Budget Deal Moving Ahead, Despite Outrage on the Right
The bipartisan deal to suspend the debt ceiling and increase federal spending over the next two years will get a vote in the House on Thursday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said late Tuesday. Leaders in both parties have expressed confidence that the bill will pass before lawmakers leave town for their August recess.
"We're gonna pass it," Hoyer told reporters. "I think we'll get a good number [of votes]. I don't know if it's gonna be huge, but we're gonna pass it."
President Trump announced that he backs the deal, removing one possible hurdle for the bill. “Budget Deal gives great victories to our Military and Vets, keeps out Democrat poison pill riders. Republicans and Democrats in Congress need to act ASAP and support this deal,” he tweeted Tuesday evening.
Despite widespread agreement that the bill will pass, however, not everyone is on board.
Grumbles from the left: Some progressive Democrats have been critical of the deal, portraying it as too easy on Republicans. Worried that the agreement could set up a budget crisis in 2021, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said he was “concerned that it was a two-year deal. Why not a one year deal?... It seems like it’s basically handcuffing the next president.” Other liberals, noting that Democratic leaders have agreed to avoid “poison pill” riders on controversial issues such as abortion and funding for the border wall in the funding bills that must pass this fall, lamented their loss of leverage in those negotiations.
Outrage on the right: Resistance to the deal was more pronounced on the right, with the hardline House Freedom Caucus announcing Tuesday that it would not support the bill due to concerns about the growing national debt. “Our country is undeniably headed down a path of fiscal insolvency and rapidly approaching $23 trillion in debt. … All sides should go back to the drawing board and work around the clock, canceling recess if necessary, on a responsible budget agreement that serves American taxpayers better—not a $323 billion spending frenzy with no serious offsets,” the 31-member group said in a statement.
The deficit hawks at the Committee for Responsible Federal published “Five Reasons to Oppose the Budget Deal,” which include its purported $1.7 trillion cost over 10 years. CRFB noted that the agreement would increase discretionary spending by 21 percent during President Trump’s first term, pushing such spending to near-record levels.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) was more colorful in his criticism, saying, “You don’t have to be Euclid to understand the math here. We’re like Thelma and Louise in that car headed toward the cliff.” Nevertheless, Kennedy said he would consider supporting the deal.
Is the deficit hawk dead? The budget deal represents “the culmination of years of slipping fiscal discipline in Washington,” said Robert Costa and Mike DeBonis of The Washington Post, and it highlights the declining influence of fiscal conservatives in the capital, at least as far as policy is concerned. Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said the Republican Party’s credibility on fiscal restraint is “long gone.”
Although it may be too early to declare the fiscal hawk extinct – plenty of critics say the bird will return as soon as there’s a Democratic president – it certainly seems to be in ill health. As the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato said Wednesday: “A battered bird has been named to the list of endangered species. The ‘deficit hawk’ is on the road to extinction. Rarely spotted around Washington, D.C., the deficit hawk’s last remaining habitat is found in some state capitals.”
Some Republicans said that fiscal conservatism was never really a core Republican value, dating back to President Reagan’s tax-cut-and-spend policies, and that Paul Ryan’s emphasis on fiscal issues was an aberration. “It was never the party of Paul Ryan,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told the Post. “He’s a brilliant guy, but he filled a policy gap. The reality here is that Republicans were never going to get spending cuts with Speaker Pelosi running the House, and they didn’t want an economic meltdown or shutdown this summer.”
Is the whole debate missing the point? William Gale of the Brookings Institution, who served on President George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said he wasn’t sure why the budget deal was producing so much hostility, since it basically maintains the status quo and – more importantly – is focused solely on discretionary spending. “There *is* a long-term budget issue,” Gale tweeted Tuesday, “but cutting [discretionary spending] is not the way to go.”
Instead, Gale says that any serious fiscal plan must focus on the mandatory side of the ledger, where the rapidly increasing costs of health care and retirement are straining against revenues reduced by repeated rounds of tax cuts. Gale recommends a combination of entitlement reductions and revenue increases – a standard mix of policy options that faces an uncertain future, with well-entrenched interest groups standing opposed to movement in either direction.
Watch Jeb Bush Do His Best Donald Trump Impression with Stephen Colbert
Unless you've been in your own personal media blackout for the last few days, you're probably aware that Stephen Colbert kicked off his new show Tuesday night and that Jeb Bush was one of his first guests. While the maiden voyage of the new “Late Show” has drawn mixed reviews -- “promising, if he relaxes” says USA Today, referring to the host – the show provided plenty of entertaining bits and compelling if somewhat odd moments.
Like much of the show, Colbert’s conversation with Bush was a mixed bag. Both host and guest seemed a bit nervous and some of their lines fell flat. Surprisingly, one of the more entertaining parts of their conversation never made it on air: Colbert had Bush read some text written in the bombastic voice of Donald Trump. Bush was game for the joke, and the results are worth a look.
