Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

Why Believing Donald Trump Will Be the GOP Nominee Is Delusional

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens to a question at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames
REUTERS/Jim Young
By Eric Pianin

Despite his commanding lead at this early stage among GOP candidates, the 2016 nomination is anyone’s game. 

It is risky to put too much stock in the latest findings, including the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday. That’s because the national telephone survey of 1,000 adults included only 252 registered voters who said they would vote for a Republican, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.17 points.

Related: Why Jeb Bush’s Pragmatic Immigration Plan Has No Chance of Passing in the House

There are plenty of downsides to Trump’s candidacy – including his threat to mount a third-party campaign if he is denied the Republican nomination -- which has alarmed GOP leaders who are looking down the road to the general election.

Trump has the highest negatives of any of the top tier candidates, and a majority of Americans in the survey said they think Trump is hurting the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Democrats interviewed said Trump was harming his party’s image, but nearly half the Republicans interviewed said the same thing.

Political analyst Nate Silver notes that Trump ranks just 13th in overall favorability among Republicans in a series of national polls. “If you’re going to imply that a candidate is popular based on their receiving 20 percent of the vote, you ought to consider what the other 80 percent thinks about him,” Silver wrote recently in his FiveThirtyEight blog. “Most Republicans who don’t plan to vote for Trump are skeptical of him instead.”

Related: Donald Trump Just Showed Why His Campaign Is Doomed

What’s more, about three in four Latinos said they have a negative view of Trump – and that more than half consider his comments about lawless Mexican immigrants to be racist or highly inappropriate, according to a separate NBC News/Wall Street Journal Telemundo poll released today.

The survey of 250 Hispanic-American voters revealed widespread hostility towards Trump, with only 13 percent saying they have a positive view of him.

The Republican presidential frontrunner has said repeatedly that many Latino voters “love” and support him, and that he would win the majority of that vote if he ends up as his party’s nominee. There is little evidence in this poll to suggest Trump is dealing with reality.

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Americans Just Went on a $32 Billion Credit Card Shopping Spree

Credit cards are pictured in a wallet in Washington, February 21, 2010. REUTERS/Stelios Varias
© Stelios Varias / Reuters
By Millie Dent

Americans may be heading for another credit card crunch. After paying down almost $35 billion in credit card debt in the first quarter of the year, consumer charged up a storm in the second quarter, racking up $32.1 billion in new debt, according to CardHub, a credit card comparison site. CardHub says that’s the second highest quarterly total since it began keeping data on credit card debt in 2009.

While that buying binge could potentially signal improved confidence in the economy and in their own financial prospects, CardHub warns that the debt risks are building. It projects that consumers will close out the year with an annual net increase of more than $60 billion in credit card debt, with the total credit card debt outstanding climbing to more than $900 billion, the highest since the recession.

Related: 5 Cities with the Most Credit Card Debt

CardHub CEO Odysseas Papadimitriou says that jump brings Americans “perilously close to a tipping point at which balances become unsustainable and delinquency rates skyrocket.”

For 7 out of the past 10 quarters, consumers have racked up more debt than they’ve paid off. Papadimitriou cites that as evidence that consumers are going back to the bad habits they had before the economic downturn.

CardHub based its study on data from the Federal Reserve, and if the results are a sign of trouble then another new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that problem is even worse than it looks.  In a report called “Do We Know What We Owe,” the New York Fed found that people widely underestimate their credit card debt, telling the Fed’s survey-takers that it’s about 37 percent lower than what lenders say it is.

So if we are actually getting to a tipping point with credit card debt, it may be even closer than we realize.

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Watch Jeb Bush Do His Best Donald Trump Impression with Stephen Colbert

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush waves as he arrives to address a legislative luncheon held as part of the "Road to Majority" conference in Washington
REUTERS/Carlos Barria
By Michael Rainey

Unless you've been in your own personal media blackout for the last few days, you're probably aware that Stephen Colbert kicked off his new show Tuesday night and that Jeb Bush was one of his first guests. While the maiden voyage of the new “Late Show” has drawn mixed reviews -- “promising, if he relaxes” says USA Today, referring to the host – the show provided plenty of entertaining bits and compelling if somewhat odd moments.

