Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

Despite his commanding lead at this early stage among GOP candidates, the 2016 nomination is anyone’s game.
It is risky to put too much stock in the latest findings, including the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday. That’s because the national telephone survey of 1,000 adults included only 252 registered voters who said they would vote for a Republican, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.17 points.
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There are plenty of downsides to Trump’s candidacy – including his threat to mount a third-party campaign if he is denied the Republican nomination -- which has alarmed GOP leaders who are looking down the road to the general election.
Trump has the highest negatives of any of the top tier candidates, and a majority of Americans in the survey said they think Trump is hurting the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Democrats interviewed said Trump was harming his party’s image, but nearly half the Republicans interviewed said the same thing.
Political analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump ranks just 13th in overall favorability among Republicans in a series of national polls. “If you’re going to imply that a candidate is popular based on their receiving 20 percent of the vote, you ought to consider what the other 80 percent thinks about him,” Silver wrote recently in his FiveThirtyEight blog. “Most Republicans who don’t plan to vote for Trump are skeptical of him instead.”
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What’s more, about three in four Latinos said they have a negative view of Trump – and that more than half consider his comments about lawless Mexican immigrants to be racist or highly inappropriate, according to a separate NBC News/Wall Street Journal Telemundo poll released today.
The survey of 250 Hispanic-American voters revealed widespread hostility towards Trump, with only 13 percent saying they have a positive view of him.
The Republican presidential frontrunner has said repeatedly that many Latino voters “love” and support him, and that he would win the majority of that vote if he ends up as his party’s nominee. There is little evidence in this poll to suggest Trump is dealing with reality.
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3 Big Reasons You’re Getting Nothing Done at Work

Cell phones often get blamed for the always-on work culture that keeps us tethered to our jobs around the clock.
Turns out they might be the reason we’re not getting our work done during office hours in the first place. More than half of employers say that cell phones and texting are the biggest productivity killers at work, making them the number one distraction, according to a new survey from CareerBuilder.com.
Other top productivity killers included the Internet, named by 44 percent of employers, gossip (37 percent), and social media (37 percent).
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“There are so many stimulants in today’s workplace, it’s easy to see how employees get sidetracked,” Rosemary Haefner, Career Builder’s Chief Human Resources Officer said in a statement “The good news is, taking breaks from work throughout the day can actually be good for productivity, enabling the mind to take a break from the job at hand and re-energize you.”
Nearly half of employers said that such distractions compromised the quality of work, and 30 percent said they caused lower morale since other workers had to pick up slack for their preoccupied peers. A quarter of employers said that distractions hurt the boss/employee relationship.
Nearly 3 in 4 employers have been proactive about battling productivity killers, with a third blocking certain Internet sites and 23 percent banning personal cell phone calls and usage on the job.
Haefner recommends that workers stay focused by scheduling breaks, surrounding themselves with productive people and taking walks to rejuvenate the brain.
Now 16-Year-Olds Can Double Your Car Insurance

As if you don’t have enough to worry about when your 16-year-old hits the road for the first time, get ready to see your insurance bill nearly double.
The average insurance premium for a married couple goes up 80 percent on average when adding a teen, but it spikes a full 16 percent more for adding a 16-year-old, according to a new report by InsuranceQuotes.com.
Requesting a “good student” discount is one way to offset the premium hike. “I’ve seen discounts as high as 25 percent for students who maintain at least a B average in high school or college,” InsuranceQuotes.com senior analyst Laura Adams said in a statement.
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And once a teen hits the ripe old age of 19, insurance increases by just 60 percent.
It’s much more expensive to insure teenage boys, with premiums increasing 92 percent for teen males versus just 67 percent for girls.
The analysis found that teenagers cost the most to insure in New Hampshire (115 percent increase), but parents will also see premiums double in Wyoming, Illinois, Maine and Rhode Island.
Hawaii is the only state that prohibits insurance companies from basing insurance quotes on age or length of driving experience, so it has the lowest increase in the nation (17 percent). Other states where parents won’t take as big a hit are New York (53 percent) and Michigan (57 percent).
Parents may be able to nab better car insurance rates by shopping around with several insurers.
Thinking Ahead Could Be Holding Women Back

