Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

Despite his commanding lead at this early stage among GOP candidates, the 2016 nomination is anyone’s game.
It is risky to put too much stock in the latest findings, including the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday. That’s because the national telephone survey of 1,000 adults included only 252 registered voters who said they would vote for a Republican, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.17 points.
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There are plenty of downsides to Trump’s candidacy – including his threat to mount a third-party campaign if he is denied the Republican nomination -- which has alarmed GOP leaders who are looking down the road to the general election.
Trump has the highest negatives of any of the top tier candidates, and a majority of Americans in the survey said they think Trump is hurting the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Democrats interviewed said Trump was harming his party’s image, but nearly half the Republicans interviewed said the same thing.
Political analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump ranks just 13th in overall favorability among Republicans in a series of national polls. “If you’re going to imply that a candidate is popular based on their receiving 20 percent of the vote, you ought to consider what the other 80 percent thinks about him,” Silver wrote recently in his FiveThirtyEight blog. “Most Republicans who don’t plan to vote for Trump are skeptical of him instead.”
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What’s more, about three in four Latinos said they have a negative view of Trump – and that more than half consider his comments about lawless Mexican immigrants to be racist or highly inappropriate, according to a separate NBC News/Wall Street Journal Telemundo poll released today.
The survey of 250 Hispanic-American voters revealed widespread hostility towards Trump, with only 13 percent saying they have a positive view of him.
The Republican presidential frontrunner has said repeatedly that many Latino voters “love” and support him, and that he would win the majority of that vote if he ends up as his party’s nominee. There is little evidence in this poll to suggest Trump is dealing with reality.
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Why You Might Want to Cancel That Restaurant Reservation

The cost of dining out rose 3 percent in May year-over-year, while the amount paid to eat at home inched up just 0.6 percent. The growing disparity in prices could prompt consumers to abandon restaurants for home-cooked meals, according to a report today by Bloomberg.
“Eating in hasn’t been this attractive compared to dining out since 2010,” Bloomberg reports. That’s good news for consumers worried about their budgets, but could be a problem for restaurants’ bottom lines.
So far, consumers aren’t making the shift. This spring, spending at restaurants and bars totaled more than sales at grocery stores for the first time.
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Part of the reason consumers are sticking with restaurants could be that wages are starting to slowly increase, so consumers have a little more money to spend on meals.
They may also be dining out because it’s often an easier option. Shopping and preparing meals takes time – time that people simply don’t have these days. A quarter of employees say that they are working after the standard work day has ended, and about 40 percent work at least one weekend a month, according to Staples Advantage. That leaves little time for food prep.
Supermarkets have responded to the time-pressed consumer by increasingly offering prepared meals that require little more than reheating at home. The prices for such meals tend to be higher than the cost of their ingredients but less than the price of eating out or ordering in.
Here’s What Consumers Were and Weren’t Buying in June

Retail sales were disappointingly soft in June, continuing a zig-zag pattern of strength and weakness this year. Sales fell 0.3 percent, falling shy of economists’ expectations for a 0.3 percent gain after a 1 percent jump in May. The only spending categories to post decent gains were electronics and appliance stores sales, gas station sales and discount stores.
“In May, retail gains signaled that consumers may have started using their so-called pump price dividend toward purchases of discretionary items,” Chris G. Christopher, Jr., the director of consumer economics at IHS Global Insight, wrote in an email to clients. Now, he added, the retail data “are pointing to a consumer that spends their paycheck in fits and starts.”
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Those fits and starts averaged out to a fairly healthy 2.6 percent annualized increase over April, May and June. “The glass half-full take on consumers is that 2.6 percent is still somewhat better than the 2.3 percent consumption growth we've averaged since the beginning of the current expansion,” J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli said in a research note. “The glass half-empty view is that there is now even less evidence of a sharp snapback in spending after an unambiguously disappointing Q1.”
Here’s a breakdown from the Bespoke Investment Group of how different retail categories fared:

