In a September 29 post, University of California, San Diego, economist James Hamilton took issue with the commonly-held view that a recession isn’t over until GDP has again reached its previous peak, rather than when it has begun rising from its trough. (Note: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on September 28 found that 70 percent of Americans (Question 24) believe we are still in a recession.)
A September 28 report from Pew detailed the economic costs of incarceration. It notes that 1 in every 28 children in American now has a parent behind bars, versus 1 in 125 just 25 years ago.
Also on September 28, the Census Bureau released data from its American Community Survey for 2009. It details a fall in median family income, a rise in poverty, and an increase in income inequality.
A September 23 paper by economists David M. Levy and Sandra J. Peart examined the history of bond rating agencies. They find that government regulators were aware of the upward bias in bond ratings as early as the 1930s, but the problem was never fixed.
On September 23, the National Academy of Sciences released a new report on the deterioration of American competitiveness.
On September 22, University of Wisconsin economist Menzie Chinn posted an analysis of unemployment. He believes that the structurally unemployed make up less than two percentage points of the current unemployment rate, the rest being cyclically unemployed.
Also on September 22, the Economic Policy Institute published a briefing paper on unemployment. It is critical of the argument that a large fraction of unemployment consists of those structurally unemployed. If that were the case, then it would be reasonable to think that additional stimulus would be more likely to stimulate inflation than reduce unemployment.
In a September 21 commentary, Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner expressed optimism that mortgage refinancings at record low interest rates will eventually free up cash flow that will stimulate consumption and growth.
Also on September 21, the Small Business Administration published a study of the impact of government regulation on small businesses.
A September 20 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office examined the percentage of women among the ranks of business managers.
A September 13 paper by University of Cologne economist Judith Niehues examined the impact of government spending on inequality. She finds that while some programs reduce inequality, others increase it by discouraging labor force participation.
Bruce Bartlett is an American historian and columnist who focuses on the intersection between politics and economics. He blogs daily and writes a weekly column at The Fiscal Times. Read his most recent column here. Bartlett has written for Forbes Magazine and Creators Syndicate, and his work is informed by many years in government, including as a senior policy analyst in the Reagan White House. He is the author of seven books including the New York Times best-seller, Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy (Doubleday, 2006).