Different attitudes in how men and women prepare for their futures might be a factor contributing to the gender gap, a new study published in Gender & Society finds.
In imagining their work paths, women were disproportionately more likely to think and worry about parenthood than men. And in anticipation of the responsibilities and challenges that parenthood brings, women were more likely than men to downscale or alter their career goals.
Brooke Conroy Bass, who wrote the article, conducted in-depth interviews with 30 heterosexual couples between 25 and 34 who have not (yet) had children.
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Preparing for the future has emotional and behavioral consequences for women that men don’t suffer as much from, she found. Because of these “gendered anticipations of parenthood,” the inequality in the market starts much earlier than we tend to think.
Bass told Futurity that career trajectories among men and women shift as parenthood approaches, with men investing more effort in their jobs and women dialing back.
The study suggests that part of the problem contributing to the gender wage gap, penalization for maternity leave and the difficulty of making it to the top is anticipating the future.
But should women be penalized for displaying foresight, a characteristic that employers usually value?
American Kids Aren’t Such Stoners After All

Turns out the young people of America are not as high as you thought they were. The use of illicit drugs, alcohol and tobacco among young people has been falling, according to new data.
While the nationwide rate of illicit drug use has gone up, the percentage of youths using illicit drugs has declined, according to a report from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Service Administration (SAMSHA), part of the Department of Health and Human Services. The illicit drugs include marijuana/hashish, cocaine (including crack), hallucinogens, heroin, inhalants or prescription-type psychotherapeutics.
Among youths aged 12 to 17, the rate of illicit drug use was down to 8.8 percent in 2013 from 9.5 to 11.6 percent in the years 2002 to 2007, the SAMSHA study said.
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But in 2013, drug use among those 12 or older was up to 9.4 percent from the 7.9 to 8.7 percent found between 2002 and 2009. The rise was attributed to increased rates of marijuana use, both medical and nonmedical, among adults aged 26 and older — and that rise probably doesn't fully reflect the recent legalization of recreational marijuana in Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska.
The report also suggested that alcohol is losing some of its allure for the young.
Between 2002 and 2013, the percentage of underage people who drank declined from 28.8 percent to 22.7 percent. In addition, the proportion of binge drinkers — those who consumed five or more drinks during one occasion — decreased from 19.3 percent to 14.2 percent in the same years.
In additional good news, tobacco and cigarette use among all age groups has declined sharply since 2002.
Your Airplane Carry-on Bag Is About to Shrink

Are you one of those people who likes to brag about how you can fit a week’s worth of stuff into your carry-on suitcase? If so, your job is about to get harder.
The International Air Transport Association, a trade group representing some 250 airlines, has introduced a proposal to reduce the maximum allowable carry-on suitcase size. Under the proposed rule change, carry-on bags would have to be less than 21.5 x 13.5 x 7.5 inches. Current rules for carry-on size vary by airline, but they’re generally larger than that.
The organization claims that this would allow all passengers on a plane to store their bags in the cabin. “The development of an agreed optimal cabin bag size will bring common sense and order to the problem of differing sizes for carry-on bags,” IATA Senior Vice President for Airport, Passenger and Cargo Security said in a statement. “We know the current situation can be frustrating for passengers.
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Several major airlines have signaled interest in introducing the guidelines, according to IATA. Luggage manufacturers will start labeling bags that meet the new criteria as “IATA Cabin OK.”
The rule change may force more consumers to check luggage and pay the checked-bag fees many airlines have introduced in the past few years. Airlines typically charge $25 for the first bag, $35 for the second, and more than $100 for a third bag.
Some airlines, including Spirit, Allegiant and Frontier, also charge passengers for carry-on bags.