democrats would support her for president, just 58 percent of Democratic-leaning independents share that sentiment. According to the ABC News analysis, that might slightly open the door to an intra-party or anti-establishment opponent.
2 - Republican and conservative sentiment runs high against Clinton – and that partisanship colors voter perception of her career and performance. For example, while 90 percent of Democrats approve of Clinton’s job performance as secretary of state, just 27 percent of Republicans (and 54 percent of independents) agree. The ideological schism is such that approval of her tenure as secretary of state ranges from 96 percent among liberal Democrats to a mere 19 percent among conservative Republicans.
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3 - While Clinton enjoys a 59 percent overall approval rating for her work at State, things look bleaker when voters are asked to assess her handling of specific issues. For example, only 37 percent approve of her handling of the 2012 terrorist attack on a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya, where the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans were killed. Moreover, 58 percent also think the Obama administration has covered up what it knows about that attack, and half favor the plans for a further congressional investigation – which may result in Clinton being called again to testify.
4 - Finally, if she runs for president, Clinton will have to break another big glass ceiling that has thwarted previous bids by women for president or vice president. If she runs and makes it, Clinton would be the first woman ever to claim the Democratic presidential nomination. However, the general election campaign could prove problematic given gender biases among the electorate. Currently, Clinton leads Rand Paul by 18 points, 57 to 39 percent, among women, but runs essentially even among men, 47-46 percent.
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