Like much of the show, Colbert’s conversation with Bush was a mixed bag. Both host and guest seemed a bit nervous and some of their lines fell flat. Surprisingly, one of the more entertaining parts of their conversation never made it on air: Colbert had Bush read some text written in the bombastic voice of Donald Trump. Bush was game for the joke, and the results are worth a look.

The fun at Trump's expense starts at the 2:32 mark, when Stephen Colbert refers to the "big, orange elephant in the room."

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Here’s Why Home Prices Are Climbing So Quickly

New Homes
REUTERS/Gary Cameron
By Beth Braverman

Want to buy a home but finding slim pickings? Blame the builders.

New home construction has not kept pace with the improving job market in recent years and is part of the reason that housing inventory is so scarce and home prices are growing so quickly, according to a report released today by the National Association of Realtors.

After over-building leading up to the housing bubble, developer laid off workers and scaled back construction by more than 75 percent. After the crash many of those workers migrated to other industries, making it harder for builders to quickly ramp up work. There are also fewer builders now than there were a decade ago, with many going bust in the bubble and others consolidating with competitors.

Related: How a Smart Home Can Save You Time and Money

While home starts have come back since the recession, the new NAR report finds that in two-thirds of markets homebuilding activity has not kept pace with the number of newly employed workers. In particular, construction of single-family homes remains at less than half its prerecession levels.

Many of the markets with the largest disparity of jobs versus home construction were hit hardest by the housing crisis but have fully rebounded, including San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego and Miami. New York is also among the top cities where home building has not kept pace.

There are several reasons that new home construction has grown so slowly in recent years, including rising construction and labor costs and tight credit. Despite those headwinds, new home construction is expected to grow by more than 25 percent this year.

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Millennials to Employers: Show Us the Money

iStockphoto
By Beth Braverman

When it comes to company loyalty, money matters to millennials. Twenty-nine percent of millennials say that a higher salary is the biggest contributor to their loyalty, according to data released Tuesday by the Staples Advantage Workplace Index.

That compares to 20 percent of the overall workforce who place a priority on salary. The difference could be related to the fact that millennials tend to make lower wages than other workers and face higher fixed costs on things like student loans and rent.

Still, the job market is tightening, making it easier for millennials who feel they are underpaid to look elsewhere for work. The unemployment rate for millennials has fallen by nearly 40 percent since its peak in 2010.

Related: 18 Companies Americans Hate Dealing With the Most

Millennials are willing to work long hours but they want to be able to do so on their own terms. More than half of younger workers said that they work from home after the work day is over, compared to 39 percent of the all workers. Nearly half of millennials said that increased flexibility would improve their happiness.

Other important factors for millennials are office perks such as a gym or free lunches, having an eco-friendly office and a company culture that encourages breaks.

Whether or not they’re happy with their current roles, millennials are looking toward the future with ambition. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they expect to be in a management position in the next five years.

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Gas Prices at an 11-Year Low for Labor Day Weekend

A customer prepares to fill up his tank in a gasoline station in Nice December 5, 2014. REUTERS/Eric Gaillard
Eric Gaillard
By Millie Dent

Drivers will be paying less at the pump as we head into one of the largest travel weekends of the year. Gas prices over Labor Day weekend haven’t been this low since 2004. 

The national average price of gas is currently $2.44 per gallon, 99 cents less than this time last year, according to AAA. The average consumer can expect to save $15 to $25 on each trip to the gas station.

Related: 6 Reasons Gas Prices Could Fall Below $2 A Gallon

AAA estimates that 35.5 million people are planning to travel this weekend, a 1 percent increase from last year. The majority of travelers, 30.4 million, are expected to drive to their destinations, a rise of 1.1 percent from last year. 

Gasoline prices are moving lower thanks to the falling price of crude oil. Oil has been hit by worries over economic growth in emerging markets, Iranian oil flooding the market and crude oil inventories rising due to economic and weather factors, a U.S. Energy Information Administration report finds.

For drivers, there’s more good news ahead. AAA expects gas prices to keep falling, with gas selling for $2 or less a gallon by Christmas in many parts of the U.S.

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