The fun at Trump's expense starts at the 2:32 mark, when Stephen Colbert refers to the "big, orange elephant in the room."
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Here’s Why Home Prices Are Climbing So Quickly
Want to buy a home but finding slim pickings? Blame the builders.
New home construction has not kept pace with the improving job market in recent years and is part of the reason that housing inventory is so scarce and home prices are growing so quickly, according to a report released today by the National Association of Realtors.
After over-building leading up to the housing bubble, developer laid off workers and scaled back construction by more than 75 percent. After the crash many of those workers migrated to other industries, making it harder for builders to quickly ramp up work. There are also fewer builders now than there were a decade ago, with many going bust in the bubble and others consolidating with competitors.
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While home starts have come back since the recession, the new NAR report finds that in two-thirds of markets homebuilding activity has not kept pace with the number of newly employed workers. In particular, construction of single-family homes remains at less than half its prerecession levels.
Many of the markets with the largest disparity of jobs versus home construction were hit hardest by the housing crisis but have fully rebounded, including San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego and Miami. New York is also among the top cities where home building has not kept pace.
There are several reasons that new home construction has grown so slowly in recent years, including rising construction and labor costs and tight credit. Despite those headwinds, new home construction is expected to grow by more than 25 percent this year.
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Millennials to Employers: Show Us the Money
When it comes to company loyalty, money matters to millennials. Twenty-nine percent of millennials say that a higher salary is the biggest contributor to their loyalty, according to data released Tuesday by the Staples Advantage Workplace Index.
That compares to 20 percent of the overall workforce who place a priority on salary. The difference could be related to the fact that millennials tend to make lower wages than other workers and face higher fixed costs on things like student loans and rent.
Still, the job market is tightening, making it easier for millennials who feel they are underpaid to look elsewhere for work. The unemployment rate for millennials has fallen by nearly 40 percent since its peak in 2010.
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Millennials are willing to work long hours but they want to be able to do so on their own terms. More than half of younger workers said that they work from home after the work day is over, compared to 39 percent of the all workers. Nearly half of millennials said that increased flexibility would improve their happiness.
Other important factors for millennials are office perks such as a gym or free lunches, having an eco-friendly office and a company culture that encourages breaks.
Whether or not they’re happy with their current roles, millennials are looking toward the future with ambition. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they expect to be in a management position in the next five years.
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Gas Prices at an 11-Year Low for Labor Day Weekend
Drivers will be paying less at the pump as we head into one of the largest travel weekends of the year. Gas prices over Labor Day weekend haven’t been this low since 2004.
The national average price of gas is currently $2.44 per gallon, 99 cents less than this time last year, according to AAA. The average consumer can expect to save $15 to $25 on each trip to the gas station.
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AAA estimates that 35.5 million people are planning to travel this weekend, a 1 percent increase from last year. The majority of travelers, 30.4 million, are expected to drive to their destinations, a rise of 1.1 percent from last year.
Gasoline prices are moving lower thanks to the falling price of crude oil. Oil has been hit by worries over economic growth in emerging markets, Iranian oil flooding the market and crude oil inventories rising due to economic and weather factors, a U.S. Energy Information Administration report finds.
For drivers, there’s more good news ahead. AAA expects gas prices to keep falling, with gas selling for $2 or less a gallon by Christmas in many parts of the U.S.
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SAT Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in a Decade
Student scores on the SAT have slipped to the lowest level in 10 years, according to new statistics from the College Board, again raising questions about education-reform efforts meant to improve student performance in high schools.
Just under 1.7 million students took the test this year, more than ever before. Only 41.9 percent of them reached the “SAT Benchmark” score of 1550, which indicates whether an individual is prepared for college or a career. Based on the SAT’s measure, more than 1 million students are not ready for college or for work.
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The average score for high-schoolers in the class of 2015 was 1490 out of a possible 2400, down 7 points from last year. The three sections of the test — reading, writing, and math — all saw declines of at least two points.
As has been the pattern for years, certain demographic groups performed better than others. Whites and Asians, on average, received higher scores than blacks and Latinos. Students from higher-earning families received higher scores than those from families with lower income. But scores among all demographic groups except for Asians went down.
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The low scores are an indication that improved testing scores for elementary school students aren’t translating to gains by high-schoolers. The stark contrast in scores among racial and ethnic groups may also be a sign of systemic problems that remain a barrier to educational success. Since 2006, the scores among white students have fallen six points, pulling the average down to 1,576. The average scores for black students have dropped 14 points to 1,277.
The College Board plans to introduce a new SAT exam next year. Changes will include more of a focus on math, fewer questions on vocabulary words and an elimination of the penalty for guessing. The idea, the College Board has said, is to make the test more about what students learn in high school and the skills that college will require.
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