The Fiscal Times Newsletter - August 28, 2017

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The Fiscal Times Newsletter - August 28, 2017

By The Fiscal Times Staff
August 29, 2017

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How Hurricane Harvey Could Transform the Budget Battle in Washington

The costs of Hurricane Harvey could climb as high as $100 billion, according to at least one estimate. While it will still take weeks for the full extent of the damage to become clear, the catastrophic flooding — and a recovery effort that is likely to take years — will almost certainly have an impact on some critical upcoming deadlines for lawmakers in D.C.

White House and congressional GOP officials told The Washington Post on Sunday that they expected to begin discussing emergency funding for disaster relief soon. Those discussions could present challenges for other items on President Trump’s agenda, from tax reform to a border wall with Mexico.

President Trump had threatened to shutdown the government if any funding bill failed to include money for the border wall with Mexico. But the need for disaster relief funding — and the political risk of failing to deliver such funding — could force the president and Congress to act more quickly to fund the government and avoid a partial federal shutdown. “That is because a government shutdown could sideline agencies involved in a rescue and relief effort that officials are predicting will last years,” Mike DeBonis and Damian Paletta of The Washington Post report.

The balance of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund stood at just $3.8 billion at the end of July — with $1.6 billion of that money set to be spent elsewhere. The funds needed for Harvey recovery alone may well exceed the total disaster relief budget for the current and upcoming fiscal years, The Post noted. Also, Congress must reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program, which is more than $24 billion in debt, by the end of September and ensure that its legal borrowing limit, now around $30 billion, is sufficient to cover expected claims from Harvey victims.

William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center, who served as a former GOP staff director for the Senate Budget Committee, said the hurricane could also lead to the debt ceiling being raised faster than it otherwise might have been so as to ensure that the Treasury can provide emergency cash to storm-hit areas.

That’s not to say the disaster relief funding won’t devolve into a congressional fight. Both Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012 led to budget fights in Congress in which Republicans resisted disaster funding that wasn’t offset by other spending cuts.
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#Harvey in perspective. So much rain has fallen, we've had to update the color charts on our graphics in order to effectively map it.
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Top Budget Expert Thinks We’re Headed for a Government Shutdown

Noted budget expert Stan Collender – who is sometimes referred to as “Mr. Budget” and who tweets under the name, @TheBudgetGuy – says that odds are better than even that the federal government will shut down this fall. Disputes over raising the debt ceiling are also in the cards, though with slightly less probability of a chaotic ending.

Collender says in Forbes that the problem lies with the current internal dynamics of the Republicans in Congress. In any other year, single-party control would mean less chaos in budget matters, not more. But the GOP is unusually divided right now. Collender argues there are seven contentious factions that are making it hard to get things done. In the House, there’s the conservative Freedom Caucus and the more moderate Tuesday Group. The Senate is similarly divided, but there is no real alignment between the Senate and House versions of each group. Then there’s the leadership of each chamber, which have their own interests and responsibilities that sometimes clash with the others. Last but not least, there’s President Trump, who is becoming something of a party unto himself.

These seven factions could make it very difficult to solve the two pressing fiscal problems – raising the debt ceiling to avoid a potential default on U.S. debt and funding the government to avoid a shutdown – that loom before October 1.

On the debt ceiling, the Trump administration has called for a “clean” debt ceiling hike, unencumbered by any other policy changes. But the Freedom Caucus has sent mixed signals on the subject, and there’s a good chance that the hardline conservatives won’t play along with the moderates to raise the ceiling, forcing House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) to turn to Democrats for help – in which case, the Freedom Caucus could push for Ryan’s ouster, as they did with former speaker John Boehner in 2015.