7 Personal Details You Should Never Divulge Online

What do the following have in common?
- The name of your favorite movie
- Concert tickets or sporting event passes with a barcode
- Your high school
- Your mother’s maiden name
- The name of your best friend in high school
- Your full birthdate, including the year
- The street address of your childhood home
Basically, any of the answers above can be used to answer common security questions that would allow cyber thieves to gain access to an online banking or credit card account. They can be used to reset your password. That’s why you should never post these details publicly on a social media account. Even the name of a beloved pet or school mascot can be fair game.
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We already know not to post our vacation plans, where we are meeting friends for drinks or dinner, or where our children go to school. But we should be aware that information we post on our social media accounts can be used by others to profile and target us.
This is especially important when you consider that Facebook users admit that as much as 7 percent of their Friend lists, which can easily number 200 or more, are people they’ve never met in person. If you share your address and phone number on Facebook with Friends only, make sure all of your contacts are people you know; otherwise cut them from your list or relegate them to Acquaintance status.
Even if you don’t have a profile on Facebook, chances are your spouse, co-worker, or teenager does. According to the Pew Research Center, half of Internet users who do not use Facebook themselves live with someone who does. Make sure they’re not giving out your personal information too.
Shopping Showdown: Walmart Takes On Amazon’s ‘Prime Day’

In case it wasn’t already perfectly obvious that Walmart is gunning for Amazon, the Bentonville, Ark. giant just kicked up its e-tailing competition.
Walmart announced today that it will also offer thousands of discounts for online purchases on July 15, the same day Amazon plans on hosting its Prime Day shopping extravaganza. And in its blog post announcing the sales, Walmart took a clear swipe at Amazon’s push to have shoppers subscribe to its $99 a year Prime service.
“We’ve heard some retailers are charging $100 to get access to a sale,” the Walmart blog says. “But the idea of asking customers to pay extra in order to save money just doesn’t add up for us. We’re standing up for our customers and everyone else who sees no rhyme or reason for paying a premium to save.”
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Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is also offering another limited-time deal to boost e-commerce sales. Starting today, customers will receive free standard shipping with online purchases that cost a minimum of $35, instead of the usual $50. The change will be effective for at least 30 days.
In February, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told analysts on an earnings conference call that the company would invest between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion in e-commerce throughout the year.
Neither Walmart nor Amazon has released information about specific sale offers yet, so the early hype might prove unwarranted, but the battle is clearly on and now the claws are out.
Update: Amazon responded to Walmart’s gibe with its own accusation. “We’ve heard some retailers are charging higher prices for items in their physical stores than they do for the same items online,” Greg Greeley, vice president of Amazon Prime, wrote in an email to Bloomberg. “The idea of charging your in-store customers more than your online customers doesn’t add up for us.”
We’re All Becoming Distracted Victims of Smartphones

Your phone buzzes at work. You promised yourself you wouldn’t check your phone until you turn in your half-finished assignment that’s due in an hour, so you don’t. But you start to wonder — who is texting you? What does the text say? Your mind wanders.
A new study has found that even when we try to disregard a notification, just being aware of a new message distracts us enough to impair our concentration and hurt our performance. These distractions are equal to actively opening the notification on your mobile device.
A Gallup poll reveals that 81 percent of smartphone users keep their phone in close proximity “almost all the time during waking hours.” Depending on the volume of notifications users receive, keeping a phone so close could lead to a noticeably negative impact on work performance.
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The study adds to the growing list of negative affects smartphones can have on users. Other effects include impaired sleep, increased pressure to communicate with friends and family, and the inability to detach from work.
Smartphones are only going to affect more and more individuals. The number of people who own a smartphone has increased from 35 percent in 2011 to 64 percent in April of this year. Among millennials, 84 percent report owning a smartphone.
As millennials begin to enter the workforce and the number of apps available for download increases, the potential for distraction only grows larger.