On President Obama’s first stop in India, touching off his Asian tour that concludes in Seoul at the G-20, he is seeing a nation uniquely characterized by its large population of young people. While he may witness dramatic scenes of poverty, it will be the teeming centers of economic growth, driven by India’s educated and youthful elite, that he will take back. India has averaged 6.5 percent growth a year since its 1991 economic liberalization reforms, and more recently is growing at 8 percent per year, which analysts expect to continue for the next quarter century. India’s strong growth is due in considerable measure to its young work force.
But as President Obama makes his way across the Asian continent, he will notice a marked contrast between India and most other G-20 countries. The contrast will be especially dramatic in South Korea, where the G-20 meeting itself will be held at the end of the week. India’s relatively younger population — about five-sixths of India’s growth over the next quarter century will be in working-age population — is quite different from South Korea, where 36 percent of the traditional working-age population will have been lost by midcentury. In fact, most G-20 countries are more like South Korea: The Europeans will lose 24 percent of their prime working age population, and the Japanese will have a stunning 30 percent of their population 65 and over by 2030.
With longevity and low fertility driving these demographic realities through at least the first half of this century, G-20 countries have a common interest shifting the economic role of the new, older middle age. So, while age-related economics may not be on the G-20 agenda, it will be the elephant in the room. And shame on G-20 leaders if it is not a top priority when they meet again in June in France. Surely this broad and consequential topic can impact economies in Mumbai, Paris, Seoul and the euro zone countries, and ought to find its way onto the G-20 Agenda. President Obama could take a leadership role on a topic that is both cross-party and global.