On funding the government, a short-term spending bill, called a continuing resolution, seems like a relatively easy solution, even if it only puts off the budget fight temporarily. But President Trump, the ultimate wild card, has altered the game by threatening to veto any such funding if it fails to include money for a border wall. It’s all too easy to imagine that showdown ending with a shutdown.
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The High Cost of Debt Ceiling Brinksmanship

Every time Congress dithers on raising the debt ceiling, the Treasury Department is forced to take “extraordinary measures” to make sure it has enough cash to pay the country’s bills in full and on time without hitting the ceiling. Kellie Mejdrich at Roll Call reminds us that these measures come with a considerable cost, even without a default on the debt.

The Treasury began employing extraordinary measures last March, when the suspension of the debt limit brokered in a budget deal in November 2016 expired. With the debt ceiling back in force, the Treasury had to look for ways to avoid hitting the limit, currently $19.8 trillion. Treasury has several options — it defines four of them here — which involve not spending all of the money is it legally authorized to spend. For example, the Treasury may avoid making full investments in pension and savings accounts of government employees, delaying payments until a later date.

These measures tend to make the financial markets nervous, especially over time as the threat of default grows, which can move interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. The Bipartisan Policy Center points out that the current debt ceiling impasse sent short-term Treasury bill rates higher in July, raising the costs of issuing debt for the U.S. government.

Looking back at the debt ceiling brinksmanship of 2011-2012, the Government Accountability Office concluded that delaying the increase in the debt limit cost the Treasury at least $1.3 billion:

“Delays in raising the debt limit can create uncertainty in the Treasury market and lead to higher Treasury borrowing costs. GAO estimated that delays in raising the debt limit in 2011 led to an increase in Treasury’s borrowing costs of about $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2011. However, this does not account for the multiyear effects on increased costs for Treasury securities that will remain outstanding after fiscal year 2011. Further, according to Treasury officials, the increased focus on debt limit-related operations as such delays occurred required more time and Treasury resources and diverted Treasury’s staff away from other important cash and debt management responsibilities.”
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Robert Samuelson: Why Trump’s Tax Reform Won’t Work

It’s hard to imagine that tax reform is No. 1 on the Republicans’ to-do list when they still don’t have a 2018 budget. Worse, they still haven’t agreed to raise the debt ceiling, as the federal government continues to draw down what was $350 billion in cash reserves in January to $50.6 billion as of last Thursday, according to The Washington Post.

Maybe that’s why the Post’s economics columnist, Robert J. Samuelson, was inspired to challenge the GOP’s idea that cutting taxes is “tax reform,” which implies an improvement over the old system.

Samuelson is clearly disturbed about Trump’s tax plan, which primarily benefits the rich at the expense of the poor and adds an additional $3.5 trillion in deficits over a decade, according to the Tax Policy Center. It’s not clear how that’s an improvement.

Samuelson says, “If tax cuts were initially financed by more deficit spending, the costs of today’s lower taxes would be transferred to future generations.” That now includes the largest generation in America — the Millennials — as Baby Boomers die off.

The key argument against tax cuts, Samuelson says, is that contrary to Republican claims, they don’t stimulate significantly faster growth. “Tax cuts may cushion a recession and improve the business climate, but they don’t automatically raise long-term growth. A 2014 study by the Congressional Research Service put it this way: ‘A review of statistical evidence suggests that both labor supply and savings and investment are relatively insensitive to tax rates.’”

For Samuelson, the facts point in a different direction: “The truth is that we need higher, not lower, taxes. … We are undertaxed. Government spending, led by the cost of retirees, regularly exceeds our tax intake.”

But will Republicans raise taxes? That’s not a likely outcome given the current budget debate, which would need a dose of honesty that is sorely missing.
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US Companies Push Back on One Idea for Taxing Their Foreign Profits

The corporate lobbying push on tax reform is on in full force. If you watch cable news, you’ve likely seen ads from the Business Roundtable and other groups that are already spending millions of dollars to promote tax reform on television and radio. But not all the efforts are so public.

In a piece in Sunday’s Wall Street Journal, Richard Rubin offers details on one behind-the-scenes campaign by corporations to shape tax reform. Rubin reports that a group of large U.S. companies called the Alliance for Competitive Taxation issued a policy paper earlier this month warning against the “unintended and adverse consequences” of introducing a minimum tax for foreign earnings.

Such a minimum tax is reportedly one option under consideration as part of a shift to a territorial tax system, with a lower corporate rate for domestic profits, intended to incentivize companies to bring back some of the profits they have stashed in foreign countries to avoid paying a high tax rate on those earnings at home.

The minimum rate would be below the new statutory corporate rate and act to reduce the incentive to keep foreign profits in other countries.

But the companies in the alliance, including Eli Lilly, United Technologies and UPS, warned that a minimum tax would put American corporations at a disadvantage to their global competitors.

Kyle Pomerleau of the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation wrote recently that a broad minimum tax on foreign earnings would still give companies incentive to move their headquarters out of the U.S. to avoid the tax.

But Chye-Ching Huang, deputy director of federal tax policy at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, tweeted Monday that multinational corporations want a “cartoon” version of the territorial tax system — one that would bring “0% US tax on their foreign profits. Giant incentive to shift profits offshore. Weak guardrails to stop it.”
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Americans Are Happier with This Car Brand Than Any Other

<strong>Repair cost for 2011-2012</strong>: $377.71  <br /><strong>Overall rank</strong>: 7<br /><strong>Common repair problems</strong>: Replace ignition coil(s) (average repair cost: $321); replace oil control valve (average repair cost: $587); and re
Reuters/Andrew Burton
By Beth Braverman
August 25, 2015

Americans may love their cars, but these days they love them a little less.

Consumer satisfaction with their cars has fallen for the third consecutive year, reflecting unhappiness with increasing recalls and rising prices, according to new data from the American Customer Satisfaction Index.

Car reliability has improved overall in the past decade but the number of recalls is at an all-time high. “This should not happen with modern manufacturing technology and has negative consequences for driver safety, costs, and customer satisfaction,” ACSI Chairman and founder Claes Fornell said in a statement.

Car owners in the second quarter of 2015 reported a 40 percent increase in recalls year over year. The most high profile recalls involve Takata airbags, affecting more than 17 million older-model vehicles built by 11 different auto makers.

Related: Senators Urge Recall of All Vehicles with Takata Airbags

Looking at individual brands, the index shows that Americans prefer Japanese and luxury brand cars, with Lexus displacing Mercedes Benz as the brand with the highest overall satisfaction (84 out of 100). Mercedes tied for second place with Acura and Lincoln.

The average for all autos fell 3.7 points to 79. The only American automaker to rank above average was Ford with a score of 81. General Motors and Chrysler saw their scores fall modestly to 79 and 75 respectively.

Despite a growing decline in satisfaction, Americans are holding onto their vehicles longer than ever. The average age of cars and light trucks is now 11.5 years old, according to a report issued last month by IHS Automotive.

Top Reads from the Fiscal Times:

Watch Chris Christie Play the Enforcer in His Latest Ad

By Martin Matishak
August 24, 2015

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s presidential campaign has adopted “Telling It Like It Is” as its slogan and, according to his latest national television ad, he wants to tell voters just how scary the world is today.

The 30-second spot, titled “Law Enforcer,” opens with Christie decrying “lawlessness in America and around the world under Barack Obama.”

He rattles off a series of threats, speaking over dramatic music cues and flashing images.

Related: As Stocks Tank, Trump Warns China Could ‘Bring Us Down’

“Sanctuary cities engulfing Americans in crime. Drugs running rampant and destroying lives. ISIS beheading Christians. Iranian radicals with nuclear weapons,” he says ominously.

“Now, Hillary Clinton thinks the law doesn't apply to her,” Christie asks as images of a computer server appear on screen. “Really?”

The former U.S. attorney argues that the country needs a “strong law enforcer as president, someone who says what he means and means what he says.”

The doom and gloom ad, featuring a score more typical of a television drama than a presidential ad, is running on the Fox News Channel and marks Christie’s latest attempt to spark interest in his White House bid.

The two-term governor has consistently lost support in opinion polls since the inaugural GOP presidential debate, while political outsiders like Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have surged.

Related: Rand Paul Gets a Break in Kentucky, but It’s Going to Cost Him

Last week a CNN/ORC survey put Christie in 11th place, garnering only three percent support among GOP voters.

If the trend continues, Christie could lose his spot on the main stage at the CNN/Reagan Library debate on September 16 and relegated to the second-tier.

Top Reads from the Fiscal Times:

How to Cut Your Homeowner’s Insurance in Half

iStockphoto
By Beth Braverman
August 24, 2015

That lousy credit score is costing you more than a good rate on a loan.

Insurance premiums for homeowners with excellent credit are half the price of premiums for homeowners with poor credit, according to a new report by insuranceQuotes.com. Homeowners with median credit pay about a third more than those with excellent credit.

The difference in premiums varies by state, with homeowners with poor credit in 38 states paying at least twice as much those with excellent credit. Homeowners in West Virginia have the biggest premium gap, with those with poor credit paying more than three times what homeowners with excellent credit pay.

Homeowners in Washington, D.C., and Ohio had the next highest gap in premiums (185 percent), followed by Montana (179 percent).

Related; The Easiest Way to Cut Your Home Insurance Premiums

In general, insurers are putting a higher emphasis on credit scores than they did last year, with scores having a bigger impact this year than last in 29 states. “It’s more important than ever to maintain a solid credit rating by paying their bills on time, keeping their balances low, and correcting errors on their credit reports,” Laura Adams, insurangeQuotes.com senior analyst said in a statement.

California, Massachusetts and Maryland do not allow insurers to consider credit in setting prices, and insurers in Florida don’t use it.

The average U.S. homeowner’s insurance premium is around $950. In addition to making an effort to boost their credit, homeowners should shop around every few years to see if they can find a better rate.

Top Reads from the Fiscal Times:

Dow Sheds Nearly 600 Points, S&P 500 in Correction in a Wild Day on Wall Street

Specialist trader Zelles works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
© Brendan McDermid / Reuters
By Evelyn Cheng
August 24, 2015

U.S. stocks plunged more than 3.5 percent on Monday, closing off session lows in high volume trade as fears of slowing growth in China pressured global markets.

S&P 500 ended nearly 80 points lower, off session lows of about 104 points lower but still in correction territory after the tech sector failed intraday attempts to post gains. Cumulative trade volume was 13.94 billion shares, the highest volume day since Aug. 10, 2011.

The major averages had a volatile day of trade, plunging sharply in the open and more than halving losses to trade less than 1 percent lower on the day, before closing down more than 3.5 percent.

"I think we probably rallied too fast. A lot of people that covered their shorts got their shorts covered," said Peter Coleman, head trader at Convergex. He noted the Dow was still trading several hundred points off session lows and that a close better than 500 points lower would be a good sign.

Related: The Stock Market's Fed Fever Is Only Going to Get Worse

"The market's going to be focused on China tonight to see if they come on tonight with something that would be considered a viable (way) to stimulate growth in that economy," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended nearly 600 points lower after trading in wide range of between roughly 300 to 700 points lower in the minutes leading up to the close.

In the open, the index fell as much as 1,089 points, making Monday's move its biggest intraday swing in history. In midday trade, the index pared losses to trade about 110 points lower.
The blue-chip index posted its biggest 3-day point loss in history of 1,477.45 points.

During the first 90 minutes of trade, the index traveled more than 3,000 points in down and up moves.

"I'm hoping for some stability here but I think markets remain very, very vulnerable to bad news (out of) emerging markets," said Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management.

He attributed some of the sharp opening losses to exchange-traded funds. "It's so easy to move a bajillion dollars in a nanosecond."

Trading in stocks and exchange-traded funds was paused more than 1,200 times on Monday, Dow Jones said, citing exchanges. Such pauses total single digits on a normal day, the report said. An increase or decline of five percent or more triggers a five-minute pause in trading, Dow Jones said.

The major averages came sharply off lows in midday trade, with the Nasdaq off as low as less than half a percent after earlier falling 8.8 percent. Apple traded more than 1.5 percent lower after reversing losses to briefly jump more than 2 percent.

"There was sort of a lack of follow-through after the morning's crazy action in the overall market," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth. "The selling really dissipated once we got to around 10 o'clock."

He attributed some of the late morning gains to a short squeeze and bargain hunting.

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, noted that the sharp opening losses were due to great uncertainty among traders and the implementation of a rare market rule.

The New York Stock Exchange invoked Rule 48 for the Monday stock market open, Dow Jones reported.
The rule allows NYSE to open stocks without indications. "It was set up for situations like this," Hogan said. The rule was last used in the financial crisis.

Stock index futures for several major indices fell several percentage points before the open to hit limit down levels.
Circuit breakers for the S&P 500 will halt trade when the index decreases from its previous close by the following three levels: 7 percent, 13 percent, and 20 percent.

"Fear has taken over. The market topped out last week," said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital. "We saw important technical levels break last week. Huge shift in investor psychology."


"The market is not falling on actual facets of a sub-prime situation. It's falling on fear of the unload of China. That's really behind this move," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 40. Earlier in the session the index leaped above 50 for the first time since February 2009.

"When the VIX is this high it means there's some panic out there," said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

However, he said with stocks more than halving losses he "wouldn't be surprised if we closed positive." "If you could move it that far you could move it another 350 points" on the Dow," he said.

Overseas, European stocks plunged, with the STOXX Europe 600 down more than 5 percent, while the Shanghai Composite dropped 8.5 percent, its greatest one-day drop since 2007.

Treasury yields came off session lows, with the U.S. 10-year yield at 2.01 percent and the 2-year yield at 0.58 percent.

The U.S. dollar fell more than 1.5 percent against major world currencies, with the euro near $1.16 and the yen stronger at 119 yen versus the greenback.

A U.S. Treasury Department spokesperson said in a statement that "We do not comment on day-to-day market developments. As always, the Treasury Department is monitoring ongoing market developments and is in regular communication with its regulatory partners and market participants."

The Dow transports ended more than 3.5 percent lower to approach bear market territory.

About 10 stocks declined for every advancer on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 901 million and a composite volume of 4 billion as of 2:05 p.m.

Crude oil futures settled down $2.21, or 5.46 percent, at $38.24 a barrel, the lowest since February 2009. In intraday trade, crude oil futures for October delivery fell as much as $2.70 to $37.75 a barrel, a six-and-a-half-year low.

Gold futures settled down $6.10 at $1,153.60 an ounce.

This post originally appeared on CNBC. Read More at CNBC:

Dow Plunges into Correction Territory: Here’s How Bad Friday’s Market Bloodbath Was

The Fiscal Times
By Michael Rainey
August 21, 2015

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday as slowing growth in China and worries about a possible rate hike by the Fed took their toll. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day down 531 points for a 3.12 percent loss. The S&P lost 65 points (-3.16 percent) — its worst day since Aug. 8, 2011 — and the Nasdaq lost 171 (-3.52 percent). For the first time since 2011, the Dow is now in a correction, meaning it has lost 10 percent from its peak. The S&P is nearing correction territory, too, having lost 7.5 percent since its May 21 closing high.

Related: The Stock Market's Fed Fever Is Only Going to Get Worse

The selloff was widespread, with 491 of the S&P 500 stocks ending the day in the red and only 11 managing to advance (the S&P 500 actually includes 502 stocks). For the week, 487 of the S&P 500 stocks fell and only 15 gained. In total, the S&P 500 lost a collective $1.14 trillion in market value on the week. Yes, trillion with a "T."

This snapshot from finviz of the performance of stocks in the S&P 500 gives a sense of Friday's carnage (Click it to enlarge):